Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Biding My Time

Waiting for an oil market correction is a lot like watching toddlers playing with toys from the next age category up. The pieces are all there, and they’re having the time of their lives, but they sure as hell have no clue where anything goes.

Italian numbers were just abhorrent this morning. And the long assumed 8% growth rate of China has been humiliated. European recovery and Chinese domination were all cornerstones of the global growth theory. They have since been shattered, but like Wile E. Coyote, the market hasn’t quite worked out that things have changed.

The oil inventory number that got everyone excited last week can be explained away as a one off. Moving inventories around and offloading them to storage facilities. But there’s no doubt that oil demand continues to fall. ISM numbers, manufacturing, foreign economic GDP…it’s all telling the same story. There have been only a handoff of positive reads, and they’re being put on a pedestal, when they should be put under scrutiny.

I’ve seen this plenty of times before now. Oil prices stay elevated, ignoring the bad news, assuming that sooner or later something good will come along to set it all straight again. And the market ignored the news for months.

Then it implodes.

The losses never last long; just a few months. But the moves are fast and gargantuan.

So sit back and enjoy the game for a while. Play it if you want. I’m content to spend nine tenths of the time waiting for that one special moment when all the real money gets made. It’s coming – like gravity.

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  1. fake amish

    In total agreement. Other than the usual end of the world fuckery what is keeping the pig grease up? Foodstamps do not cover it, section 8 does not cover it, but gov pensions do. No fucking way decrepids filling the rv as they slowly waste away, seeing national parks is enough.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler
      Mr. Cain Thaler

      I have no idea.

      The rumor mill is churning out talk of some refinery bottleneck. But the rumor mill has proven time and again that it was born retarded.

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