I just finished perusing over Jim Roger’s most recent comments on the Eurozone; and I find I generally agree with everything he has to say.
Europe is playing a fast game of bluffing when everyone already knows what they have. It’s destined to fail. Only a combination of zealots trying to save their little project, high frequency speculators, and the totally uninformed will be caught exposed to Europe’s bonds.
So why, then, is Jim Roger’s bullish on China???
It’s like he has no idea where China’s economy comes from. I’ll give you as many guesses as you’d like.
When half of China’s GDP comes from ponying shit to Europe and the US, how can you forecast an EU implosion and then make the jump to “oh well, that nation that doesn’t know how to do anything but sell cheap labor to bigger nations will be just dandy.”
It’s like trying to argue that
a pilot every pilot on a plane can have a suffer heart attacks midflight but then predict zero casualties amongst the passengers.
14 Responses to How, Jimmy?
I think Jimmy, like all of us, suffers from cognitive dissonance.
He has bet his and his kids lives on the fact that Singapore is the place to be in the 21st century, despite the potential powder keg of a semi-fascist China looking over its shoulder.
I wonder if there were a lot of people placing the same bets on Singapore (and the Phillipines and Burma, and on and on etc. etc.) in the 1920′s and 30′s?
“It’s like trying to argue that a pilot can have a heart attack midflight but then predict zero casualties amongst the passengers.”
Remember, there is a co-pilot.
As soon as I wrote that, I absolutely knew someone would take issue…
There, are we content now?
Jim once said selling China stock would be like selling stock in 1907. But the US stock market really didn’t explode above the 1907 price until 1924. Basically he doesn’t care if he’s dead by the time China takes off, or thinks he will live forever. China may get it’s GDP from production and selling, but if Europe collapses and demand is destroyed capital will still migrate elsewhere and eventually demand will come from the lowest cost producer. and if the rest of the world is in crisis and oil is cheap it benefits China since they use petroleum to produce and eventually China will benefit… It could be decades though!
I don’t think he is betting on zero casualties, just that the airline business won’t collapse, even if it has several plane tragedies as a result of the majority of pilots simultaneously dying. Eventually there will be new pilots even if it takes years and the shortage of pilots may lead to increased prices for pilots and reduced prices, the demand for flying will still eventually exist provided profits are still “allowed”.
If shit hits the fan, China will nationalize all foreign stock holders before letting them have more claims to China than Chinese nationals.
Exactly! I find it very difficult to believe how many people seem to place China investments and business practices on a par with the Western countries. The do not use the same rule book and have only their national interests at heart. If they feel it serves them well to take your capital, your business, your factory, they will do so with no compunction at all.
China = good place to gamble short term. Long term?…….well truthfully I don’t think there’s anything good long term right now.
Like it or or no, Euro won’t go.
Odds favor an Amero creation to a EUR deletion.
Just another 1.27 to go until that’s an easy join then
I think more importantly here is the rate at which technology can equalize countries is the biggest game changer. Technology + cheap labour is a winning strategy. As education goes online it is going to level the playing field even more. Like most I agree that China isn’t going to dominate in the next 5 year s.. give it 25..30..45 for any country with a growing technological infrastructure, solid transportation infrastructure, contracts for natural resources and a heaps of cheap labour how can the west survive?
You might bring up the fact that US is more creative.. Keep in mind, with time to think people spend more time on entertainment and creative ventures.
Pardon my poor grammer..
Agree. I never quite understood how he could be bullish on China and bearish on US. We are intertwined.
I chalk it up to him working for Chinese government.