It’s so fortunate that the markets are back open finally. Some of us were starting to lose our minds.
I’m getting lit up in BAS. The entire position is being crushed. My losses stand at about 22% from my first purchase. Net losses are lower from averaging in.
That’s what happens when you push into distressed positions. Most of the time, you’re early, and get treated to another 20-30% of downside. You have to know you’re where you’re supposed to be, because if you’re wrong, there’s no coming back.
But the rewards can be tantalizing when you’re right. I laid out my reasoning for a huge resurgence in BAS’ stock price mid to late next year at the earliest. Sooner if speculative money gets interested in natural gas prices reflating.
I offer a hat tip to Po Pimp, who told me I was early to the trade. This one’s to you, sir.
Meanwhile, not all is bad. CCJ is running much higher, in a way that makes me think somebody talked. They’re supposed to be issuing earnings today.
AEC is flat and CLP is getting a nice bid from some positive spin off their earnings release last week. The irony that CLP is more expensive than AEC, while CLP continues to receive more hype, is not lost on me.
And silver is back above $32.
But I have no cash, in large part because I’m betting that the world can be just as irrational this year as it was last year. Or the year before that. There is no buffer between me and a drawdown, and only limited ability to buy in if we get a big selloff.
Hearing market commentators launch into explanations of the dangers coming out of Europe, or developing economies; my exact position this time last year before the huge run; is aggravating.
If this is the year that facts matter, so help me, I will be pissed.