The title of this post more or less speaks for itself. We had a 7 million barrel inventory build, yet two positions most susceptible to that sort of thing recovered and wound higher anyway.
I fully understand the possible danger here, holding these oil names still even after the “joy” I experienced in the second half of last year. But in my estimation, there comes a point when men separate themselves from boys, and needless worrying is shown to be just that.
Humanity endures. And capitalism is to date the closest thing to humanity. You can pretend like the world is just going to sit tight and let calamity knowingly take hold. Or you can believe man will take the steps necessary to prevent such a thing.
In the early years after the depths of the Great Recession, I made some bets against humanity. I bet that oil would trade to $60 (it’s amusing seeing it happen now with me on the opposite side of the fence) and that there would be massive growth shocks. I lost then just as you’ll lose now.
Man endures. Job growth is coming back and early signs of life in wage growth are also creeping up. There are, as there have ever been, many many things that a man could concern himself with. Disease and pestilence, war and famine, corruption and malfeasance, natural disasters, savagery and every other possible thing in between.
But man endures still.
The most pressing problem for the US at the moment is the strength of the US dollar. This is why there is a $10 spread between WTI and Brent, and why US manufacturing is having some problems…because a strong dollar opens them to strong competition. Our manufacturing base has had an easy time of it lately.
But these are problems to be overcome and nothing more. Our trifles are the great boon of another. The oil will find its home. I am tired of these drab years and would very much welcome a return to the soaring spirits of the 90’s. Others are looking for a chance for optimism too. At the end of the day, many of our problems are just numbers on a page. And numbers on a page are hardly immutable.
No we shall overcome our problems.
And man will continue to endure.
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Men will endure, but companies —— not always.
You have your balls exposed .Put them back in your pants
Sentiment in oil stocks is extremely bullish but earnings are going to be horrible. Oil is still in the $50-60 range and none of the drillers are making any money.
Unless oil recovers quickly, frackers have a bigger problem as many carry large debt loads and extraction costs/well decline is much higher. They can play the game only so long but with no FCF they’ll either have to take the Blackstone bag of money or go bankrupt.