Seeing solar leading the rally like this always causes the hairs on my neck to stand on end. But, I can’t in good faith just offhandedly dismiss the move. What if there’s a good reason behind it?
This is a ritual I practice about every two years. Solar makes a big push, enthusiasts assure me, up and down (crossing fingers, then crossing their hearts) that solar has crossed “the point”, and that this is the future.
I look online, inundated with crappy, low quality journals and studies set up by people with high school math under their belt (maybe a year of college).
I get disgusted and fed up. I badger some friends who are actual engineers.
And they tell me what I shouldn’t have had to been bothered with:
No it isn’t that feasible.
Currently, if you’re going to slap a $30,000-40,000 panel on your roof, you’ll “enjoy” paying about $0.01 more per kilowatt hour than you could get from direct purchase of power from an energy company. I’d say that is understating things, because when I buy power, I typically don’t pay for 15 years up front.
The numbers get better depending on location. But I’d say those numbers are always overly optimistic. Are you going to slap a $30,000 unit on top of your house in Florida, in the middle of the Hurricane belt, without insuring it? That seems stupid.
The subsidies have the potential to allow the retail buyer to get ahead. However, with state finances being what they are, how long before state representatives, slammed with deficits, start balking? I wouldn’t count on the federal government to support solar for too long either, given their current…er, divisional situation.
So as far as I’m concerned, the strength in solar is a black flag, to be treated as a omen.
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I know.I almost pulled the trigger
on $FSLR, then changed my
mind and puchased
$AA and $AT instead.
Cheers
Cain T , you up on those TSLA puts?
No, the celebration is premature, although the general declaration that Tesla was overpriced is being vindicated.
Interestingly, the Jan 2015 30 puts are breakeven, whereas I am down in the Jan 2015 45. The curve is in disarray.
I am down large in the Jan 2014 35 (about half).
However, these are all OTM – a move below $100 would easily establish profits in some amount; a move to $80 could easily double or triple what I paid for them.
I just need to get out well before expiration, by months.
Let’s be honest though, I’m not looking to trade a position that is 2-3% of my book. If we get a real collapse, with two or three more days like today, I’ll make profits.
Otherwise, they can expire worthless for all I care. Time sensitive, but not meaningful…
I’d be surprised if it didn’t get below a hundo in a hurry
I’m rooting for ya
Well thank you Juice, I appreciate that
hey TC, tell Option Addict he’s a pu$$y
No
you totally called this the other way, i was wrong! i am still inclined to believe that TSLA is worth something in the long term!
Of course it’s worth something, they just raised a billion dollars.
The company isn’t going anywhere. The problem is, “what is ‘something’?”
well said, youve earned my respect and then some.
You were ahead of the curve on TSLA. Hope it goes your way, friendo.
Regarding solar in general from one in the heating trades business……….me……
As things stand right now there is no, repeat, no payback for anyone purchasing either solar electric or solar thermal systems. Ever.
The only way solar finds its “place in the sun” is if rates for power produced by less esoteric means doubles in price. Or, the cost of solar systems decreases to 25% of what they are today.
Aside from the ghastly installed price/KW or BTU generated for these systems, many folks who buy them ignore the maintenance required as well as decreased performance of the system as time goes by.
Same goes for “pump and dump” ground source heat pump systems that need a constant supply of well water which is used once and dumped.
Totally not green at all.
Quality post!
in the go figure dept – target being raised to $200 from $90 at Dougherty & co.,also said – ultimately believe that TSLA is a $300 stock at the factory’s max.
If I bulldoze my house and put a factory up, I could theoretically also product 500,000 vehicles a year.
May I have a $15B market cap, please?