The market is running and I have made much profit. My gains this year stand respectably north of 15% with the summer closing behind us.
HCLP is back to announcing omnipotent re-pricing and supply extensions. Natural gas continues to see robust expansion to the glory of BAS and ETP. CCJ defies the uranium market. AEC and MAA are riding a multifamily wave that almost no housing analysts foresaw. And the coal market is stealthily shoring up BUT and NRP, with fundamentals that will catch the mainstream opinion off guard. Even the silver market has held onto some pittance of gains this year.
To be sure, the past 18 months have been a glorious time to be alive.
But that will all end soon enough.
It is not just any specific prophesy of doom I’m latching onto here. For the most part, we’ve seen the ability of markets to price out specific events. But I have gone back through every stock market crash since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, and what I have seen (albeit with what little data is available) is a left skewed distribution of such frequency that makes me think the chances of our current state of affairs casually drifting past the 7 year mark without recidivism are…poor.
So I will raise cash going into Fall (as I have several times in the past). And knowing that if I am wrong, there will be plenty of time to make yet more money.
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Might get a good chance to add back in hclp with the secondary.
I am not a gloom and doomer as well despite being called that. You are right. It is basic math and mean reversion. We are way overdue. Unless it is different this time.