We are soon to enter the next phase of the oil price collapse, which will take the form of industry wide mergers and acquisitions, stitching together failed businesses where the cash rich emerge on top.
Although I have been perhaps loyal to a fault with this industry, I have also warned of being on the wrong receiving end of just this very development from the start. Following BAS’ latest earnings report, management talked about this looming reality at some length.
The entire industry is failing and some are on the cusp of insolvency. Although the Saudi’s are failing in their alleged goal of destroying the US space, there will be no dawn for many of these highly leveraged and small players. BAS and others are preparing to pick through the carnage and buy out their assets for pennies on the dollar.
Those who have not maintained their asset rollover plans will be discarded via hard default; no savior come for them.
Prepare yourselves…
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The next question is who can
survive .Are we talking Suncor or Bas.
Look no further than KKR’s investment in Samson Resources, when it was reported this past Friday that they’re planning to declare bankruptcy by mid September
does BBEP survive?
No but they may last a lot longer than anyone expects. The cash flows are holding up better than I would have expected. Long term though, derivatives and debt sink that company.
I just bought some OAS and EPE. Strong assets with a weak balance sheet, might be suitable for a take over at these prices.