The Euro is in absolute free fall. It wasn’t even three months ago that the EURUSD was trading at 1.32. Now, it’s inside 1.22 (1.216, as I’m writing). That’s an 8% drop in 3 months, folks.

I don’t care about market statistics, or elections, or Chinese stimulus. If the euro keeps falling against the dollar like this, it will be absolute carnage.

Even as we speak, US imports are taking it to the chest. Moreover, we have seen that this is not the sort of currency move that aids the home country, in the here and now. Perhaps, after they start to pick up the pieces, having a weak currency will be useful for the Spaniards.

But at the moment, price spikes from this wildness have the propensity to send half of Europe into cardiac arrest.

At this rate, the EU won’t be around by Christmas, and all US growth will be dead and gone.

Comments »

I spent the day in the heat, painting.

The healthcare decision was bullshit. How can you tax a product some people don’t want to buy? Fuck you very much, Roberts, I hope you choke on cancer you dirty turncoat.

If I thought Obama was going to win reelection, that’s changed now. They just threw a firecracker into an army ant nest. No amount of PR media spin bullshit is going to save the liberals from this. Democrat congressmen had better stay 1,000 yards away from any party convention center, because they’re dead.

My only solace is knowing that sometime in the next two years, we’ll experience a bond crisis, just like Europe – a.k.a. that place that we just have to be like because their healthcare is so awesome – and it will send prices soaring, effectively killing off all these jackasses I’m supposed to be insuring and driving anyone who promoted this from office.

We are very close to a purging fire. The people who pushed this are the same people who can’t balance a checkbook. We have a string of major events coming into the close of the year – the debt ceiling and the tax extensions being two of them. Let’s see how interested people are in buying bonds when they see fuckers like Rangel try and count on public television.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the old idiots are all still dumb. There was some rumor of a can kick. Okay, sure. Let me hear Merkel say it.

I guess if they want to destroy the euro, that’s fine. Commodities will keep falling, because the dollar will keep spiking until Bernanke can’t stomach it anymore. And a can kick in no way helps their economies.

I’m slowly gathering much silver for my person, almost like I have a bow tie on. Life’s grand in America now, aside from all that corporate destruction coming our way out of Europe. But the European implosion is a warning, as well as an opportunity. Commodities will continue to be eviscerated for the next one to two years – I wouldn’t be surprised if silver flirts with the teens. But it’s all a flight to safety. It always has been. After that, all I can see is the writing on the wall for the United States.

After Italy’s out of the way, the only thing staving off an American debt run is the ability of Chicago or Albany politicians, whose sole election strategy constitutes promising uneducated urban rats lots of bribes or building ponzi schemes out of public coffers, that this country is good for the money.

We are so fucked.

Comments »

Finishing the day, I’d like to remind you that sometimes things can get extremely out of hand – by a factor of 6 beyond anything you ever thought possible.

Resting in my office from a busy day, I’m finally sitting down to catch up on some pieces and finding my breath.

$ERY, after all, just smashed through all moving averages, and is now on the high side of the range, inside of a single session. ERY is basically a trade against gasoline and to a lesser extent, oil. Does that feel like “normal” behavior to you.

The plush leather of my chair beneath me radiates heat from the sunlight leaking in. And the cold air of the 9th floor office mingles with differentials of warmer current from the dry, ninety degree heat from outside.

There were an expansive multitude who were counting on more easing. I warned you incessantly that this was not such a straightforward issue. I cannot help you now.

Far below, I see the many talentless hedge fund managers caught long commodities beyond their capacity to handle.

The margin calls are about to begin.

Comments »

Shhh. Keep your head down.

Let me show you something. (Glances, first left, then right).

Here, come see. Take a look at this:

That’s the dollar you are insisting is so high that “Bernanke MUST act”.

I know. Doesn’t look that high to me either.

I know; but Ben is just clamming around until he can break skulls and fling free money everywhere, like he’s skiing with hookers in Bernie Madoff’s penthouse.

I know. I know…

But, let me fling some ice water down your back for a minute here.

What if, when Ben says “Monetary policy isn’t a Panacea,”…he means it?

Comments »

Good afternoon. I hope I find you well and refreshed from a relaxing, long weekend.

At the moment, I’m sitting politely eating a piece of banana bread, spread liberally with cream cheese, while plugging away at a few light problems in the office.

I did not look at the markets at all this weekend, save for a brief jaunt on Twitter, where I caught up on only a modest amount of news. In fact, I completely swore off work, for the last few days. I needed to; my condition is now the extreme opposite of what it was in the winter of 2010. Rather than working for recreation in a leisurely life, I am now relaxing for recreation in a busy life. Which is how things ought to be.

Now, for the markets, I am torn of two minds. The first looks at the state of affairs and thinks “I should press my bets.” I have not yet fully recovered from last year, and I like my chances. Global economies suck, even after such immense interventions as we’ve witnessed, and I truly believe that further easing and money printing will catch the world with its pants down.

Money printing will cause further contraction. Look at Europe; they need it just to uphold what little productivity they have. ECB intervention can at best hope to hold things to the current trajectory, which is down.

Many economies that all need to export to one another at the same time are destined for hardship.

However, the other mind that I am of suggests maybe things are set for a very sharp rally. The number of euro shorts have increased by double digit percentages week over week for several weeks now. This size of a crowd is probably littered with the unwashed masses; the kind of men and women it’s better to just not have on your team at all because they can only invite pain and suffering onto themselves and those around them.

So my guess is we get a big rally shortly. It will be followed by more downside – at least until the middle of June, when “Fed Day” starts to grace the headlines.

Comments »

Well well well well well…

My targets for ERY are $16-17.

My targets for SCO are $48-50.

My targets for TVIX are $18-20.

I’ll be buying a round of SLV or AGQ (hat tip to Chivo) when spot silver gets below $27.

I’ll follow up with a purchase of real physical silver when the $EURUSD gets close to last year’s lows – around 1.26-1.27; somewhere in there.

Around the same time, I VOW ON ALL THAT IS HOLY AND SACRED TO LIGHTEN UP THIS GOD FORSAKEN SHORT OF ENERGY, WHICH OH SO NEARLY CLAIMED THE LAST OF MY SANITY.

Merry Maymass,

Cain Hammond Thaler

Comments »