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American Virility Trumps Fed Stock Picking Model



I dont do Fed anymore.

For one thing, it’s always the same conversation. For another, it doesn’t make you money.

That’s not an idle complaint. Interest rates don’t predict stock movements. Neither do 10 year yields, dividends, or the Shiller CAPE PE.  Here, via Vanguard is a whole list of conventional indicators that mean almost nothing in terms of forecaster future stocks moves:




Nothing Yellen can possibly say will help you pick stocks. It’s not actionable information.


So instead of parsing Yellen I revisited the Batman indicator. Like a NY Times reporter I tweaked my data set until I found a nice fat correlation to support my idiotic assertion. As you can see in the attached graphic, my work has uncovered a concerning indicator for stocks.

Please do nothing with your portolfios based on this information (statistically accurate though it is).

(Thanks to the Economist for their inspiring, if limited, base graphics)



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