Category Archives: Commentary
You didn’t seriously believe you – you – could keep down the most powerful bull market ever created!?
Hah! How would you have accomplished this?
By quoting idiotic fraction-of-a-percent fluctuations in the most manipulated bond market ever…?
Even now, stocks are turning higher, off of the two day bottom. All bears are going to be delivered to the pillory; before being driven onto stakes in the public square.
How dare you, sirs and ma’ams.
Michigan is making up for the unusually warm weather we’ve received this winter by dousing us into zero degree temperatures. Detroit was on emergency patrol yesterday, trying to shepherd as many of the homeless as possible into shelters, to avoid them freezing to death.
The markets are churning a little here. But I am loath to give lip service to the sort of unfounded pessimism that is gripping the cowards of Twitter. Believe the rumors of broken-ness and impending reversal to your own grave misfortune. Because we have higher yet to go.
I am pressing my luck and bets. RGR is selling off, but the stock was up 33% in a month. My other down position is CCJ, which is experiencing the typical terror-burdens that grip its share price at least once per 3-6 month run.
Precious metals continue to rebound, and are setting up for the next grand phase, in my opinion. This much currency manipulation will inevitably lead to long strides in the metals, particularly if things don’t break down. The recent “Gold Bug Bashing” we paid spectacle to in December is an annual tradition of sorts – not unlike a classic European festival. It happens every year, led by clowns and street performers. Not the kind of people you ever bother to consult with outside. Precious metal investors have been well vindicated in their thesis over the last 20 years – it’s not like that will be stopping now that the printing presses are stepping into high gear.
At the close of the day, I find myself down a mere .45%, despite the CCJ blowup. The rest of my holdings more than compensated for the trouble.
I draw breath easily while relaxing in my chair. The sun is out and her rays are peaking in through the drapes.
And the winter solstice is coming soon.
Truly, this is no bull market. Today’s epic bloodbath will have no rivals in history. The great minds of Twitter, bless them, were able to foresee this calamity in their grand wisdom. Today, they have saved us all a great deal of money, by lighting up the feed in a fit of madness, lasting approximately from the hours of eleven to one.
As we move into the final hour of trading, I see that the losses are just mounting.
Why, my AEC position is only up one and a half percent. CCJ can barely maintain its scream higher into the close. And the rest of my portfolio is only trying to close flat.
Commodities are flagging this as a deflationary environment, no contestation.
Spanish and Italian debt is in the immediate process of tearing apart a civilization, and American yields are only higher than they’ve been since August.
This has all the marks of the end of an era. Should none of us wake up tomorrow, I would be forced to tell you, “I told you so.”
God save the Queen.
In respite of my preoccupied condition,
I took a moment from my day to watch as the market skipped off the lows with such violent force as to crush short seller’s dreams. It appears that I had a bad feed. It was showing the market at half its losses and I thought it was happening right now. Oops
In many ways, my current affairs are a blessing – they keep me from obsessing over the gyrations of a market digesting huge gains, and force me to take stock of the world only at night, when I cannot act exuberantly and must carefully plan out the next day’s actions in advance.
It gives me time to look over the data and keep things in perspective.
I do not much like the way this market has been behaving, but there are three things that hold me steady:
1) We aren’t really down much at all
2) Free money
I’m regretful if you were hoping for the bearish Cain Hammond Thaler of last year. But I’m not getting suckered into that hole again.
Last week was a storm on my desk; a flurry of papers demanding my attention, with no lapses in between.
This week is off to a similar start. But, I cannot leave my post unmanned for so long. Ergo, I have stolen a few minutes today to communicate with each of you.
The market is “correcting”, if that’s what you can call this. Weakness after the QE3-leak ramp is hardly something to fear. The Fed is sending another $600 billion directly into the market’s arm – they have simply gotten clever about how they phrase it. Chill.
BAS has had a rough few weeks. After two failed breakouts, it collapsed below my initiation. Yet, the company is still a buy, I feel. The cause of weakness is well known and anything less than the worst outcome will result in extreme “cheapness” being apparent; leading to gains.
This winter will be rough on natural gas – thus BAS may continue to falter. But BAS is a servicer, not a well owner. They have great cash and are best positioned to benefit from a continued natural gas expansion. This is a long term trend and it will continue to reveal itself, in time.
Multifamily and nuclear energy are getting hit by smear pieces, from all angles.
Multifamily is being accused of “weakness” as renting demand “diminishes.” Mind you, that this rental weakness seems to have left occupancies totally unharmed, at 95%+. But we shall see at the next string of earnings reports.
A stream of slanderous articles proclaiming nuclear “too hyped” have come out in the usual venues, and just before one of the major supplies of second source uranium is being set to be taken off the market, no less. Hmmm…
I can appreciate the point of the articles, which is to say “hey, reactor recovery from the ‘Fukushima jitters’ will not be V-shaped”. Fine; but it’s not like nuclear stocks have been just gallivanting higher. The equities themselves have been abhorrent – and now is the time to buy. You cannot look at the price of uranium by itself; the market is too thinly traded. You have to look at Cameco, cornering the fucking market, expanding their production by leaps and bounds, to see the whole picture.
Alright, I am needed. Have a good day.