I know you want to chase the rally. In less than a week all your fears of a market crash have pulled a 180 and become a pit in your stomach that grows larger and more painful every time you see Netflix slide across the screen up $4. Good lord you missed the entire correction of 2016!
It feels like the only way to assuage the pain is getting long. Sure, you missed the lows but you can still catch the meat of this move if you hurry up and buy. You really want to wait?! You waited yesterday and all that did was cause you to miss the gap higher this morning.
Every time I look at Amazon it’s a dollar higher and openly mocking me for not buying it below $500. Shares of AMZN are a Siren Mermaid, becoming more irresistible as they get more expensive. They aren’t just going higher. They are naughty.
Amazon is supposedly up today on news the former bookseller is going to start selling private label clothing.
I’m picturing lots of khaki. Suffice it to say Amazon has a ways to go before it catches up to Nike. The point is, Amazon news is being driven by the fact the stock is higher, not the other way around.
Market timing isn’t magic. It’s not science. It’s art and probabilities. Right now the most likely scenario is this rally carries just a little higher than anyone thinks then dies a miserable death. All the stocks being squeezed a lot (GoPro) and a little (TWTR) today will most likely take out old lows, if past is prelude (which it never is precisely but often enough to pay attention).
We could go back to old highs but a full bull market from here is the lower probability bet. So the smart money says take gains but, wow, chasing would feel so much better.
For my personal siren, about $580 for Amazon is the level at which I plan to have my son bolt my hands down so I can’t get long just a little bit. Rallies tend to be the most dangerous time of bear markets. Control your emotions by paying attention to little things like the way I notice Amazon is flirting with me.
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I have the duct tape out to keep my hands away from the trading platform. NFLX has been calling my name.
I so want to short $AMZN but sometimes that feels like telling the world,
I killed JFK with one shot from the grassy knoll.
Haha. This is a great post. Hilarious, reflective, informative.
Have a standing sell order for 575.00 from what buy below 500.00. Sounds about right.
So hard not to chase now.
long AMZN here. time to tolerate some fart money spew…
You are a charting god – the overlays add more value than any chartist I have ever seen before