iBankCoin
Joined Oct 26, 2011
20 Blog Posts

TIME KEEPS ON TICKING….$MOV $FOSL $SWGAY

…. into the future. Folks, I apologize for degenerate behavior. A posh site like this deserves more. Like my innaugural piece on TheStreet.com — this one will also come in the form of correspondence with a fellow pm, analyst, trader, wealth manager . . . whatever title tickles your fancy. It’s all the same shit. As one Icelandic gent I ran into said in his “native” accent . . . “the idea is to grow the capital”.

I promise to be better folks.

With that . . .

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dear penis-addled money-manager,

the horology space is interesting.

i have been following the demise of FOSL and UHRN:SWX or US ADR SWGAY —— swissies of course has unexpected issues added when the CHF depegged from EUR

the weird thing is that idiots at TIF are “relaunching” men’s high end watches — 3K to 15K [ unclear what % of the business this aims to be, but the fact that they are taking it that direction is a bit nutty, albeit a high margin biz ]

men make up 60-65% of high end watch buyers, fyi (or perhaps watch recipients)

meanwhile, they are touting “NEW YORK” and being a “new yorker” as the case for the brand and the fact that its scarce in watches as the reason emotional buyers will be interested in their baubles

quoting:

CEO Frederic Cumenal: “Frankly, I’m more interested in the specifics of the company, of the brand, not about generalization. Generalization are extremely interesting for public debate, but here, we are very much focusing on Tiffany. And frankly, one of the differences that we have at Tiffany is – and I’m using that a little bit as a teasing line, but I’m the ultimate New Yorker. I’m even not American. I live in New York. I always live in big cities around the globe. And this is what New York is made of, attracting – I don’™t know if I’m talented so I’m putting myself in this category, but it’s a very creative or talented people or people that are just dying to change their life or to do something else. And the spirit transpires, is going through the brands such as Tiffany, this obsession to go for innovation.”

collectors won’t touch this shit, imo

quoting:

“The second emotion can be summarized with this gesture. When you want to show your watch, when you want to be seen with your watch, you want to show your success with an expensive watch. Here again, we want our watch collection to become iconic but our products are not designed with the goal of signaling [status]. Quite the opposite, we think we could flip the argument and becomes the best alternative to some of the big brands. Sometimes you go at a dinner and maybe in this room and you see many people with the same watch. Where is [this credibility] here? Tiffany, during its launch, has a terrific opportunity to become the refined alternative to all those big watch brands, these are best [secretive] stone, the watch of the one in the know who want to be different, yet not ready to go for niche brands but instead to go for one of the most desirable brands in the world but not too distributed yet in watches.”

a sidenote on gem prices:

Petra Diamonds managed to bump up production levels in the year to June, which helped it to eke out a forecast beating rise in revenues even as diamond prices dropped. Revenues rose 1 per cent to $430.9m, topping analyst forecasts of $408.9m, while diamond prices dropped 6 per cent year on year. Production rose 16 per cent to 3.7m carats, which puts the FTSE 250 diamond miner on track to hit its long term target of 5m carats per year a year earlier that previously expected in 2018, it said. The diamond market has been struggling in recent years. Similarly to other commodities, the diamond market has been rocked by declining retail demand from China and the strong US dollar. It has also suffered from a series of more specific issues, such as an excess of polished diamonds which have swelled inventories and cut demand and prices and liquidity problems plaguing for many suppliers. However, diamond prices improved in the second half of the year as the US dollar weakened. Johan Dippenaar, CEO of Petra Diamonds, commented: Petra has recorded further strong growth, leading to record production levels. Petra is fully financed to completion of its expansion programmes, all of which remain on track, and its financial position is in line with expectations, including the related debt facility covenant measurements. The company said it expects capital expenditure to drop 26 per cent to $218m next year, $130m in 2018 and $85m in 2019. It said it hopes to become free cash flow positive in 2017, anticipating a ramp-up in production from all its recent investment coming on line.

meanwhile FOSL call, paraphrasing here . . .

for 3 quarters we had stable headwinds, but in 1q16 there was another leg lower in wristwatches

they bot a small indiegogo funded operation to slap some fitness tracking tech into all their wholesale lines in one swoop . . . all rolling out for xmas this year

details: http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2015/11/12/fossil-group-to-buy-misfit-for-260-million/

let us see what happens here, i am not convinced that the purveyor of psychological atrocities TIF doesn’t see another leg down (not sure how silver prices impact . . . probably + for top line, but pressure on GMs)

per Archie, excellent horological youtube analyst in below vid :

“The maaahket in in the shitttaaaa faaahakkkkkkas” —

lastly, have you been following the SIG saga?

probably more to go there . . . specialty finance masquerading as retail once again

JG

ps: per last quarter’s MOV call : 50% of their “focus group” (n=1000) was not interested in smart watches — go figure.

pps: go big or go home — for a cool $700,000

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One comment

  1. Dr. Fly

    lol. Love Archie

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