CYS Pay .92 dividend — Surprise!

 

4:01PM Cypress Sharpridge Investments declares Q4 2012 dividend of $0.40, special dividend of $0.52 per share (CYS) 13.06 +0.10 : These dividends will be paid on December 28, 2012 to common stock stockholders of record on December 21, 2012.

When Benny Bernanke is buying all debt from banks! WE BALL!

Could be a small squeeze tomorrow as there are 14.6M shares short; if they’re still short, then they’ll pay us — stupid mooks. Maybe we’ll reclaim the 200MA.

 

Still holding shares from the 14s before the 3 qtr; so I am in the money from the dividends.

Dont be a piker or a mook

for the past few months i have been learning how to tape read and scalp. Understanding the immediate supply and demand to forecast the immediately price movements. Friday, i started to size up and actually scalp with over 1k shares

 

 

Dont be a piker or a mook and know everything about the markets.

 

Understand fundamentals, technicals and tape reading so you can make money and take it from the pikers and mooks who dont.

if i become one of the distinguished gents as a tabbed blogger, maybe ill post some vidoes on tape reading.

Week-end Recap

We opened lower earlier this morning but ripped north right away when there was “hope.” Consumer sentiment was GREAT! AWWW YEAAAH!

I on the other hand, I thought it was bullshit and ignored the Rally of Hope! Do you know why i ignored this crap? Bc it is a survey of 500 people! Those 500 people doesnt represent the entire country, so fuck these fake numbers. And Fuck the bulls that tried to shake me out of my position, i’m done and i’m tired them trying to rally this market. The market will die like a dog with the fiscal cliff around the corner like a ticking time bomb and Greece going bankrupt.

 

 

MCD marketed in @ 85.29 11/8/12 when i saw a refreshing seller at 85.40 offer; 86.00 was the support level that was supposed to be the short entry, but I was doing something else and missed it but I found another area of entry. McDonalds is a macro company that a lot of people around the world use as an index to gauge how the global economy is doing, foreign exchange differences and inflation. An example would be the Big Mac Index.

Now let’s go through some of the earnings conference call a few weeks ago:

Now, let’s turn to Europe. Third quarter comparable sales were up 1.8% and operating income grew 3% in constant currencies. We’ve been able to grow our market share despite the fact that Europe’s economic environment remains challenging and that the IEO category continues to contract as our steady measures impact consumer confidence and purchasing power. Across the board in Europe, value has become even more important as the economic crisis lingers.

Our markets have implemented a two-pronged approach, increasing their media weight and focusing on value offerings to drive traffic, while also promoting new food news in list average check. The U.K. and Russia specifically continue to deliver strong results posting solid sales for the quarter on top of strong prior year results. In the U.K., they successfully combined various sales initiatives to drive traffic and increased average check.

France’s third quarter comparable sales were positive despite continued pressures, including slowing European tourism and a declining IEO market. And even though guest counts are soft, our initiatives are resonating and we continue to gain share. We strengthen our emphasis on value by featuring Petit Plaisir nationwide. These are smaller sandwiches at the €2 price point, and we also increased advertising levels.

In addition, 600 restaurants now offer Petit free, which like the Eurosaver Menu offers great tasting products at the one to two year old price range. To promote value across the menu, French recently launched the Royale Barbecue, a quarter pound of cheese and a barbecue sauce to sales for €3.90 and delivers higher profit margins.

And while Germany hasn’t been impacted a significantly as the rest of Southern Europe economically, German consumers are some of the most sensitive to global economic news. Their high saving rates, controlled spending habits and focus on price deals all reflect continued weak consumer confidence. In response to the environment and softening sales, we’ve been focused on driving business with great offers that round out their everyday value platform, which we call the SMS menu.

In June, we introduced the McDeal extra value meal for €3.79 to augment our premium product extra value meals. Since then, we’ve experienced all time high sales of all extra value meals. The team is currently evaluating additional ways to expand the McDeal brand and to build on this momentum with more options for our customers.

In addition to combining Europe’s successful premium entries with the greater emphasis on entry price value platforms, we continue to increase the number of restaurants opened for extended hours. And we continue to modernize the brand with an ongoing focus on reimaging. Together, these actions give us confidence; the McDonald’s Europe is well positioned to succeed in a long-term.

**I delete some boring parts but you can read it all at SuckingAlpha.com
**bolded some important stuff

So here’ s my conclusion, they saw this economic slow down, did some preventative measure to protect themselves from losing money, and created more discounted meals, but they couldn’t stop the Euro-problem? So poor people aren’t buying food for €4 ? NOT GOOD.

 

These aren’t good #s and it shows how the Euro problem is really affecting them, but this is just the first month; we shall have to keep an eye on McDonalds and see if they’ve relieved this problem next month, but I seriously doubt it.

This is the fundamental problem, but let’s take a look at the psychological:

Broke the macro ascending support trendline in October after they released earnings on the monthly chart; not good.

broke another important support at 86 in the weekly; not good.

the daily was testing 84s today…

We could use something else as a view of the macro economy. Let’s take a look at the SPY

2 days below the 200ma.. not good.

 

I am still holding my BIDU short even though GOOG was told that they’re blocked in China again. 

GOOG was basically lost the battle to BIDU since 2010 b/c citizens in china could not view specific data; so it was basically the same as BIDU or crappier. Fundamentally, I still think that GOOG doesn’t have much influence in China anymore and that BIDU should just worry about QIHU taking 20% of their market share and potential shitty mobile products..which will suck b/c the mobile market share is being controlled by Samsung and AAPL. The barrier to entry too high.

BIDU is hovering below the 106 and 105 area of resistance and now it’s building a descending resistance trendline. I am looking at 103 as micro support b/c it hovers around it — this isn’t very significant for swing, but day trading, it is somewhat. Then the macro area that a lot of people are thinking about going long is the 100; this is a good area to watch to see if it would bounce or crack down and go lower.

 

Also, take notice of what happened after Obama opened his mouth around 1:15pm when he talked about increasing taxes. Drrrrrroooop!

 

Fib lvls…if we don’t get a bounce, watch these areas as support…135.16 is a crappy micro lvl; we might slice through it.

watchlist for week of 11.6.12

Huge catalyst in FB on Novemeber 13th when 49% or 1.33 billion shares lock up period will be over.

 

I will keep an eye on right now b/c I think technical analysts are looking to buy some right now b/c the 21/50ma are really close and i think they want to try and get a quick bounce from it with a breakout above the 24.25 area. I on the other hand, would probably like to see a short as more shares become outstanding on the 13th.

 

Crude breaking down; watchout below… i would love to short this if it cracks that support level

 

would short any price right here around the 200ma

Could short GLD here and then add more to the short when it cracks the 200ma

 

watch the 34.75 level

cup&handle building up here; watching for a b/o

 

Weekend Trade Recap

UPDATED: fixed some grammatical errors… idk, that shit bothers me.

 

Went Short BIDU when it broke the 106 level that everyone was screaming about and then avged up into the position, but when it kept going higher and today when the jobs # came out, it gapped up even higher. i was watching the tape the entire time to identify a place to sell my position, but i didn’t when i saw the heavy supply come in and BIDU just couldn’t get higher; especially with the two other major tech boys going down faster than any hooker i’ve ever seen. KAPLOW! BIDU gives EVERYTHING back within 20 minutes and I was par. I didn’t cut my losses when i identified the buyer @ .90 trying to hold the stock up and so it went up for a bit but later failed during mid-day and went another point lower due to 162k of accumulation puking. I don’t know who was buying, but someone was and I think they got fucked so bad that they puked .40 immediately and then he tried to buy more at the .50 but he got screwed royally and he tried to accumulate more EOD at the 105 fig.

the buyer accumulated 80k from 9:50 – 10:35am.

Then the second time before it failed, he accumulated about another 80k at 1:20-1:25pm but it didn’t workout so he let it drop to the half and he got another 107k before letting it drop to the 105 and buying another 395k there.

This guy is really trying to work his order in even if the market is going against him but if the market doesn’t go well, this guy is going to have to puke really bad just from buying about 664k today.

 

LOW made 52 highs today and it broke out from .29 (old highs) all the way to .63, but i let it pull back instead of taking immediate profits b/c this is a swing and not a day trade. I still see the cup and handle forming with the catalyst of Sandy making ppl think that this retail is going to perform awesomely from the damages it has done.

 

 

Also i am keeping an eye on the correlation between financials and tech sector; that’s another reason why i held my BIDU short even though i was ~1.5 out of the money.

XLK also pierced through the 200MA without any hesitation; this shows weakness to me in the tech sector.

 

Finally, the SPY gapped up higher today from the good jobs # on hiring, but it hit resistance when it touched the 50MA and 21MA and pierced through the micro support levels that I have drawn. This is not good considering we had a few days of consolidation and when the bulls tried to take control of the market to get away from the consolidation area, it got wrecked trying to go higher. Since the election is around the corner, next week, I think it will chop around the micro levels here until one of the candidates wins.

 

From what I am hearing, if Obama wins, sell equities and if Romney wins, sell bonds.

 

 

 

Front Running 11/1/12

TLT was a buy yesterday, but as I am always late to the race; I also wanted confirmation of a breakout. I will see if I can find a good entry tomorrow and pick up a small position.

 

I like the oversold areas and am looking for a bounce trade.

 

GOLD also an oversold stock that I am looking for a bounce, but there’s another layer of probability, the breakout… wait for it…

 

wait, wait, wait, Sandy Style….trades.

LOW: i love the cup&handle trade here; waiting for it to b/o

 

HD: another good one for a bounce trade here and potential 52 week b/o trade

 

CSX: range play here; this one is a slow one, so it will take some opportunity cost – time.

 

CNH: fuck farming equipment; short at resistance and add more when it goes higher.

 

 

 

Front Run the Fed Prt2

Update: was going to initiate a position, but prob don’t have time today

 

I am considering on taking a very significant position next week in this one stock, WMC, Western Asset Management Capital Corporation due to the open ended quantitative easing #4 that came out the other day — Sept 13. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443890304578006702760267388.html)

The Fed’s goal is not to relieve debt-serfdom, it’s to enforce it. The entire purpose of the Fed’s policies is to ensure homeowners keep paying interest to banks for the rest of the lives, and to encourage those who are not yet debt-serfs to join the serfdom with a “cheap” mortgage.” – Zerohedge
What is WMC?

Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation is focused on investing in, financing and managing primarily residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which are not issued or guaranteed by a United States Government agency or federally chartered corporation, or non-Agency RMBS. The Company also focuses on investing in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and other asset-backed securities (ABS), as well as RMBS for which a United States Government agency or federally chartered corporation guarantees payments of principal and interest on the securities, or Agency RMBS.

 

The Company is managed and advised by Western Asset Management Company. As of June 12, 2009, the Company had not made any investments.

Reasoning:
They came out with a sexy press release on Thursday after hours saying that they are increasing their Q3 dividends significantly from $0.58 to .$0.85. But not only is it just a sexy PR, it shows how much relative strength this company is related to the Quantitative Easy that came out or how strong it is compared to the Federal Reserve’s Open Ended QE.

Thursday 4:43 PM Western Asset Mortgage (WMC) declares an $0.85/share Q3 dividend vs. $0.57 in Q2 (Q2 dividend was actually $0.38, but following its IPO, covered just half the quarter). In light of new Fed policy – “(which) may have a significant impact on the valuation of our portfolio” – the company issues guidance on its book value, believing it to be $22.68 on Sept. 14. “We continue to be pleased with the position of our portfolio.” Shares +9.2% AH.

PASADENA, Calif., Sept. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation (NYSE: WMC) announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.85 per share for the third quarter of 2012. This dividend is payable on October 25, 2012 to common shareholders of record as of October 1, 2012, with an ex-dividend date of September 27, 2012.
The Company also announced that its estimated book value per share, as of September 14, 2012, was $22.68.

“In light of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on September 13, 2012, we believe it to be important to provide intra-quarter guidance on our current estimated book value, as we believe the Fed’s announcement and subsequent actions may have a significant impact on the valuation of our portfolio,” said Gavin James, Chief Executive Officer of Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation.  ”We continue to be pleased with the position of our portfolio, given current market conditions.”

The stock is currently $24.10 with a book value of $22.68

Strong analyst opinions from strong banks:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=WMC+Analyst+Opinion
Morgan Stanley owns a decent amount of shares:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=WMC+Major+Holders

Stock Chart:  http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=wmc

Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wmc&ql=1

Dividend: $0.85

Analyst Target: $24 (passed)

Ex-dividend date is September 27, 2012.

Strategy:
example of 1k shares
  • let’s say it floats around $24, i will purchase 1/4 (250) of my portfolio with this. since ex div is on  (t+3), this will need to be purchased on Monday because it takes 3 days to settle unless you pay cash and settle it the next day to get dividends, but just in case, might as well pick some up on Monday, so you can front run some people going into the ex-dividend date.
  • comes down .85 to 23.15 from $24; will purchase another 2/4 (500) to average my position
  • average price will become 23.4333333 / share but still with a book value of 22.68
  • $0.75333333 above the book value, but with DEFINITE growth due to the backing of the corrupted federal reserve, this should be able to grow significantly
  • if it does to and anywhere near book value, i will buy more to avg down due to the open ended backing of the government
  • also, this is a recently IPOd stock, so it is still under the radar and not a lot of institutional / individual investors really know about it; i think that can give an advantage to us
Shall not only be keeping an eye on the relative strength the REIT sector, but more specifically on RMBS & CMBS index, REM.
REM:  http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=REM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of the residential and commercial mortgage real estate sector of the United States equity market.

 

The Fund will concentrate its investments in a particular industry or group of industries to approximately the same extent as the Index is so concentrated. The Fund’s investment advisor is Barclays Global Fund Advisors.

Disclosure, holding a very significant amount of CYS

CYS Investments, Inc. is a specialty finance company created with the objective of achieving consistent risk-adjusted investment income. The Company invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) collateralized by fixed rate single-family residential mortgage loans (typically 15, 20 or 30 years), adjustable-rate mortgage loans (ARMs), which typically have coupon rates that reset monthly, or hybrid ARMs, which typically have a coupon rate that is fixed for an initial period (typically three, five, seven or 10 years) and thereafter resets at regular intervals. In addition, its investment guidelines permit investments in collateralized mortgage obligations issued by a government agency or government-sponsored entity that are collateralized by Agency RMBS (CMOs), although the Company had not invested in any CMOs as of December 31, 2011.

 

The Company finances its Agency RMBS investments using a diversified approach involving repurchase agreements with multiple commercial and investment banks. Agency RMBS are residential mortgage pass-through securities, the principal and interest of which are guaranteed by the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) or the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). Its portfolio of Agency RMBS is backed by fixed rate mortgages and hybrid ARMs that typically have a fixed coupon for three, five or seven years, and then pay an adjustable coupon that generally resets annually over a predetermined interest rate index. As of December 31, 2011, its Agency RMBS portfolio consisted of 10 Year Fixed Rate, 15 Year Fixed Rate, 20 Year Fixed Rate, 30 Year Fixed Rate and Hybrid ARMs. On September 1, 2011, the Company acquired certain assets and entered into agreements to internalize its management (the Internalization).

Final Comments:
The economy is fucked, but might as well save ourselves and make money from the slaves who keeps owing money to banks b/c the Federal Reserve does not care about the taxpayers, but rather the banks.

Front Running the Fed

I am still long $CYS heavily! How heavy? Fatter than a fat chick who loves cake heavy! Half of my portfolio is filled with CYS.

As long as benny bernanke keeps interest rates low, RMBS will be FINE!

IMO this is a great stock that is in a FANtastic trend; one can day trade it with block trading considering there’s over 2mil avg daily vol, or even swing trade it. I started my positions around 14.00.

 

if you want something a bit more risky/rewarding, then take a look at CIM.

I on the other hand am just sitting on my hands right now and not doing much because i am waiting for a pull back to add/ start new positions.

I Wagered A Bet Against Ben Bernanke

Fuck his almighty casino so called “The Great Central Bank.” I will dishonor him in his own house.

 

Initiated a short on the $spy at 141.95 today.

 

 

I opened this position on my blackberry right before it died…

 

stop is 142ish…

risk: .05ish

 

 

CYS Pay .92 dividend — Surprise!

 

4:01PM Cypress Sharpridge Investments declares Q4 2012 dividend of $0.40, special dividend of $0.52 per share (CYS) 13.06 +0.10 : These dividends will be paid on December 28, 2012 to common stock stockholders of record on December 21, 2012.

When Benny Bernanke is buying all debt from banks! WE BALL!

Could be a small squeeze tomorrow as there are 14.6M shares short; if they’re still short, then they’ll pay us — stupid mooks. Maybe we’ll reclaim the 200MA.

 

Still holding shares from the 14s before the 3 qtr; so I am in the money from the dividends.

Dont be a piker or a mook

for the past few months i have been learning how to tape read and scalp. Understanding the immediate supply and demand to forecast the immediately price movements. Friday, i started to size up and actually scalp with over 1k shares

 

 

Dont be a piker or a mook and know everything about the markets.

 

Understand fundamentals, technicals and tape reading so you can make money and take it from the pikers and mooks who dont.

if i become one of the distinguished gents as a tabbed blogger, maybe ill post some vidoes on tape reading.

Week-end Recap

We opened lower earlier this morning but ripped north right away when there was “hope.” Consumer sentiment was GREAT! AWWW YEAAAH!

I on the other hand, I thought it was bullshit and ignored the Rally of Hope! Do you know why i ignored this crap? Bc it is a survey of 500 people! Those 500 people doesnt represent the entire country, so fuck these fake numbers. And Fuck the bulls that tried to shake me out of my position, i’m done and i’m tired them trying to rally this market. The market will die like a dog with the fiscal cliff around the corner like a ticking time bomb and Greece going bankrupt.

 

 

MCD marketed in @ 85.29 11/8/12 when i saw a refreshing seller at 85.40 offer; 86.00 was the support level that was supposed to be the short entry, but I was doing something else and missed it but I found another area of entry. McDonalds is a macro company that a lot of people around the world use as an index to gauge how the global economy is doing, foreign exchange differences and inflation. An example would be the Big Mac Index.

Now let’s go through some of the earnings conference call a few weeks ago:

Now, let’s turn to Europe. Third quarter comparable sales were up 1.8% and operating income grew 3% in constant currencies. We’ve been able to grow our market share despite the fact that Europe’s economic environment remains challenging and that the IEO category continues to contract as our steady measures impact consumer confidence and purchasing power. Across the board in Europe, value has become even more important as the economic crisis lingers.

Our markets have implemented a two-pronged approach, increasing their media weight and focusing on value offerings to drive traffic, while also promoting new food news in list average check. The U.K. and Russia specifically continue to deliver strong results posting solid sales for the quarter on top of strong prior year results. In the U.K., they successfully combined various sales initiatives to drive traffic and increased average check.

France’s third quarter comparable sales were positive despite continued pressures, including slowing European tourism and a declining IEO market. And even though guest counts are soft, our initiatives are resonating and we continue to gain share. We strengthen our emphasis on value by featuring Petit Plaisir nationwide. These are smaller sandwiches at the €2 price point, and we also increased advertising levels.

In addition, 600 restaurants now offer Petit free, which like the Eurosaver Menu offers great tasting products at the one to two year old price range. To promote value across the menu, French recently launched the Royale Barbecue, a quarter pound of cheese and a barbecue sauce to sales for €3.90 and delivers higher profit margins.

And while Germany hasn’t been impacted a significantly as the rest of Southern Europe economically, German consumers are some of the most sensitive to global economic news. Their high saving rates, controlled spending habits and focus on price deals all reflect continued weak consumer confidence. In response to the environment and softening sales, we’ve been focused on driving business with great offers that round out their everyday value platform, which we call the SMS menu.

In June, we introduced the McDeal extra value meal for €3.79 to augment our premium product extra value meals. Since then, we’ve experienced all time high sales of all extra value meals. The team is currently evaluating additional ways to expand the McDeal brand and to build on this momentum with more options for our customers.

In addition to combining Europe’s successful premium entries with the greater emphasis on entry price value platforms, we continue to increase the number of restaurants opened for extended hours. And we continue to modernize the brand with an ongoing focus on reimaging. Together, these actions give us confidence; the McDonald’s Europe is well positioned to succeed in a long-term.

**I delete some boring parts but you can read it all at SuckingAlpha.com
**bolded some important stuff

So here’ s my conclusion, they saw this economic slow down, did some preventative measure to protect themselves from losing money, and created more discounted meals, but they couldn’t stop the Euro-problem? So poor people aren’t buying food for €4 ? NOT GOOD.

 

These aren’t good #s and it shows how the Euro problem is really affecting them, but this is just the first month; we shall have to keep an eye on McDonalds and see if they’ve relieved this problem next month, but I seriously doubt it.

This is the fundamental problem, but let’s take a look at the psychological:

Broke the macro ascending support trendline in October after they released earnings on the monthly chart; not good.

broke another important support at 86 in the weekly; not good.

the daily was testing 84s today…

We could use something else as a view of the macro economy. Let’s take a look at the SPY

2 days below the 200ma.. not good.

 

I am still holding my BIDU short even though GOOG was told that they’re blocked in China again. 

GOOG was basically lost the battle to BIDU since 2010 b/c citizens in china could not view specific data; so it was basically the same as BIDU or crappier. Fundamentally, I still think that GOOG doesn’t have much influence in China anymore and that BIDU should just worry about QIHU taking 20% of their market share and potential shitty mobile products..which will suck b/c the mobile market share is being controlled by Samsung and AAPL. The barrier to entry too high.

BIDU is hovering below the 106 and 105 area of resistance and now it’s building a descending resistance trendline. I am looking at 103 as micro support b/c it hovers around it — this isn’t very significant for swing, but day trading, it is somewhat. Then the macro area that a lot of people are thinking about going long is the 100; this is a good area to watch to see if it would bounce or crack down and go lower.

 

Also, take notice of what happened after Obama opened his mouth around 1:15pm when he talked about increasing taxes. Drrrrrroooop!

 

Fib lvls…if we don’t get a bounce, watch these areas as support…135.16 is a crappy micro lvl; we might slice through it.

watchlist for week of 11.6.12

Huge catalyst in FB on Novemeber 13th when 49% or 1.33 billion shares lock up period will be over.

 

I will keep an eye on right now b/c I think technical analysts are looking to buy some right now b/c the 21/50ma are really close and i think they want to try and get a quick bounce from it with a breakout above the 24.25 area. I on the other hand, would probably like to see a short as more shares become outstanding on the 13th.

 

Crude breaking down; watchout below… i would love to short this if it cracks that support level

 

would short any price right here around the 200ma

Could short GLD here and then add more to the short when it cracks the 200ma

 

watch the 34.75 level

cup&handle building up here; watching for a b/o

 

Weekend Trade Recap

UPDATED: fixed some grammatical errors… idk, that shit bothers me.

 

Went Short BIDU when it broke the 106 level that everyone was screaming about and then avged up into the position, but when it kept going higher and today when the jobs # came out, it gapped up even higher. i was watching the tape the entire time to identify a place to sell my position, but i didn’t when i saw the heavy supply come in and BIDU just couldn’t get higher; especially with the two other major tech boys going down faster than any hooker i’ve ever seen. KAPLOW! BIDU gives EVERYTHING back within 20 minutes and I was par. I didn’t cut my losses when i identified the buyer @ .90 trying to hold the stock up and so it went up for a bit but later failed during mid-day and went another point lower due to 162k of accumulation puking. I don’t know who was buying, but someone was and I think they got fucked so bad that they puked .40 immediately and then he tried to buy more at the .50 but he got screwed royally and he tried to accumulate more EOD at the 105 fig.

the buyer accumulated 80k from 9:50 – 10:35am.

Then the second time before it failed, he accumulated about another 80k at 1:20-1:25pm but it didn’t workout so he let it drop to the half and he got another 107k before letting it drop to the 105 and buying another 395k there.

This guy is really trying to work his order in even if the market is going against him but if the market doesn’t go well, this guy is going to have to puke really bad just from buying about 664k today.

 

LOW made 52 highs today and it broke out from .29 (old highs) all the way to .63, but i let it pull back instead of taking immediate profits b/c this is a swing and not a day trade. I still see the cup and handle forming with the catalyst of Sandy making ppl think that this retail is going to perform awesomely from the damages it has done.

 

 

Also i am keeping an eye on the correlation between financials and tech sector; that’s another reason why i held my BIDU short even though i was ~1.5 out of the money.

XLK also pierced through the 200MA without any hesitation; this shows weakness to me in the tech sector.

 

Finally, the SPY gapped up higher today from the good jobs # on hiring, but it hit resistance when it touched the 50MA and 21MA and pierced through the micro support levels that I have drawn. This is not good considering we had a few days of consolidation and when the bulls tried to take control of the market to get away from the consolidation area, it got wrecked trying to go higher. Since the election is around the corner, next week, I think it will chop around the micro levels here until one of the candidates wins.

 

From what I am hearing, if Obama wins, sell equities and if Romney wins, sell bonds.

 

 

 

Front Running 11/1/12

TLT was a buy yesterday, but as I am always late to the race; I also wanted confirmation of a breakout. I will see if I can find a good entry tomorrow and pick up a small position.

 

I like the oversold areas and am looking for a bounce trade.

 

GOLD also an oversold stock that I am looking for a bounce, but there’s another layer of probability, the breakout… wait for it…

 

wait, wait, wait, Sandy Style….trades.

LOW: i love the cup&handle trade here; waiting for it to b/o

 

HD: another good one for a bounce trade here and potential 52 week b/o trade

 

CSX: range play here; this one is a slow one, so it will take some opportunity cost – time.

 

CNH: fuck farming equipment; short at resistance and add more when it goes higher.

 

 

 

Front Run the Fed Prt2

Update: was going to initiate a position, but prob don’t have time today

 

I am considering on taking a very significant position next week in this one stock, WMC, Western Asset Management Capital Corporation due to the open ended quantitative easing #4 that came out the other day — Sept 13. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443890304578006702760267388.html)

The Fed’s goal is not to relieve debt-serfdom, it’s to enforce it. The entire purpose of the Fed’s policies is to ensure homeowners keep paying interest to banks for the rest of the lives, and to encourage those who are not yet debt-serfs to join the serfdom with a “cheap” mortgage.” – Zerohedge
What is WMC?

Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation is focused on investing in, financing and managing primarily residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which are not issued or guaranteed by a United States Government agency or federally chartered corporation, or non-Agency RMBS. The Company also focuses on investing in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), and other asset-backed securities (ABS), as well as RMBS for which a United States Government agency or federally chartered corporation guarantees payments of principal and interest on the securities, or Agency RMBS.

 

The Company is managed and advised by Western Asset Management Company. As of June 12, 2009, the Company had not made any investments.

Reasoning:
They came out with a sexy press release on Thursday after hours saying that they are increasing their Q3 dividends significantly from $0.58 to .$0.85. But not only is it just a sexy PR, it shows how much relative strength this company is related to the Quantitative Easy that came out or how strong it is compared to the Federal Reserve’s Open Ended QE.

Thursday 4:43 PM Western Asset Mortgage (WMC) declares an $0.85/share Q3 dividend vs. $0.57 in Q2 (Q2 dividend was actually $0.38, but following its IPO, covered just half the quarter). In light of new Fed policy – “(which) may have a significant impact on the valuation of our portfolio” – the company issues guidance on its book value, believing it to be $22.68 on Sept. 14. “We continue to be pleased with the position of our portfolio.” Shares +9.2% AH.

PASADENA, Calif., Sept. 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation (NYSE: WMC) announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.85 per share for the third quarter of 2012. This dividend is payable on October 25, 2012 to common shareholders of record as of October 1, 2012, with an ex-dividend date of September 27, 2012.
The Company also announced that its estimated book value per share, as of September 14, 2012, was $22.68.

“In light of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on September 13, 2012, we believe it to be important to provide intra-quarter guidance on our current estimated book value, as we believe the Fed’s announcement and subsequent actions may have a significant impact on the valuation of our portfolio,” said Gavin James, Chief Executive Officer of Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation.  ”We continue to be pleased with the position of our portfolio, given current market conditions.”

The stock is currently $24.10 with a book value of $22.68

Strong analyst opinions from strong banks:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=WMC+Analyst+Opinion
Morgan Stanley owns a decent amount of shares:  http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=WMC+Major+Holders

Stock Chart:  http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=wmc

Yahoo Finance: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wmc&ql=1

Dividend: $0.85

Analyst Target: $24 (passed)

Ex-dividend date is September 27, 2012.

Strategy:
example of 1k shares
  • let’s say it floats around $24, i will purchase 1/4 (250) of my portfolio with this. since ex div is on  (t+3), this will need to be purchased on Monday because it takes 3 days to settle unless you pay cash and settle it the next day to get dividends, but just in case, might as well pick some up on Monday, so you can front run some people going into the ex-dividend date.
  • comes down .85 to 23.15 from $24; will purchase another 2/4 (500) to average my position
  • average price will become 23.4333333 / share but still with a book value of 22.68
  • $0.75333333 above the book value, but with DEFINITE growth due to the backing of the corrupted federal reserve, this should be able to grow significantly
  • if it does to and anywhere near book value, i will buy more to avg down due to the open ended backing of the government
  • also, this is a recently IPOd stock, so it is still under the radar and not a lot of institutional / individual investors really know about it; i think that can give an advantage to us
Shall not only be keeping an eye on the relative strength the REIT sector, but more specifically on RMBS & CMBS index, REM.
REM:  http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=REM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index Fund (the Fund) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REITs Index (the Index). The Index measures the performance of the residential and commercial mortgage real estate sector of the United States equity market.

 

The Fund will concentrate its investments in a particular industry or group of industries to approximately the same extent as the Index is so concentrated. The Fund’s investment advisor is Barclays Global Fund Advisors.

Disclosure, holding a very significant amount of CYS

CYS Investments, Inc. is a specialty finance company created with the objective of achieving consistent risk-adjusted investment income. The Company invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) collateralized by fixed rate single-family residential mortgage loans (typically 15, 20 or 30 years), adjustable-rate mortgage loans (ARMs), which typically have coupon rates that reset monthly, or hybrid ARMs, which typically have a coupon rate that is fixed for an initial period (typically three, five, seven or 10 years) and thereafter resets at regular intervals. In addition, its investment guidelines permit investments in collateralized mortgage obligations issued by a government agency or government-sponsored entity that are collateralized by Agency RMBS (CMOs), although the Company had not invested in any CMOs as of December 31, 2011.

 

The Company finances its Agency RMBS investments using a diversified approach involving repurchase agreements with multiple commercial and investment banks. Agency RMBS are residential mortgage pass-through securities, the principal and interest of which are guaranteed by the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) or the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). Its portfolio of Agency RMBS is backed by fixed rate mortgages and hybrid ARMs that typically have a fixed coupon for three, five or seven years, and then pay an adjustable coupon that generally resets annually over a predetermined interest rate index. As of December 31, 2011, its Agency RMBS portfolio consisted of 10 Year Fixed Rate, 15 Year Fixed Rate, 20 Year Fixed Rate, 30 Year Fixed Rate and Hybrid ARMs. On September 1, 2011, the Company acquired certain assets and entered into agreements to internalize its management (the Internalization).

Final Comments:
The economy is fucked, but might as well save ourselves and make money from the slaves who keeps owing money to banks b/c the Federal Reserve does not care about the taxpayers, but rather the banks.

Front Running the Fed

I am still long $CYS heavily! How heavy? Fatter than a fat chick who loves cake heavy! Half of my portfolio is filled with CYS.

As long as benny bernanke keeps interest rates low, RMBS will be FINE!

IMO this is a great stock that is in a FANtastic trend; one can day trade it with block trading considering there’s over 2mil avg daily vol, or even swing trade it. I started my positions around 14.00.

 

if you want something a bit more risky/rewarding, then take a look at CIM.

I on the other hand am just sitting on my hands right now and not doing much because i am waiting for a pull back to add/ start new positions.

I Wagered A Bet Against Ben Bernanke

Fuck his almighty casino so called “The Great Central Bank.” I will dishonor him in his own house.

 

Initiated a short on the $spy at 141.95 today.

 

 

I opened this position on my blackberry right before it died…

 

stop is 142ish…

risk: .05ish

 

 

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