iBankCoin
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Oil Fear Trade Will Be Wrong Again

Once again, for every-single-year in a row since 2007 (here’s a fun link courtesy the BBC), we find ourselves circle jerking over the impoverished bastards of the middle east. War! War is coming! And we are doomed.

Give it a rest already. I don’t care that we’re about to level Syria. It isn’t going to do anything to oil supplies. There’s a reason we’re positioning our military assets right on top of these misers.

Any culture or group of peoples that attempts to interrupt global oil supplies will be subjected to “extinction” levels of violence. Not that they would want to anyway, because both sides of Syria desperately needs the oil sales to finance their victory.

Oil supplies are coming out of our ears, so you’re jacking a $30 premium on the price because Syria is a ball of intolerance? Come on…

This is getting ridiculous. We’re 7 years out now, from the first time we were just months out from a global war. But it’s not coming, because no one in the developed world is actually willing to put their lives on the line for some people slogging it out in that 13th century lifestyle.

Despite oil demand being at multi-decade lows, recession literally everywhere, and the most massive energy revolution taking place in America since the 20’s, we have “blessings” of $100 oil, all because markets, in their infinite wisdom, have been shaking in fear of the same “imminent threat” for what is rapidly appraoching a decade.

Maybe it’s time we had a very real discussion about cutting back off the broader markets from being able to place bets in oil. It was better when there were only a few major players. This is just getting stupid. These moves are going to double dip us, for no reason.

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11 comments

  1. River Phoenix

    Thaler, the voice of reason.

    Great for the media biz and, of course, Tesla (if oil is going up to $150/bbl everyone will need a $90k electric, right?).

    Wake me up when when there’s a mushroom cloud over Dimona.

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  2. Jules

    Short it.

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  3. From Gorby

    There is always a tipping point.They can’t afford to turn off the taps so when
    the cannisters are full watch.If I manage
    to time that well someone is gonna
    be happy

    cheers
    time that

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  4. Cryptic Code Breaker
    Cryptic Code Breaker

    Refiners that pay divs. I do own them…I am adding..and I will buy moar in the next 24 hours. (Full Disclosure)

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  5. jskogs

    Ya, pretty strong short signal on oil futures today. I entered a short position just now

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  6. tonka

    The packaging and selling of commodities as an asset class was one of wall street’s greatest scams. The vast majority of people should have zero use for non productive assets in their portfolio. But here we are with 100 oil and people still obsessed with “alternatives” regardless of their negative long term real returns.

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  7. HookersNBlow

    I like this post but as long as syrian fluff hits the wire, evil speculators will drive up prices no?

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  8. fake amish

    Interesting idea. How would that same thinking affect all other assets? If what is good for the masses is the logic then everything should be manipulated, no?

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Yeah I spoke hastily. At least we get an annual washout that let’s real business buy in at better prices.

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  9. fake amish

    Mr. Cain, the euro may finally find the woodshed. Followed a while back into EUO as a hedge. Been range bound but some nasty action overnight.

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  10. gatorsun

    my play SCO. been adding all the way up…been painful, but waiting for sub 100 crude

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