A Difficult Decision – Back To 20% Cash

Here I find myself, anxiously pacing up and down the width of the 9th floor in ferocious concentration on the ground just in front of my stepping feet.

What to do?

I have made almost 7% in one day, putting me back in the black for the year. My timing could hardly have been any better.

In August, animosity led me to sell down my longs to a 45% cash position, at the highs of the market. The oil names that were so mercilessly cut down; I had escaped them in sublime manner. Not that I was spared. I watched in shock as a 20%+ year devolved into a small loss. Rather, what marked this as exceptional was the losses I avoided.

I began to buy back what I had sold, and more…

I soon found myself holding a 115% long position on margin. I will not try and hide from you that I was beginning to get most nervous this morning, when the clamor was loudest and the fear the most potent.

So what do I do now? I can hardly exclaim victory – I’m 20% shy even from an acceptable sigh of relief.

Today was a big move. But I remain worried. The EURUSD is stuck at 1.28. Europe is the hidden driver of this selloff; not ebola or white noise in Fed data.

We could continue much higher. Or, I could be savagely knifed and lose my year entirely.

I think that settles it. I am raising cash back to 20% by taking profits on the names I bought at the lows, and completely selling off BTU for tax loss write offs.

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