Joined Dec 1, 2015
135 Blog Posts

Stocks on pace to fall 97% in 2016

Welcome to the Month of Macke on iBankCoin!

We’ve got all kinds of exciting things planned but at the moment we have more pressing matters.

The S&P500 is down about 1.5% after everything that could go wrong did over the weekend. In the unlikely event the pace of this sell-off continues throughout the year the S&P will finish 2016 down more than 97% at around 50.  For the record, I am a buyer in size anywhere under 100.

If your 2016 investing plan hinged on Peace in the Middle East and unfettered Chinese capitalism you should probably sell. For every hour the Chinese have spent as capitalists they’ve got 100 days of experience being tyrants. Experience matters because it informs decision making under stress. When the Shanghai Comp fell 7% overnight the Chinese had a choice. They could let the free hand of capitalism find a price level for the $SSEC or go with their gut slam the market shut and execute some bears in public.

Obviously the Chinese went with the latter. It won’t work because government manipulation never works. (Longer form musings on the topic here: Brief History of Manipulation)

For now just know the Shanghai Comp is a disaster but still slightly better than where it was last summer:


Trimming the Tree: Shanghai's Christmas Tree of Death
Trimming the Tree: Shanghai’s Christmas Tree of Death

Sell-Off 101:


As I said, we’ll get to more formal introductions over the next few weeks. Right now we have opportunity in front of us but only if you have a plan better than “Pretend I’m a long-term investor then puke up all my stocks at noon”.

The chances are very low you’re an expect on both China and the Middle East. Don’t trade off what you don’t know. Stick to your stocks. Go through your book. Look at levels.

Here’s a non-comprehensive list of stocks I’m watching into the new year. It’s a shopping list with the prices I’m willing to start putting money to work.

I don’t give advice. I tell you in real time what I’m doing with my real money. In 20 years I’ve never made money selling an open this ugly. I’m looking to buy where noted below. More later…



Apple and Disney: Double Dow Hammer
Apple and Disney: Double Dow Hammer

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  1. tradingnymph

    Can’t today just be my Lottery Bubble Burst day,lol. China Big Money has been fleeing like crazy already so it will be hard to find a fund managers to kill this time around. Heck if you are shorting China in China after last Summer you deserve to be executed, lol. China Govt can’t go out and prop up the economy buying commodities like it did in 2009, they have been bleeding money trying to hold it up by going in and buying over the last couple of years. They will probably come out and say that factories must be closed due to air quality, they have used that trick before. They cut production, allow millions to starve, but they create real demand again, I guess….yep, global melt down, but the bubble had to pop someday. But omg, if this stupid Bubble finally popped on just a lame Markit PMI it would be just so random. You are right, getting the timing on a bubble pop is so crazy random and needs a lottery ticket. BTW Love the artwork.

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  2. traderconfessions

    What time did you drop the acid? Beats watching the red flashy things.

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  3. probucks

    charting on a level I’ve never seen before lol

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