The Meltdown Shall Continue

China pushed tonight to throw 50 billion yuan into their markets. 50 billion yuan is $8 billion. Does SHIBOR look like an $8 billion problem to you?

Looks like a little bit bigger of an issue than that.

Reports that China had credit issues have been disseminating for years. The background here is that China stemmed credit to get costs under control, but in doing so many of their corporations were going under, unable to obtain financing. That’s the funny thing about statists – when credit dries up, only the well connected and morally popular can get loans for anything. The black market for credit was pushing rates that would make a loan shark blush.

To tap into those double digit interest rates, the rumor was that China’s finance markets were running money out the back door and into the black markets.

If this is the tipping point for China, my calls just as recently as yesterday for 1,540 SP will be fond memories, because we’ll pass through them like a hot blade through butter.

Do yourself a favor and throw out everything you were working on yesterday. It’s worthless now. Start over from a point without preconceived notions. You’ll save yourself money in the long haul.

Most Excellent

Needless to say, I decided to edge long at exactly the wrong time. Ben suckered me in, and my once strong 30% cash position has been whittled away to a mere 10%.

This selloff is going to hurt, delivering its full force directly against the 9th floor, shaking the very walls.

But I find that I am willing to wait it out. The concerns that are driving this selloff are immaterial.

Spanish insolvency, fiscal cliffs, Chinese communists and Ben’s retirement – the four horsemen are dotting the sky and Twitter is like a dumping ground for snarky comments.

Earnings and growth are slowing and Bob Pisani is nowhere to be found.

The funny thing is I was sitting around in exactly the position of the bears this time last year, guffawing in between comments of doom and chugging from a golden chalice.

Let me tell you how this ends for the shorts.

First, they get run over by a stampeding flock of turkey’s. Seasonality adjustments and earnings projections tick up with bad modeling methods. A bottom in housing prices is called for the spring. Employment looks extra rosy with the holiday shopping.

Then Santa comes and mows the surviving shorts down with his sleigh.

This is how the holiday season works.

Let’s review the “impending demise” of civilization. Spanish insolvency can be flooded with EU money. The EU collapse comes from price inflation and manufacturing contraction, not outright defaults. Chinese communists are scary but China can’t exactly afford to have foreign investment flee the country at this precise moment. The fiscal cliff can be voted away.

And after his presidential inauguration, Mitt Romney is going to be ushered into a back room where central bankers will begin the process of extorting him. But even if they fail, Ben has plenty of time to sink so much money into dark pools there’s no chance of reversing his policies.

Why do we need to embrace the end of humanity right now? It’s the holidays. Can’t it wait until next June?

So Dramatic

As the market is off a whopping fraction of a percent, commentators are literally soiling themselves on live television, trying to time the next selloff.

Oil reversed yesterday – to a flurry of publications informing us that the move higher is over with.

Bond analysts are flipping out about Europe.

Romney made some comment most everyone I hang out with agrees with – half of all American’s are lazy tits with zero self-worth – and now a few ancient and withered CNN “journalists” are creaming their pants insisting Obama now somehow has this election in the bag.

And China is thinking of crushing Japan because of some island that might have oil rights.

Folks, this is obviously a drama day. I’m checking my brain out.

Do you understand insignificant this selloff is?

Do you get how high all commodities ramped over the last three weeks as the QE announcement was obviously leaked?

Do you see that European bond yields are still lower than they’ve been all year?

Do you understand that CNN journalists all dorm together in a crawl space and haven’t made a correct prediction in the last 15 years? That the polls coming out have fluctuated consistently by 3% or more, leaving Obama and Romney (the guy supposedly nobody likes) in a virtual tie?

Do you get that Japan has nukes too?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. I’m closing the 9th floor for business early today. My things are packed. I’m closing the door behind me – the lights are flipped off as my hand slides quickly out before the latch locks tight.

Today is just too stupid to get involved with. I’ll see you tomorrow.

How, Jimmy?

I just finished perusing over Jim Roger’s most recent comments on the Eurozone; and I find I generally agree with everything he has to say.

Europe is playing a fast game of bluffing when everyone already knows what they have. It’s destined to fail. Only a combination of zealots trying to save their little project, high frequency speculators, and the totally uninformed will be caught exposed to Europe’s bonds.

So why, then, is Jim Roger’s bullish on China???

It’s like he has no idea where China’s economy comes from. I’ll give you as many guesses as you’d like.

When half of China’s GDP comes from ponying shit to Europe and the US, how can you forecast an EU implosion and then make the jump to “oh well, that nation that doesn’t know how to do anything but sell cheap labor to bigger nations will be just dandy.”

It’s like trying to argue that a pilot every pilot on a plane can have a suffer heart attacks midflight but then predict zero casualties amongst the passengers.

The Meltdown Shall Continue

China pushed tonight to throw 50 billion yuan into their markets. 50 billion yuan is $8 billion. Does SHIBOR look like an $8 billion problem to you?

Looks like a little bit bigger of an issue than that.

Reports that China had credit issues have been disseminating for years. The background here is that China stemmed credit to get costs under control, but in doing so many of their corporations were going under, unable to obtain financing. That’s the funny thing about statists – when credit dries up, only the well connected and morally popular can get loans for anything. The black market for credit was pushing rates that would make a loan shark blush.

To tap into those double digit interest rates, the rumor was that China’s finance markets were running money out the back door and into the black markets.

If this is the tipping point for China, my calls just as recently as yesterday for 1,540 SP will be fond memories, because we’ll pass through them like a hot blade through butter.

Do yourself a favor and throw out everything you were working on yesterday. It’s worthless now. Start over from a point without preconceived notions. You’ll save yourself money in the long haul.

Most Excellent

Needless to say, I decided to edge long at exactly the wrong time. Ben suckered me in, and my once strong 30% cash position has been whittled away to a mere 10%.

This selloff is going to hurt, delivering its full force directly against the 9th floor, shaking the very walls.

But I find that I am willing to wait it out. The concerns that are driving this selloff are immaterial.

Spanish insolvency, fiscal cliffs, Chinese communists and Ben’s retirement – the four horsemen are dotting the sky and Twitter is like a dumping ground for snarky comments.

Earnings and growth are slowing and Bob Pisani is nowhere to be found.

The funny thing is I was sitting around in exactly the position of the bears this time last year, guffawing in between comments of doom and chugging from a golden chalice.

Let me tell you how this ends for the shorts.

First, they get run over by a stampeding flock of turkey’s. Seasonality adjustments and earnings projections tick up with bad modeling methods. A bottom in housing prices is called for the spring. Employment looks extra rosy with the holiday shopping.

Then Santa comes and mows the surviving shorts down with his sleigh.

This is how the holiday season works.

Let’s review the “impending demise” of civilization. Spanish insolvency can be flooded with EU money. The EU collapse comes from price inflation and manufacturing contraction, not outright defaults. Chinese communists are scary but China can’t exactly afford to have foreign investment flee the country at this precise moment. The fiscal cliff can be voted away.

And after his presidential inauguration, Mitt Romney is going to be ushered into a back room where central bankers will begin the process of extorting him. But even if they fail, Ben has plenty of time to sink so much money into dark pools there’s no chance of reversing his policies.

Why do we need to embrace the end of humanity right now? It’s the holidays. Can’t it wait until next June?

So Dramatic

As the market is off a whopping fraction of a percent, commentators are literally soiling themselves on live television, trying to time the next selloff.

Oil reversed yesterday – to a flurry of publications informing us that the move higher is over with.

Bond analysts are flipping out about Europe.

Romney made some comment most everyone I hang out with agrees with – half of all American’s are lazy tits with zero self-worth – and now a few ancient and withered CNN “journalists” are creaming their pants insisting Obama now somehow has this election in the bag.

And China is thinking of crushing Japan because of some island that might have oil rights.

Folks, this is obviously a drama day. I’m checking my brain out.

Do you understand insignificant this selloff is?

Do you get how high all commodities ramped over the last three weeks as the QE announcement was obviously leaked?

Do you see that European bond yields are still lower than they’ve been all year?

Do you understand that CNN journalists all dorm together in a crawl space and haven’t made a correct prediction in the last 15 years? That the polls coming out have fluctuated consistently by 3% or more, leaving Obama and Romney (the guy supposedly nobody likes) in a virtual tie?

Do you get that Japan has nukes too?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. I’m closing the 9th floor for business early today. My things are packed. I’m closing the door behind me – the lights are flipped off as my hand slides quickly out before the latch locks tight.

Today is just too stupid to get involved with. I’ll see you tomorrow.

How, Jimmy?

I just finished perusing over Jim Roger’s most recent comments on the Eurozone; and I find I generally agree with everything he has to say.

Europe is playing a fast game of bluffing when everyone already knows what they have. It’s destined to fail. Only a combination of zealots trying to save their little project, high frequency speculators, and the totally uninformed will be caught exposed to Europe’s bonds.

So why, then, is Jim Roger’s bullish on China???

It’s like he has no idea where China’s economy comes from. I’ll give you as many guesses as you’d like.

When half of China’s GDP comes from ponying shit to Europe and the US, how can you forecast an EU implosion and then make the jump to “oh well, that nation that doesn’t know how to do anything but sell cheap labor to bigger nations will be just dandy.”

It’s like trying to argue that a pilot every pilot on a plane can have a suffer heart attacks midflight but then predict zero casualties amongst the passengers.

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