Aside from my short term tech firing on $SPX ( with short entry any time here today ) I’m now seeing considerable underlaying strength in JPY.
We all know what that suggests.
When the Yen starts taking inflows , and pairs such as AUD/JPY as well NZD/JPY start showing weakness ( as they most certainly are today! ) I get pretty damn excited about some serious action to follow.
JPY pairs are fast n furious, and capable of producing some really big moves, really , really fast.
This already being Thursday – I’m usually not so inclined to enter any “larger postions” going into the weekend, but will be watching JPY strength closely as “once again” my short term tech would project “entry long JPY” for Monday morning, if not sooner.
In combination – I’m alreadylooking short $SPX and now see considerable strength in the “age ol safe haven” of the Japanese Yen so……..
Yen Strength Showing, but don’t tell the bulls.
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Thanks for the post, Kong. I was eyeing up jpy pairs last night and should have made a move. AUD and NZD look pretty oversold – short term and might not make a great entry. What do you think about CADJPY?
And ya I will probably take off my es long tomorrow morning and let my short exposure ride.
Enjoy the day man. Good trading!
When considering Yen strength or the “liklihood of” – I don’t get super tied up with “against what” as the flows are so great, that you can literally get long JPY against everything under the sun. Well….”no” that’s a little crude, but essentially if / when JPY shows strength in this environment you know what it means. It means “risk off”.
Aud and NZD super oversold “in their own right” but when faced with the overwhelming power of a true “risk off” type move – JPY trumps all!
My system/tech will have me look at it on Monday, but I wouldn’t be freaked in the slightest with starter positions any time soon.
Stocks….Bernanke etc……the retail gong show continues, as global positioning is clearly, CLEARLY suggesting things are headed south.
A single stock market in a “world full of stock markets” (especially one so absolutely manipulated as the U.S) is a “product” of currency markets – it’s the tail – not the dog.
Thanks for the insight. How do you trade JPY here. Is there a ETF play of you have to buy a currency pair. I have Interactive brokers so would like to get your thought.
Thanks
Bill
So Kong. Risk off equal strong Yen and Strong dollar and everything else toast? Gold?
I see risk off (these days) being strong Yen, weak USD as well weak U.S equities.
Gold will have it’s day yes —– but it’s not a trade…it’s an investment.
Timing a bottom in gold? I’ll need to see a “weekly swing low” to even think about.
Just to clarify your thoughts. Weak USD against a basket of FX. Pound, Euro, CAD even such dogs as Aussie?
Im just trying to figure what gold may do probability wise on a sell off. Sell off with equities or maybe stay elevated. Hmmmmmm.
This is my thinking yes….and as for AUD – doesn’t make the absolute most sense that as “risk comes off” the one currency that essentially “defines risk” rips the balls off every retail newbie on the planet?
Gold’s day is coming soon.
Thanks Kong.