I've been doing this a long time.
Joined Oct 7, 2015
102 Blog Posts

Crude Futures: Sell the hurricane. Buy the hurricane. Rinse. Repeat.

I made a lot of money trading crude futures on Thursday. It is something I rarely do and do not recommend it to any sane individual.

A gem for all you energy commodity traders, from an astute long-time trader I greatly respect:
“Besides the 6/21 uptrend channel bottom line that we are on @ or near 49 I am looking at the recent selling activity before the last 3 hurricanes to make US landfall. the heavy selling occurs the day before the storm hits with very strong buying the following days. Harvey US landfall Aug 25, selling on Aug 24 from 48.40 to 47 and a few days after takes it to 45.50 then hard spike up to 49.40.

Sept 8th hard selling from 49.10 to 47.22 a day before Irma Sept 10th then a big spike for new high 50.50.

Sept 18th selling from 50.85 to 49.70 (Maria) Sept 20th then hard spike to 52.80. I think the retrace is done, the production shutdown with refineries in harms way and the increased gas usage for any evacuations is going to spike this to 53.53.”

This is better research than anything you will ever get from a chartist/technical trader. So after buying and selling five contracts like a Contrarian Boss, to great reward on Thursday, today I bought again near the hurricane-hysteria LOD. Five futures contracts with an average cost of 49.32. Stop loss be damned, I am willing to hold it until the hysteria dies on the vine. Hurricane Harvey was an anomaly. This one incoming is Cat 1, at best. In fact, this time it will be offshore production that suffers, not the refineries. That sounds positively bullish.

We’ll see how this plays out by Wednesday. Until then, stay safe and warm, dear friends on the Gulf Coast. I’ll be up on the positively BALMY Connecticut Gold Coast, the wife is away for the weekend and I will be cranking up YouTube through one of the Rokus and annoying my neighbors with very loud music through open windows. No open screens, the fucking Stink Bugs are clamoring to come inside for the winter (another positively horrid accidental import from the hellish insect world of Asia).

Ladies and Gents, wait for the amazing Les Paul of the Master, Martin Barre, setting the tone for my weekend…


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One comment

  1. sarcrilege

    so, basically, …buying/selling on gut feel and some educated guess that you know what the crowd knows.

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