Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Shorting Oil Again

I added a position in SCO for $40.19.

This takes my artificial cash position north of 50%. We are at the “edge of disappointment”, where things are neither good nor bad, but merely “meh”.

“Meh” gets you killed.

Europe will flare up again. Cyprus doesn’t matter particularly. The underlying reason we keep hearing about the EU is because the EU is fundamentally fucked on a spindle. The cost of holding the euro together, not just in terms of money, but in terms of man hours, resources, lost opportunities, bitter resentment, livelihood,…is just immense.

It’s never just about the money. When the economics and numbers don’t work, it should usually be a warning sign that you’re screwing something up largely. Money is a metric for measurement; hence why when obnoxious social justiciers whine about people only caring about the money – refusing to just go along with their latest “great idea” – I have a resounding urge to punch them in the throat.

I really don’t understand why European citizens are subjecting themselves to this. It’s not like they’re avoiding the losses…the pain is coming either way, so it’s a choice of accepting that, making changes to improve their underlying format, and moving on, or…not accepting that, getting the beat down anyway and setting themselves up for more failure later.

Anyways…Italian/Spanish/French debt is docile now, but it’s just a matter of time before the next explosion. Europe continues to miss deficit reduction targets by a quarter mile, and they’re all in recessions.

Dangers to the SCO position would include if the ECB and Fed were ever permitted to team up like Batman and Robin; doesn’t seem in the cards at the moment (or ever), but it’s worth stipulating that I really believe Bernanke & Co would view $150 oil as a “successful policy outcome.”

For the meantime, however, I’ve got decreasing industrial production overseas, an oil production bonanza here at home, and a hundred-years demographic movement towards smaller commutes all playing to my hand.

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