It’s frightening how easy “investing” has become over the last five months. The yesterdays of 2012 are now far behind us, and mistakes and losses are an alien concept again. Much like early 2012 brought relief from the horrors of 2011. And 2011 in turn brought salvation from 2010. Etcetera.
The only thing more frightening than how easy playing this tape is would then be how many of you think you’re any good at this. IBankCoin traffic stats tell that story all too clearly. You’re an ace, batting 80%+ trades and you make Bill Miller look like a homeless person. You don’t need anyone anymore.
This dual function of mine makes this very frustrating. Nothing is more annoying than penning a detailed piece of a company’s management or laying out the market climate to the applause of perfect plumbing and no one reading the work. In that sense, I guess my call late last year for the most awesome rally ever was something of a nail in my own coffin (*cough* remind me how many of you bulls there were then…?). Irony can be a cruel mistress.
Whatever. You’ll come crawling back in no time.
First sign of trouble, maybe the second, and suddenly you’ll remember that you’re not so much an elite trader as a guy dabbling in a margin account (probably funded with advances from several credit cards) whose been so lucky to be on the right side of the trading over the last few months.
How many of you are locking in gains and thinking about cash? When was the last time you even bothered looking at what it is you actually own? What are the pathways to success or failure for your book?
By this time in September, site traffic will be back. Most of you are high on life right now, having chosen the most favorable conditions to try your hand at sailing. Nice clear skies, calm and steady wind and you’re on a path that never requires tacking.
But I’m watching those conditions turn. The wind is getting a little more erratic. The rain is coming out. It’s getting dark. We’re pressing into shore. And you’re not a sailor, buddy.
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Thanks for your continued insight Mr. Thaler. This market has been so good to us for so long, I was actually starting to believe I had “skill”. The last time I felt like that was back in mid 2011 when I was knee deep in mining stocks and felt like a “genius”. I will continue to look forward to your future posts as this ship nears landfall…
The small sail area on that boat says it all…
Always read you.
Great piece.
Anyone who claims to be a master at this is either…
1.) too over confident. (simple dog-brain.)
2.) full of shit and lying.
Everyone has their bad calls.
I certainly have.
Thanks, Mr C Thaler.
All your work here is very much appreciated. Sorry I don’t say so more often.
nice post^
I don’t miss a post. You and Fly are must reads and I get to the others when I ca.
I need all the advice I can get and the entertainment value is high!
Ooooh…wait a second!!
CNBC says short
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000153491
(wonder what took them so long?)
cc Rhino’s
Patience is a Large Position
Thank you very much.