Yes I am down a demeaning 3%+ today, thank you for asking.
(Whispers sadistically)…WHO SAID THAT!?
(Eyes nervously twitching in all directions)
(Nervously laughs)…why, what else would I be on Tim Cook day?
What else would I be…?
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Alright, upon externalizing my inner crazy, I feel better now. Today’s drawdown in everything I own, more or less, is most likely the mark of death touching the “SUPER SMART MONEY FUND MANAGERS”, liquidating them.
This action will most likely persist for several weeks more, with small and sharp bounces being met by fervent selling, as the “MOST INTELLIGENT PEOPLE YOU’VE EVER MET” continue to scale out of their late entry, money losing trades.
The 2014 blast off in names like HCLP was being driven in large sum by over allocation on the part of these hedge fund savants, blessings to humanity that they are. That is increasingly clear now. They conveniently showed up way after good entry could be had, provided those of us who actually have original ideas excellent opportunity to step out the door, hyped the crap out of these positions to people with 5 minute attention spans via cable networking, and are now immolating in a pyre.
Accordingly, the “ULTIMATE EXAMPLES OF HUMAN BEINGS ON EARTH” turned lit pieces of coal must be allowed to burn down before we can have some resolution to this little debacle. It is a most excellent buying opportunity to grab some great oil and gas companies…provided you still have both your arms.
As an extra thought, there is a lesson in all of this.
The hedge fund model is dead for the foreseeable future. Which is idiotic. The hedge fund model, on the face of it, makes complete sense. Hedge funds are supposed to be smaller, more versatile structures filled to the brim with excess money that comes from calmer and more financially secure sources. Fundamentally, the hedge fund world should persistently have an edge, free from jittery clients and hamstrung investment options.
In the beginning, that’s the way things were. Cue the copycats and mimics.
I have a long held theory, a secret point of view draped in conjecture: that the plights of the world can in many cases be seen best through the lens of the disappointing children of greater men and women. Mediocrity born behind the wheel; usually reserved for those who’ve demonstrated aptitude for actually handling it.
Everybody loves their children. Everybody wants to help their children succeed. And the result is the bastard sons of senators and business tycoons getting their start up funds seeded with doomed money; setting out into the world to be driven off a cliff or into a brick wall.
This is, in my imagination, the body of invisible and unseen forces currently bleeding all over my positions.
So the hedge fund mythos is dead. Heracles’ killed the Nemean Lion, but he couldn’t survive 6,000 posers dressing up like him and smashing his reputation to shit. Nice work, everyone. The whole concept will have to lie dead for a while, until this period gets smoothed over.
In the meantime, if you’re looking to trust a lucky sperm cell, have a close friend work off onto a four leaf clover – you’ll lose less money walking behind that.
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When crude dropped 25% in 3 weeks, the drop made sense but now these things are whipping around 8% on 1% crude moves.
I can’t imagine all these funds have waited until now to sell. I’m more inclined to believe swing traders have gotten a hold of them now – its their new play things.
At this point, mate, I’m just mildly unhinged, flinging mud in every direction hoping it hits somebody.
The initial move in crude makes sense. I actually penned a piece earlier this year describing how the US oil boom would destabilize the traditional oil regimes (albeit I had no idea it would happen this fast).
But the 50% drops in every fracking/oil minor name is nonsensical. That’s what has me hurdled in the corner, talking to myself, so to speak.
I think this $NADL is really shaping up. Buying more stock down here. Did you see the NY Times piece on Russian arctic drilling, NADL was mentioned.
I did not. You should post it.