What A Weird Year

The wind rushes through the curtains, which cloak my 9th Floor office from direct light outside. The summer air is fresh and warm.

So here’s my review of the week; it was strange and fit perfectly in line with the year we’ve been having.

A Bloomberg article speculating on the looming bankruptcy of Saudi Arabia touched off a fierce rally in oil names, while oil itself continued to have the icy hand of death caressing its forehead.

I’m not exactly sure why you would speculate that a country which has no national debt to speak of would be at risk of going bankrupt any time soon. Certainly, the perseverance of US oil drilling is a thorn in the side of the Saudi’s. But those of us here in the 9th Floor had already worked out that might be the case.

The Saudi target was either their other OPEC members or else they just wanted to hang up future well development. In either case, that mission seems accomplished, and what we are seeing – finally – in media is some resistance to the idea that oil prices should go any lower.

Sure we’re all manic depressive now, but these are good signs. Oil will be back to $80 just as soon as we figure out where to put it.

I know I’ve had been in a black mood all year; but not all is going wrong with Cain Hammond Thaler, have no fear of that.

OMAB continues to experience traffic growth of about 16% per year. It’s come down a little from earlier but that is still strong and the stock should continue to outperform.

TIS was a newer position which took a bit of a 30% spill when I bought it – oops – but I liked to the name so I held on. We’re back above $26, reaching for break even and the company just announced sales increased by 45%. Income per share is up 37.5% year over year and unless I’m misreading something, that is coming straight from product sales – no financial gimmicks to speak of. I need to dig in to the numbers a little deeper to be absolutely sure of that, but for the moment I’m pretty pleased.

TIS is one of those names no one has heard of with a really boring business that is going to make me a lot of money. They make toiletry paper products, something South America is going to be in high demand for as their banana republics keep folding.

And ALDW is playing the part of the faithful hedge, now up 32% since I bought it elevated by lower oil prices and stable gas prices at the pumps.

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