BP continues, CEO still hated, love those talking cats
Oh Boy, Oh Boy July 1st is next Thursday, the start of a New Earning Season..Oh I must decorate, go buy presents…I love the smell of a fresh brand new earning Season.
So what will be watching? Well, we are going to be watching if China is going to buy commodities after China Government cut export rebates which start on July 15. Also, Eur/USD is still holding the 50% support of 1.2134ish still but the Oz (Australian dollar) has been getting weaker, so we need to watch that.
Also, we have the biggie event on Friday, The Non Farm Payroll Numbers. We know the game plan, Wednesday and Thursday we will be thinking and talking about what the heck the numbers will be…the suspense is always so crazy. Our SPX range should be 1045ish for the low and 1121ish for the high.
Most are expecting Window Dressing for the end of the month. Normally, when everyone is waiting for something it won’t come. So let’s look at what we will be looking at next week, will our Summer Bummer ala Woody Dorsey still continue on?
Monday
German CPI data which will give us any indicator of possible inflation.
In the USA we get core personal expenditure for May and also Personal Income from the Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis or BEA, so we find out how much everyone is getting paid and how much we are spending each month. Could tell for possible “Vortex Action” ala Fly. At 11:30 est. we get 6/3 month auctions.
How to Trade This
Mutual Fund Monday may start to get nervous being long into the start of earning season and upcoming NFP data. We actually could see a selloff, especially if Friday’s Trend continues down.
Tuesday
Overnight the Japan Industrial Production will be released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry which measures Japanese Mining and Factories. We could get a risk off move if good. Later we get the EMU confidence data from the European Commission, this is for June, so we get to hear about surveys of consumers, executives,etc to see what everyone is thinking in Europe. Last week’s Ifo data out of Germany wasn’t that bad so maybe they won’t be that depressed.
When USA opens we get to see if our Confidence is up too? We get to hear how consumers are feeling from June from the The Conference Board which is a “global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest”, Ok. , Case Shiller for April comes out, this was before the Tax Credit ended it of course, looks at changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 regions across the US. At 11:30 we get the 1 year auction and the 4 week auction too. At 3:00 we get Farm Prices from the Department of Agriculture which is an end of the month the index of prices received by farmers for the current month.
GIS General Mills after the bell
How to Trade This
Little data that could really move things. Trend should continue. Companies normally preannounce about 20 days before they report; with the problems in Europe and decrease in growth in China we should expect to start to hear them come in about this time. Watch the Ag names around the Farm Report, especially because MON is reporting in the morning.
Wednesday
UK GDP from the office of National Statistics comes out and in the Our Session the Canada GDP comes out. Both we are looking for hope of continued growth, Sterling and CAD can move on data.
In the USA the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index comes out which sees how giddy the Chicago Purchasing Managers are and we get our first piece of “What will NFP be on Friday” game with the ADP (Automatic Data Processing) Employment figures come out.
Before the bell MON, After APOL
How to Trade This
ADP could be better than expected, which could give a relief rally if we had been selling off. Watch MON.
Thursday
First we get Japan Taken Data from the Bank of Japan so we can see what the business climate in Japan is. Then “PMI’s AROUND THE WORLD” starts off with China when their Purchasing Managers Index comes out. The “PMI’s around the world” continues when we get to hear what Purchasing Managers from Germany, UK, EMU, Swiss, etc comes out. This normally will carry over into the US session. If they are happy and have their “PMI Party Hats On” we could open big..So we have to watch for this.
In USA, we continue with the “What will NFP Be” game with the Monster Employment Index and the job loss report from Challenger Gray & Christmas, an outsourcing consulting company. Many look to that report to get a feel for NFP numbers for Friday. Motor Vehicle Sales, ISM manufacturing, Construction spending, Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors will also come out that will give us a pulse of Consumers. Canada will be out celebrating Canada Day.
The start of earnings season, STZ, MEI, MSM after the bell FLOW
How to Trade This
Because we are getting NFP Friday morning it could be some heavy whipsaw action. With the PMI’s around the world probably weaker than previous month we could have a continued sell off but Challenger, Monster could give hope…yep, whipsaw. For myself I will be interested in earnings. Each Earnings Season seems to have a theme, and I normally can spot the trend after about 20 or so earnings calls. Can’t wait to see what this Earning Season will bring.
Friday
EMU Producers Price index comes out in the early morning from Eurostat and it is an index that watches the prices received by Manufactures. In the morning we get our Biggie… USA Nonfarm number and May Factory Orders.
How to Trade This
NFP is a Survey, random, crazy and don’t believe anyone who says they have any idea what it will be. The trick to it is not to watch market action…but instead the F/X action after it is announced. You have to watch to see if it is playing Risk On (Euro, OZ, KIWI, and CAD moves up) or Risk Off (USD and Yen moves up)…they are the lead dog and normally market action right after the report could cause a head fake.
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thanks
nice operative calendarium
Fransesco, Thank you. For me it’s a way to look for a pattern and to focus my head into what everyone may be thinking…there are a lot of other things happening of course…but I am trying to focus my analysis in on what is really important and cut out the noise.
Awesome, thanks.. 🙂
LOL
I can haz oil?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM
Thanks for the recap!
LOL…even Kevin Costner couldn’t help…
Omen and Kenai..Thank you…and if I forgot anything you see as really important let me know!
Hey Nymph… ran into this part of the website thanks to the iBankCoin iPhone app. Absolutely fantastic collection of data points and personal opinion going into the week. Please keep these coming. Going to add this to my bookmark collection. Again, great job.
Myke, Thank you…but I only have one day left as The Peanut King…ahh Peanut Princess, it’s only a one month thing so there will be a new person here next month based on who got the most votes. I will be back in the gallery. The King can’t have votes so no back to back months….but thank you!
Wed UK GDP is delayed until July 12 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575336674242612774.html?mod=googlenews_wsj