11:46 Entries – Waterfalls and More

I’ve taken a day to read back through a number of my previous posts both here and at the blog.

This kind of “self evaluation” is not only valuable from a bloggers perspective but also specifically as a trader – much like any of you may flip back through your trade notes / journals to evaluate your performance or to see if you’ve “stuck to the plan”.

As far as the blogging goes – I see considerable room for improvement, but as far as the trade stuff goes  – not to shabby ( if indeed you can pick out anything “useful” from the implorable writing).

Looking back I’ve had Japan nailed  – from the epic fall of the Yen to the recent rejection of the Nikkei…..as well I even got my “waterfall” in USD.

Now we place short entry in $SPX a couple of hairs under the current market price.

USD is heading much lower after ” an excuse for a bounce” – and my short $SPX will get hit…maybe not tomorrow….and maybe after a touch higher but who cares about that. We are on the other side of the mountain now.

I’n not an equities trader but since my involvement here at Ibankcoin I’ve taken a much closer look – as I monitor all the same day to day stuff as everyone else.

My forex trading is based in fundamental analysis “coupled” with an extremely accurate and proven short term tech that I have been working on for several years now.

I make trade decisions based in my longer term views, and longer term chart analysis “then” use the laser gun for entries / signals / exits etc on much shorter time frames.

The system “looks forward” based in a number of specific criteria being met at “one point” – and then looks out over an additional time period for yet another set of parameters to be met.

I will consider “short entry” on $SPX at 11:46 a.m Friday morning, and invite all to evaluate / consider if / how / indeed this signal has any merit in the equity space.

Please consider that I’ve been long JPY for nearly 2 full weeks based on similar short term signals.

Through all the years trompin through jungle, one of the most spectacular and rare opportunities I’ve had – has been to chance upon a waterfall.

Not a tourist thing, not a trickle, not some guy charging $9.95 a head to see the pond in his backyard – but a real life, honest to god “sprites/ferry’s/magic/the works/ endless flow of glorious water – spilling over the rocks and disappearing into the depths.

Rare indeed – they can be found in markets too.

I’m searching for one now – only this one’s in dollars.

This has been a complete and total pain in the ass…..as I’ve been working this trade / positioning / adding for literally weeks…and it’s been more or less an uphill battle.

We are here….sort of.

I am all over the place short USD ( as you all know) and began my long JPY trades yesterday morning ( as per tweet )

I expect to be in these trades FOR A LONG TIME.

It’s off to the ruins in Tulum and out swimming with the sea turtles in Akumal – for days!

Ask me about it – USD etc….. I’m thinkin September.

I wanted to point this out as I feel it’s important to get a longer term vision of things.

What better example than the good ol USD. Using “$dxy” you’ll need to pull at least a weekly chart going back as far as 2008…..then draw a simple trend line ( I use crayola crayons not a laser pointer ) connecting the “highs” in 2009 , 2011 – and “now” – as you should arrive at the current area of price around 84.48 completing your line.

If  “indeed” this current area serves as solid overhead resistance, and turns the USD lower ( consistent with the continued trend of “lower highs” ever since the crash of 2008 ) would you not agree – this lines up perfectly with the longer term fundamentals as “policy” would have it that the Fed wants a lower dollar?

Now……consider the opposite “technically” – then apply your fundamental analysis.

USD breaks higher…and actually creates a “change in trend” ( making a new “higher high” ) thus breaking the previous long term series of “lower lows” since the onset of massive QE back in 2009.

Fundamentally speaking – would that make sense?

Seriously…..we need to throw this around, and I want you to comment / contribute here.

With such amazing efforts over the past 5 years by the Fed to “weaken the dollar” – can you really imagine that “now is the time” to “scrap the idea” – and see the dollar change this long standing technical and fundamental trend?

I await your valuable contributions.

Forgive me if I sound like a broken record.

What I find particularily interesting is the continued “blind faith” that things just keep going round n round / up forever – and that those of us with near term bearish views have lost our minds.

Making money is the obvious point, and trading in a single direction has never made an ounce of sense to me – as we call this trading! If had any kind of emotional connection / view / bias in “favor of direction”  of a  bunch of numbers on a screen I’d imagine it quite difficult.

My views on humanity are bearish, with focus on leaving this planet – an imperative.

I imagine that a number of astrophysicists focused on the same,  still manage to get up each morning and enjoy a good cup of coffee, kiss their wives and children good bye, walk out the door with big fat grins on their faces and enjoy their days – despite their knowledge of how screwed up things are.

I’m long interstellar travel……..and STILL short USD.

You know……

If for no other reason other than to “stir this up a tad” and perhaps provide an additional  level of entertainment (even “controversy”….if I could be so lucky) – I’ll throw it out there.

I don’t trade equities for reason we’ve already been over. I see risk….I evaluate risk and I “see what I see” through the movements of money on this planet –  fiat money.

A day here ….a day there – whatever.

The thought of buying anything here is complete and total “gorilla balls”.

If you’ve got em – all power to you.

My girlfriend wasn’t thrilled……oh no not at all – but mine are out as per the attached photo.

My hats off to you if you have been one of the fortunate, and just stuck to your bullish ways – riding this never ending “pump job” to the moon.

As my “short USD” trades hang in the weeds a touch longer – I continue with the mindset that it’s far too late to consider switch hitting and actually buying into this, and that any further short term pain should be exactly that – short term.

Levels I’d sighted over the past few days where blown through like matchsticks Friday, which makes pretty good sense when you consider that this thing will always do it’s best to keep you guessing.

Short term squiggles are meaningless,but getting the longer term view wrong can turn into a real disaster – real quick.

As straight up “boring as hell” as this may appear to you guys – we continue to wait patiently.

To the point.

In light of yesterday’ s ( and last nights ) move in USD – and it’s “inability” to breach significant levels of resistance (coming withing “00.01” and potentially creating some serious new math considerations for Kong) – I plan to “get serious” about allocating funds – short, short , short. Loading my boat with loonies, kiwi’s, and any number of other fancy things while burning “hay bails of dollars” –  at weenie roasts on a number of secluded beaches along the way.

After U.S data release – we’ll see if orders get picked up across the board.

The macro implications of USD climbing any higher ( and I mean – literally…..a pip or two higher ) are considerable.

If you f0llow / track “$dxy” ( normally I don’t – but given the current market conditions…it may provide a “smoother view” of general USD strength/weakness) the index is literally ( at this moment ) pushing at the highs from last year at 84.10

The implications would be a “higher high” – and essentially a break of the consistent downtrend from 2008.

The implications are truly alarming.

Personally ( as I’ve come to understand markets will always look to “stretch” as far in each direction as possible before correcting ) I really don’t see it happening, as the implications of a “strong dollar”  would seriously impede any idea of “recovery” ( if in fact you believe in “the recovery”…..we all know I don’t) so…….at best – we watch the level here today, and put ol Kong to the test.

Obviously I am salivating to get short USD  – yet again.