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tradingnymph

Stock Junkie. Use to practice Crim Law, now I watch the US/Asian/Europe Sessions mixing Equities, Currencies, Bonds, Commodities into a Fibo mix. Also, apply a "Nymph Version" of Terry Laundry's T Theory into my kitchen sink of analysis. At the moment, I have been fixated on a Copper Bubble out of Shanghai that started to form in early 2009..been watching it for the last 2 plus years to understand how bubbles form and finally bust to build a strong Macro Analysis. Been a Junkie since July 2007 when I stumbled on to Jim Cramer's Stockpickr, he was my first teacher. Learned T/A from Rev Shark's Bloggers and Harry Boxer. IN 2010 I clicked onto IBC and found THE FLY who has been my Teacher in MARKET MAGIC, he doesn't know he is my Teacher, but he is. My Fibo Analysis is a Nymph Creation of a mix of Moving Averages and Levels that most never use. I blog about the market everyday at TradingNymphTradingDiary.com

Nymph’s Take for Next week…I Cry when Angels Deserve to Die/Chop Suey

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSvFpBOe8eY]

Well Next week, Will I cry for a Market that deserves to die, or rather an overbought market finally continuing its downtrend or will it just be Chop Suey?

For next week we have FOMC meeting, which normally the market chops leading into that. We also have the third revision of our GDP data and the Weekend brings us the G 20.

We have the same trading range from last week with a high of 1124ish and support in the 1054ish range. Euro/USD still has that key 1.2132ish range to watch. In addition, Shanghai Comp is weak again tonight, so we could be seeing it test its recent lows 2511 next week, tonight it is down to 2514ish. Bottom-line, the market is overbought and mainland China is weak so our market may finally sell off?

Also, keep your eyes open on Home Sales Data and a few home builders because they could have a short squeeze if the data is “not a miss” after all the weak data that has been coming out since the tax credit ended.

Monday

There is very little data coming out. In Australia we have the New Vehicle Sales which is considered an indicator for consumer confidence. In addition, I will be watching the Iron Ore Spot price out of China and India. After China being on vacation for most of this past week the spot market has been flat with very little activity, we will see if the buyers will be back on Monday.

In the United States, not much in regards to economic data, there is a Bond Auctions at 11:30 for 3 and 6 months bills.

How to Trade This

No real data at all. This means that the market will just follow the trend from Friday normally. One interesting note, Market Semiotics’ Woody Dorsey proprietary sentiment readings pointed to “upside tries” since June 9th. He has indicated that it could point to a bounce into June 18-23 before giving way to the Summer Bummer he’s been predicting for months

Tuesday

Overnight we will get the Germany Ifo Data; this is the twin brother of the ZEW survey. The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. In Germany. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months.

In the US session, we will get Canada CPI data that could show a possible increase in inflation which could give Canada rate hawks a boost and help Oil if the Euro is stronger by raising the Looney pairs.

In the US, we get Existing home sales which are released by the National Association of Realtors and it provides an estimated value of the housing market for May. We also get Aprils Housing Index from the FHFA..Federal Housing Finance Agency which should have good numbers due to the fact it was before the end of the Tax Credit. We also get to hear from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (that is Virginia, Caroline area). It’s a survey that includes information on shipments, new orders, order backlogs, and inventories and information on current activity in the manufacturing sector there.

At 1est we have the 2 year note auction. Last month results were soft, with the auction nearly 1 basis point over the 1:00 bid with the non-dealer takedown of 51 percent below the 55 percent average. Bid to Cover was at 2.93 which was the weakest of the last four auctions, yet the 2009 bid to cover was an average of 2.40. Before JEF, WAG, Ccl, after bell adbe,jbl report earnings.

How to Trade This

Last week the German Zew data was way below estimates. Instead of the Euro selling off there was Central Bank buying which caused a short squeeze of the euro/usd. The German Ifo Data will probably also be weak, we need to watch if central banks will come into the market again to try and support the Euro again. Since last week a lot of the shorts did get shaken out so I would not expect such a jump up on bad data. The focus is to see how the Euro and European Markets moves when the data is released. If nobody comes in to support it, we could get the movement we should have had with the bad Zew data last week. This would of course would cause a selloff in the commodities and other global growth plays.

Yet, even with that, the day when the Fed starts their meeting and the day before its Rate Policy announcent is normally just choppy as everyone is focused on what they are going to say.

Wednesday

Late at night we will get the release of the Bank of England’s Minutes of their last meeting.

In the US session we get Canada Retail Sales. Plus, more Housing Data with the US New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau comes out for May.
At 1est we get the 5 year treasury auction, last month the results were also soft with a bid to cover at 2.71, slightly lower than the previous month. Retail Dealers ended up taking a 44 percent share of the auction, slightly higher than average. The auction stopped out at 2.13 percent in 2009 the average bid to cover was cover was about 2.35 in 2009.

Then we get what we all have been waiting for the FOMC Interest Rates Release at 2:00 est. Of course they will be leaving rates the same but we will all be listening along to hear if all the words are the same from last month. Which they probably will be. Before the bell we get earnings from RAD, KMX and after the close we get earnings from BBBY, DRI, NKE, and CKE among others.

How to Trade This

FOMC Chop Dance for the Morning. We will be watching to make sure that the 5 year auction goes OK at 1 est. CarMax KMX will be a very interesting earnings due to whether there is a demand still for used cars which everyone has been playing. But normally people say to wait a few minutes before you trade on the release of the minutes because there is normally a head fake in the wrong direction.

Thursday

In the European Session we get EMU’s industrial new orders from Eurostat. Which captures the value of new contracts for goods in the manufacturing sector; this is April Data so with the recent slowdown in China take it for whatever it is worth.

In the US Session we get from the Bureau of Census the May US durable goods numbers. This measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. It should be in line at this point.

At 1 pm EST we have the 7 year auction. Last month’s auction went better than the 5-year and 2-year auctions. Bid to Cover was respectable at 2.88. Retail demand was also respectable with dealers taking 38 percent vs. an average of 37 percent for this issue. 2009 bid to cover average was around 2.57. For earnings before the bell we get CAG, LEN and after the close ORCL, PALM, RIMM.

How to Trade This

As long as the 7 year auction goes ok we should continue the trend that started right after the FOMC announcement.

Friday

In the Asian session we get the China Business Sentiment Survey data. In the US session we get the First Quarter, Third Estimates of the GDP and First Quarter revised Corporate Profits. Before the bell we get earnings from KBH.

How to Trade This

The GDP data should be inline. Friday is normally known for risk off leading into the G 20. But, we may have shorts cover in the last hour of trade.

Weekend G 20 Meeting

Glocal crisis will be high on the agenda at the G20 summit in Toronto on June 26 and 27. Europe will be pushing for global taxes on the banks and financial transactions. China has also been saying that their Currency should not be a subject of discussion. Normally these meetings have high hopes but they normally turn into photo sessions.

PS…I never mention regular weekly data in these articles. As we all know we get our Redbook, GS/ICSC retail sales data on Tuesday. Unemployment Data on Thurs .Tuesday API data after the close. Wed Oil Inventory and MBA Applications and Thur Nat Gas inventory data.

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China Markets Closed Until Thursday…They’re “On a Boat”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8F3UE9qFsg]

The Dragon Boat Festivals Started in China last night. Well, what is that and why should we care?

It’s an ancient Chinese Holiday that falls on the fifth day of the fifth lunar month. This year it runs from June 13-16th. There are differing legends about the holiday; one is that an official drowned himself when he heard his side lost an important battle. Everyone was so upset that they threw food to the fish so that they wouldn’t touch his body and raced to recover his body in long, narrow boats.

During this week Mainland China will be racing dragon boats and eating Zongzi which is to symbolize the food that was thrown in the water for the fish.

So you are saying, that’s nice but how does it affect my trading and the markets?

Bottom-line, the global markets have been directly affected by how mainland China has been trading for a longtime. Shanghai Comp sells off hard, we normally sell off. Right now that index is in a death cross on their daily chart with a very weak support level.

As you know, Mainland China has three primary markets Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hushen. I have been in long debates on other blogs last summer whether Shanghai reflects China vs. the Shenzhen. I follow Shanghai Comp but that is just a personal choice. That is what I normally blog on too.

The Hang Seng is actually the Hang Seng Indexes which is a wholly -owned subsidiary of Hang Seng Bank, established in 1984 and is Hong Kong’s leading index compiler covering Hong Kong and mainland China markets. It is widely seen as the barometer of the Hong Kong stock market. So not a pure mainland China indicator.

Over the last week the Spot Prices for Iron Ore out of China and India has been moving down even with the USA rally in our equities. The Baltic Dry Index has also been moving down. Steel prices has been weaker and copper, etc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been down trending.

Now the question arises is whether we will see a pickup of activity after they return from the Boat Races?

What concerns me is that we didn’t see a huge jump in buying in February when China returned from New Year’s celebrations. That was before the China Government reduced lending by the banks in attempt to reining in the property market and all the speculator loans they created lending to everyone in 2009.

So, Thursday will be important for our markets when they come back to see if we see a start up in activity. The Shanghai Futures Exchange which follows Shanghai Copper, Rubber, Oil, Rebar and other key commodities could be the best “acid test” for demand.

In addition the China Government normally likes to make policy announcements regarding the Yuan when the Markets are on holiday; I believe if the US Government did not push them to tighten they would have taken action this week. Actually, they may still take action in other ways besides raising rates.

Yet, China Daily tonight is reporting that “Faster-than-expected export growth in May is unlikely to prompt the government to have a major rethink of its current policies on trade and the currency.

Yao Jian, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said the “stability” of China’s trading policy is “paramount”, given the murky economic situation in Europe, which is China’s biggest trade partner.

He said robust exports in May were mainly a result of orders booked before the deepening of Europe’s debt crisis.

“In the next few months, the negative impact of Europe’s debt crisis on Chinese exports may gradually show up,” Yao said on Saturday”.

We will see, until then let’s race boats and throw sticky rice into the water… And wait for Wednesday night to see how China trades in the Asian Session.

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A Song

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOoRmn8y97Q 616 500]

Ah, Will This Market finally start to roll over so we can see Red Again? This is also a Test Blog so I can see if I figured out how to add a video to my post.

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Nymph’s Take for Next Week….Zew Zew’s Petals

ZUE ZUE PETALS….ZEW ZEW PETALS….Macro Humor

Well, Euro Trash is still holding us up over SPX 1070 and Eur/USD 1.2134 but boy it was close and that level is still a battle field. So let’s look at what next week will bring us. Next week is Option Ex, in fact it will be quadruple Witching, so that means heavy volatility on Wednesday when all the market players will be pushing their positions up or down to hit the Strike Price of their choice. We really only have two major earnings next week BBY on Tuesday and FDX on Wednesday. Yet, those two companies could really give us insight into our consumer. UNG has its monthly roll over dates the 14th-17th.

OVERALL TRADE FOCUS FOR THE MARKET NEXT WEEK

If Euro/USD can stay over 1.2134 then this rally can continue. But if it can’t, good-bye oversold rally and good riddance to it (I know Fly I have to get away from my bias). Tuesday’s GERMAN ZEW DATA will probably be the BIG EVENT that establishes whether it will hold. Also, due to the oversold nature of so many stocks, the triple etf’s gives you the best firepower so why mess around with individual names, but be careful they are wild to say the least. The SPX resistance top would be around 1121 and support around 1054ish.

Monday

Australian Banks will be closed for Queens Birthday. New Zealand Retail Sales come outand European Monetary Union releases Industrial Production Data for April, this basically shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. If it is up it is a sign of inflation concerns and could spike the Euro. This is really our only major economic data.

HOW TO TRADE ON IT. Without much of earnings or economic data driven market, the market will probably continue the trend it was following on Friday due to the fact that currency pairs and commodities should remain in range.

Tuesday

RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) releases their Minutes of their last Interest Rate Meeting. They normally talk about how they see the global market and it is an interesting read. Bank of Japan Interest Rates is due. BoJ has an interest rate of .1 percent and should keep it at that level during this two day meeting. UK has CPI data. That is The Consumer Price Index which measures price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. It’s another Inflation measuring tool. China releases its leading index

Then comes the key moment of the week, the ZEW Survey results for GERMANY and European Union for JUNE. It is this survey measures the institutional investor sentiment of how they feel about the present time and the future.

USA Import Prices are released from the Department of Labor. It is a measure of Inflation and we get a NY State of Mind, with the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index which is a survey done by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that takes a survey of Manufactures in New York

HOW TO TRADE ON IT. The Zew Survey results normally are Market movers that carry over to the United States. Everyone is expecting a weaker number so if inline or higher it could really cause a greater short squeeze in the Euro Pairs and resulting a positive move in all the global growth plays, i.e. Tech,commodities,etc. mainly all the plays from 2009. In addition, BoJ meeting could keep the Yen on the weak side. This could also be strengthening with softer import prices to keep USD weak. But if ZEW misses, back to watching to see if it can stay above the KEY 1.2134 level for the EUR/USD…..and FLY will be watching his FXY for a weaker Yen. For Stock plays if ZEW is a beat I would check out BBY to see how they did before the bell.

Wednesday

Employment data for the UK, their Non Farm Payroll will be release. The European monetary Union will release its Consumer Price Index numbers. In the USA, housing Starts, which are new home construction and Building Permits which shows the number of Building Permits for new construction projects will be released. We also will get our Producers Price Index Data which shows possible inflation.

We also get to listen to Ben B. He will be giving a press conference as to how the Fed sees the current US economy and the value of USD

HOW TO TRADE ON IT. Europe could be looking at growing unemployment and higher inflation so we could see some Euro risk. With Ben B probably talking about how good it is we could see the Rate Hawks out talking about a possible interest rate hike in the future. If our housing data misses we could have a Risk Off day, and if we keep this rally from last Thursday going it would be an overbought market probably and ripe for a sell off. A sell off would also make sense for Option Players trying to push down their positions to hit strike Put prices because any older calls are out of the money and many may have bought lower Put strike prices. Also we get Earnings from Federal Express FDX, before the bell, the CEO normally gives us a clearer picture of the global picture. VXX may be the play.

Thursday

Swiss Interest Rate Decision will come out, can’t seem to find anyone really talking about it yet. We also get the EMU Monthly Report which the European Central Bank publishes a monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. Bank of Japan releases theirs on Friday. We also get UK Retail Sales coming out. In the USA session we get the Consumer Price Index data which goes to issue of inflation.

HOW TO TRADE ON IT. With the UNG finishing the rolling over of their Contracts and probably our weekly data from the EIA/DOE showing a bigger build of Nat Gas inventories, it may be a good day to re examine any of your Nat Gas holdings you may be long in. UK Retail Sales if it misses could carry over to help on a “Risk off play” mainly at us back down trending. USA will probably be pushing China to rise which will be also playing into a sell off.

Friday

BOJ Policy Meeting results are released; mainly the Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility. Also, Germany’s Producers Price Index is released which again addresses inflation issues.

HOW TO TRADE ON IT. I would again be watching the Yen. It actually could be firming up and we could see a Friday Risk Off play across the market. With it being Option Ex and if we had a big drop down to SPX 1054ish I would expect a choppy day.

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My Favorite Moving Average

Same goes for Market Indicators
By Trading Nymph
Every month I get a copy of Futures Magazine, they normally give out free subscriptions at most Trader Expos. Anyway, one month I noticed a chart in it using the 89 Simple Moving Average as a Trend Indicator. It’s a Fibonacci number and something a little different from the 50/100/200 that most use. Since then I have added about 10 Fibonacci SMA’s to my chart analysis but I have found that by watching the SPX minute chart every day that the 89 MA seems to always become the key support/resistance of daily movement.

When it breaks clean support it normally drops pretty fast. The other Fibonacci MA’s also act as support/resistance and normally the movement between the two create the wedges and patterns that so many t/a’s love to focus on. But, out of all of them the 89 MA seems to be the strongest when it is watched for the trend.

What is your favorite?

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The PPT and ME

Wanted to download lil Wayne Got Money..like PPT still figuring it out
By Trading Nymph
Well, over the Memorial Weekend I joined The PPT services to see what the heck it was all about. Not knowing where to start, I started a Forum to document my learning experience and keep handy all my notes as I attempt to learn this system that the Fly created. If you are a PPT member my Forum is simply call “Help, I am new in here”. For the first weekend I worked on how the Fly scores each stock and sector. Getting that under my belt, I have been trying to understand how to work the total score and its movement into my own method of analysis of the market. Truth be known, my method will show the potential of a move and the resistance/support levels…along with a longer term movement….but I always lacked the answers of why something would hold support or go right thru it. Yes, the traditional T/A, Fundamentals, etc could justify it, but I wanted something that could give me a forward view, especially a forward view that made sense of the illogical, things like people falling all over themselves to buy garbage and running their PE’s to crazy levels.
I know I am not using PPT “Hybrid Score” in a traditional method of when it hits overbought you sell and oversold you buy. I have never been good at following rules. Anyway, today the Market started with a reading of Oversold and the first hour there was an attempted rally that took place. The next intraday score of the total market dropped down to “Sell”. I began to wonder, what happens if this “sell” was an indication that the volume and movement of Fly’s special blend of FX, Oil, Gold, Silver,etc behind this attempted rally was not there and it would simply turn at one of the normal turning points of the day. I believed, if this is the case, it would continue a downtrend until we hit an oversold “panic” sell or finally see a Buy on the total Market? Maybe this is how everyone uses the intraday scores, or it could just be me, the Rebel without a Clue…..we will see tomorrow if the pattern continues? Yes, I know, many are expecting a rally due to an Oversold reading….I will watch for that too…but of course I am still holding , as the Zombie would call it, my Armageddon Portfolio of SMN, DRR, VXX, FXP, AUY with only a small biotech play as a hedge…the reason for that, even if we have dip buying, I see this as one massive bubble created by a speculator market funded by Chinese. But, that’s some rant I could save for another blog someday.
So, if you are a PPT member and have any great insights in the use of the Hybrid Score I would love to hear about them. And on a personal note, this weekend, thank you.

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