Thursday, March 18th, 2010

So Continues the Crappy Music

Monday, February 22, 2010 at 2:32 pm

1

The markets continue their nonsense dance across my face this morning, and I find myself longing for the yester years of 2008.  You asshole union types despised the radiance that was the 2008 stock market sell off, but I made so much wealth off the corpses of retirees in that span of time, I wouldn’t mind another run down.

Or what about the late months of 2009, and the gifts they brought?  I made a gargantuan sum of treasure off that run as well, watching my hoard of equities appreciate past the point of being fathomable.  I’d love for the markets to keep running higher from here as well.

No, all in all, the only thing I can’t stand is having every position I own kicking me in the sternum, breakfast, lunch and dinner, like adolescents acting out against the powers that be.  On the one hand, I’ve brushed off the last two weeks as if a 400 point run down was nothing but a tiresome nuisance.  On the other hand, I missed a great opportunity.  If this sort of happenings is how we are going to define the next few months of trading, I think I’d rather get black out drunk and skip them, thanks.

I hedged my portfolio (again) last week by adding NOV and BHI shorts, which are at present treading just under the surface.  Actually, it would be more accurate to say I shorted NOV and BHI.  I intend to make money off of these trades.  However, I kept the exposure on the light side.  I think I’ve got a feel for the moment and how things are behaving, but I’d rather feel left out than dread being caught in.

To the EU: go fuck yourselves.  I’ve spent the last decades despising you fucking socialist types.  At every corner my ears get swamped with your criticism on such a host of issues from our foreign policy, to our debt obligations and how we abuse those relationships, to how being American is the mark of waste and greed.

Now, we have Greece, Spain, and Portugal spiraling into oblivion, with Britain hot on their heels and only Germany seems to be in a position to abandon them all to a sticky end.  There’s irony there, if you care to look for it.

So let me ask you, Europe; where are your smart ass critics now?  If there’s one thing I can’t stand, it’s a hypocrite; so does it strike any of you that for all your incessant bitching about how unsustainable American capitalism and growth has purportedly been, the entirety of your countries were effectively built on overconsumption, feeling entitled to services beyond your abilities and shit ass decisions?

I’ve since stopped caring about a collapse of the euro.  Let’s pretend the euro does collapse and the dollar rallies, alright?  So what?  Such a development would help to ultimately secure the future of American companies.  The money lost would more than compensate for itself.  And, since an influx of foreign currency could also be expected to flee to treasuries, then perhaps our government would find sufficient financing to encourage the Fed to stop fiddling in our immediate affairs.

I’m willing to gamble that stocks would quickly pull out of any fall and shore back up to play sideways.

In fact, the only element of our country that would be devastated from a collapse of the euro is American labor.  I already hear more irrational complaining in a day about how China is stealing American jobs than I would ever care to resubmit here.  So do you fixed income sorts honestly think you’ll survive two?

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook

In Passing…Sell NRP and CMG

Thursday, February 18, 2010 at 12:28 am

2

I sold half of my net NRP position yesterday and all of my CMG position today.  I’m looking to reduce further to a 10% cash position.  I have a large position in SLV that could be sold off and may relinquish GKK, on this huge melt up it’s experiencing, with the intent of re-entering the name at a lower level.  Or, perhaps after selling off SLV, I’ll reduce position size across the board until I have my desired cash level, while maintaining exposure to my names.

Essentially, after two weeks of nonsense, I’ve made back all the wealth of my highs, as I knew I would.  Going forward, if there should prove to be another wave of bears ready to test my lines; so be it.

Now, I’m twelve-hour-plus-work-day busy at the moment, so excuse me.

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook

A Special Prayer

Thursday, February 11, 2010 at 1:04 pm

1

Dear God,

May the idiot European country of Germany alleviate all fears of a Greek currency collapse (as per millennial tradition) by transfusion of gold bullion directly into the befallen nation and without strain on the Euro; in such proportion that the resulting currency rally might foster both the volume and dollar value per ounce of gold to rise, in a direct fashion; so as to bring about the most atrocious end of those who sell it short and hoard sinful dollars, the heathen.  And may silver then follow its honorable cousin, through the moon.

Amen.

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook

Desist Cowardice.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010 at 5:54 pm

2

I need not critique on how my last few weeks have gone, for my only judge is the value of my portfolio, which has fallen a daunting amount by this time.  It was not aided by my being tied up in extravagant labors which, as it seems, will not be let up any time shortly.  And so I have seen immense wealth slip through my fingers and find myself to be where I was before the holidays; months of hard effort lost.  I moved quickly but daftly and so I forayed through positions before finally catching myself and locking down my entire operation.

Shorts miserably executed in between other considerations; long positions cut to reduce margin; and all the while an ethereal sense of the markets.  These things have made for a terrible weekend.

Now is different, however.  My fear of the Greek city states, while warranted, has passed; thanks to the idiot German nation, which has willingly thrown itself on top of the bomb.  As other men saw what I saw, they acted as I did, but to a much greater extent; fleeing ignobly from their positions into dollars which would be in high demand from the European continent.

Sadly now, these men are left in the middle of a field with the nasty nightmares of the world circling in on them; a country which doesn’t care much for its own credibility to secure its currency.  All of these dollars are sitting out, with no purpose but a fleeting fear which will not come to pass.  Surely, the dollar will strengthen next to the Euro, in the coming months.

But how much, do you believe?

These men who have their life’s work in their pockets will either see diminished inexorably or else turn a run.  And know this; they shall run back into equities and commodities.

They will run when Bernanke, sensing that our currency is once more strong enough to be leeched off of, further devalues the currency to pad state budgets.  When he presses the blade against their useless necks to bleed them for all they are worth.

I took the course today; I covered all of my PAY hedge, and I purchased SLV with conviction.  I still hold as longs MO, NRP, MGM, LPHI, and NM.  Now I also hold CWCO; a water utility stock.

Perhaps I shall follow Jake and the Fly into gold as well?  Who knows?

What I do know is this; I lost a considerable fortune recently, and I’ll be damned if I don’t get it back.

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook

Goodbye Margin…Soon

Friday, February 5, 2010 at 3:40 pm

5

This market has transformed into an unprecedented state and must be adapted to.  As such, I’ve cleaned my portfolio of all shares of FUQI, RMCF, and PNY.  Somewhat baffling is the fact that my RMCF and PNY shares were still sold for profits, even after everything that’s happened over the last two weeks.  FUQI was just a broad slaughterhouse of my portfolio.

At present, the main threat I’m seeing is not a panic induced selling.  Really, if people want to flip ape shit and sell everything to zero, it would no more bother me than if they all simultaneously choked on a gun barrel and played a nice quiet game of, “listen for the click.”

No, rather, what I’m afraid of is this persistent strengthening of the dollar.  Much of my plans were centered around the deterioration and consistency of a lower dollar.  However, as the dollar has rebounded forcefully, so has my portfolio fallen to pieces.  Names like NRP, SLB, PNY or FUQI, and other such commodity plays which rely on higher commodity prices or, as some of you may find surprising, names like RMCF and NM, which rely on consistently higher commodity valuations for increased profit margins, are all going to suffer.

Therefore, today I decided to clean house.  My ultimate decision was subject to two primary criteria; sector prospects and dividend yield.  Needless to say, I scratched some names I felt were the most risky at present.  I incorporated the dividend yield into my planning so that I could benefit from direct dollar deposits into my account and continue to prosper from a margin position which trends net positive.

As to my margin, I still have some left, mainly from reinforcing many of my positions this week (obviously too early) and not wishing to go backwards and undo those purchases.  Thus, this is why I deem balancing dividend yields important.  However, I’m no longer partial to holding margin.  Know that if the dollar holds this much sway, any turmoil on the European continent will lead to lower stock prices.  If a major nation defaults it will either translate into direct purchases of dollars in an attempt for safety or, depending on the nation, devastate the Euro (which will result in a direct purchase of dollar any way).  Either way, dollars will sell like hot cakes, i.e. en masse.

God help debtors when that happens.  Names like BAC or MGM are nicely situated at the moment with shit tones of debt but, thanks to increased revenue flows from shit ass dollars, indefinite amounts of time to crawl out of the hole.  A strengthening currency changes all of that.

However, you’ll notice I’m holding MGM still.  If the European Ponzi scheme falters, I’d expect the Fed to absolutely bomb the hell out of the currency, providing dollars for all who want them.  Hurray!

Don’t hold me to that though.

Finally, don’t expect that just because the tide feels like it’s turning, that all stocks are shit.  Specifically, financial companies like LPHI (read financial companies that actually have finances, as opposed to debt), will be situated to do quite nicely.

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook

Covered OSK, Bought NRP and NM

Tuesday, February 2, 2010 at 1:31 pm

2

I covered my OSK at $38.75 from $36.41 for a mutilating 6% loss.  It’s remarkable that an auto supplier can do so well, despite having so much shit on their books.  If there was a short I felt safe with, it was this one.  Thank God I only used it as a hedge.  If I had the mindset to try and make money off of that, it could have killed me.

In the meantime, I’ve gathered more shares of NRP, increasing my stake by a nice chunk.  Those are handsomely rewarding me, as I write, running past $24 a share.  The best thing about that stock is the spread between its dividend yield and my marginal interest.  It essentially services itself; an important distinguishing feature, in the world of today.

I just purchased NM at $6.20; literally, I had to go back and add this line.

FUQI seems to be sprinting here.  I purchased some of that a week or two ago.

At the moment, I have a compelling interest to wash PNY off my books, north of $26, and will be doing so at the first available moment.  That was a good trade, but it has since dwindled, and I don’t care to stash those shares in my long term reserve.

Have you seen GKK lately?  I have.  I’ll be grateful I stashed those away, before the end.  Wait and see.

In closing, I’m holding GKK, LPHI, MGM, MO, NM, NRP, PNY, RMCF, and FUQI.  I’m still short PAY.  I desire to add some water services and utilities stocks, as well as to regain a position with an oilfield service company that offers a larger dividend, provided this run down in oil holds and drags a few under with it.

Post to Twitter Post to Digg Post to Facebook