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Auditioning for the Sopranos

vito

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…. the hard way!

Let me caveat what I am implying here by saying first that I fully expect the commodity price of gold to test the late 2011 lows of $1523, and perhaps even undercut them to really get the blood flowing.  I am prepared for that, as I realize the run to $1900 — much like the run to $49 in silver, was too far and too fast, even in a fiat printing, race to the bottom, currency bubble.  But with the $Gold:$HUI index approaching 2008 crisis highs, and the $Gold:$XAU index now reaching an unprecedented height, I am copacetic about holding what I have while becoming poised for a final shake out where I can harvest some of my favorite names once again.

Opportunities abound in high quality names, some of which offer dividends while one waits (I’ve already added AEM, as you know).  There’s no need to stretch on speculation, now, and look for any miners doing business outside the safe zones of Canada and the U.S. and Mexico for some silver plays.  RGLD at these prices is insane, and if you are worried about this pullback, please review that company’s past charts over the last ten years.  All of these stocks — yes, even the quality ones like SLW and AUY — have trod this rocky path before.   In my opinion, these, along with their underlying commodities, preferably held in part in the physical bullion, will help you weather the coming storm in collective currency crisis.

If however, you believe that Ben Bernanke can be the first Federal Reserve Chief to successfully inflate the economy out of a low growth, value inhibiting recession, then perhaps your trust in this new bull is warranted.  In my business, and in the entire economy, I see inflated prices for everything already, so the valuations of the stock market come as no surprise.   As we approach major all time highs in the SPX, I am increasingly skeptical that we can continue without a major correction, just as I was in late 2007-2008, when we saw similar overwrought behavior.  I may miss the final euphoric highs, as I did last time, but I will not end up like the Capo Vito, either.

To be sure, I am not telling you to buy these miners at this bloody juncture.  Even I am holding off for the turn, as I mentioned a few times over the last month.  But I would also counsel you not to short a bull, no matter how wounded.   Bulls are mighty, long lived beasts, and despite their weariness, can leave one singing soprano with little to no advance warning.

Best to you all.

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Oh Shizzle! They’ve Killed RoboCodizzle!

Naw, it’s not that bad, yet,  but Detroit is getting there.   Let’s see what a couple of years of a U.A.W. -driven Chrysler do to it.

But let’s put all that aside and talk about the invisibility of this gold bull, shall we?  I mean, my astute buddies over in the estimable PPT — that Powerful Profit Taj– (have you signed up yet??)… even those gentlemen seem to be walking around that trading room like zombies in the Night of the Living Dead, completely oblivious to the blooming precious metal bull that is erupting around them.  

 Why, just today, one of our estimable patrons sold our featured “pocket rocket” junior miner (see below) as if it were one of CA’s 30 second Viagra Vehicles.   Let me tell you, I was aghast!  Mortified!

But let me assure you, Jacksonians, this odd behaviour (sic) only inures to our collective benefit.   The longer the general public (and let me make clear that the PPT community is NOT the “General Public,” they are at least “English Beat” or barring that “Fine Young Cannibals”– ) remains ignorant of the stealth bull in the precious metal miners, the better it is for our accumulation purposes.   

For, my friends  (come, gather close so I may whisper it to you) — we shall be as the most miserable pinch penny miser on Ebenezer Scrooge’s third shift staff, sparingly sifting our gold and silver specie into dark musty lock boxes while others pass the punch with knowing glee and manly aplomb.  Let them have their japes and their ales and their merry tunes played upon a three stringed fiddle, for we shall act quietly here below, rebuilding the foundation of a hackneyed and eroding financial system for our children and their’s.   It is weary work, but God smiles upon us, and there shall be reward.

That said, I dont’ have much time to dwell on the blindness of the common man, so let’s take a quick look at what they’re missing. 

Remember this chart of the AMEX Gold Bugs Index from a week or so back?

hui_daily1

Pretty nice looking chart, no?  Maybe some of you got long after looking at it?  Maybe some of you ran out and bought some gold stocks the next day, too.   (Heh) 

 Let’s see if that was the smart thing to do, from the perspective of a week later:

hui_dailyii

Well peel me naked and slather me with mornay sauce, whaddaya know?  A breakout just like we expected.   And look at all that free air we’ve got to go.   Hmmmm…  and what was  in that Index again?  Oh yeah, a lot of juicy big cap gold and silver stocks.   

Think maybe that break into the free zone will have some effect on our junior miners?   Heck, let’s see:

ngd_daily 

 This is your golden burrito for tomorrow and for the summer, my friends.  We shall share recipes for further tasty treats as time allows, but for now, know that outside the Jacksonian Core*, I am also purchasing and/or considering the purchase of the following precious metal mining hardies:  [[GG]], [[EGO]], [[AUY]], [[EXK]], [[NGD]], [[NXG]], [[NG]] and of course [[AGQ]].    

Keep in mind also, that there was a pretty bearish candle on the TLT today, boys and girls.  If that bond group and the Ten-Year Starting breaking down, it’ll likely be sayonora for the large part of this market.   Except maybe one part.

Caveat:  If you follow me into the purchase of any of the above named precious metal plays, your children will be stolen by Hobgoblins and traded to dwarves for shiny strips of tin foil and moldy bacon. 

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 ANDE — $22.20  (-2.42%)

GDX — $41.24 (+1.90%)

GLD — $93.85  (+1.73)

IAG – $10.23 (+0..69%) 

MON — $89.29 (-2.77)
 
NRP — $22.57 (-3.42%)

PAAS — $21.19 (+0.95%)

RGLD – $44.90 (+4.98%)

SLV — $14.34  (+1.69%)

SLW — $9.41  (-0.53%)

SSRI — $22.17  (+0.77%)

TBT — $52.43 (+4.96%)

TC — $8.46 (-7.44%)

TSO — $16.53 (-4.40%)

Daily Average: 0.25%

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UPDATE: I sold the calls on TBT again, here @ $53.58.   I think TBT is a bit parabolic here, and TLT looks like it’s ready to bounce.

See caveats above.

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