Trapping In The Suckers

Grey crowds swirl past the window pushing shadows on my grim expression before the glass of the 9th floor. Hands are crossed formally behind my back in a posture bordering on uncomfortable dignity. The translucent opacity of my reflection stares down the viewer in between glimmers of light.

And all the while, the signs keep coming.

The gains in EU bond yields are ripping to pieces. They have a ways to go yet, but the voracity of the turnaround is violent.

The euro remains weak, today’s gains notwithstanding. Try and pretend all you want that the euro wasn’t above 1.32 not even four months ago. It has degenerated at a remarkable pace. The closest thing to good news out of Europe in the last month has been that the continent receded at a pace slightly slower than expected.

Some reporter tried to pass that off as “growth” today.

I put no stock into measurements of “confidence”, nor do I ever trust manufactured economic “indicators” utterly subjugated by impertinent political meddling. Men are rash beings which largely live in the moment. They don’t “think” ahead – they “feel” ahead with bad judgment placed on what, in hindsight, are largely irregular emotions. Pretending like their “confidence” is good for much of anything is to make decisions derived from false pretenses. Only the presence of a lack of confidence carries any tactical value and weight in business or economics.

What concerns me is the caliber of those buying into the market; those that are most hard set that the market will continue to trade up, come hell or high water. These are the same people who were claiming the market was doomed – there was no path for redemption available nor would any force of heaven or earth conspire to change its fate – last September when the market head faked lower after the initial QE3/4 announcement.

For four years now, getting caught abandoned in the company of these petulant vanities has been a death sentence.

The industrial and commodity signals show broad weakness heading into the warm months; the exact format of every second and third quarter of the years since 2009. Just have a look at copper, and then dare to herald the excitement of 40 year old industry outsiders for stocks as being of any consequence to me.

As enthusiastic as these small player amateurs are now, so will their regret be double when they’ve been scattered for the umpteenth year in a row.

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