Monday, December 5, 2016
Stock advice in actual English.
Joined Sep 2, 2009
1,224 Blog Posts

Bought Back RGR

Okay, I played it like a rookie, trading the open, but it won’t matter.

RGR is going back above $60, and will be making new highs in short order.

If it dips, I’d be willing to buy more, but only by offsetting elsewhere.

I’m running hot right now with no cash. And we are going higher.

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  1. djmarcus

    as always, good luck. up 4% vs my swhc up 1%. ugh.

  2. the raconteur

    Did you happen to find the model I sent you useful at all?

    I think RGR is certainly worth at least $65 at this juncture.

    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      Oh yes, sorry. It was a pretty well thought out spreadsheet. I forgot to get back with you.

      If I were to offer any constructive criticism, it would be to include a range for your assumptions, rather than estimators.

      Then your final output would be a price range: RGR given range of assumptions A1 – A2, B1 – B2, etc is worth approximately R1 – R2.

      That lets us see variability and exposes us to the liklihood that our numbers are all crap. It also shows how much “give” the stock has and how dependent it is on assumptions.

      Just 2 cents.

  3. the raconteur

    Touché, well said and I couldn’t agree more. I built it fairly quickly during some downtime at work but unfortunately had to settle for less than perfect when my work flow picked back up.

    Hopefully i can spend some time on it over the long weekend and build out a range of operating assumptions. Ill shoot you an updated version if I end up modifying it.

  4. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    Only the timid could not see that RGR, SWHC et al would make out like a bandit. As if 0bama can strike down the 2nd amendment. He wants to take the house and he can’t do it by pissing off southern / rust belt / eastern democrat NRA members.
    So as it stands the firearms factories have sold out their inventory (which stagnated for up to 5 months) at sporting goods stores. Right now they can’t keep up with the demand, I see six month back orders, that’s quite a bit considering they produce 200 AR’s each day.