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Graping Ham!

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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Hanging In There

hang in there
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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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Regarding the Morte D’Arthur

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpA_5a0miWk 450 300]

Quite possibly the “Best Music/Worst Video” combination of all time

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At the end of the Sir Thomas Malory’s Le Morte d’Arthur, the famed British hero King Arthur is transported back to an enchanted island to recover from his mortal wounds after the Battle of Camman  and perhaps be frozen in time for the next time England might need it’s hero king.

Some say he did come back– as Mick Jagger, or more likely the closer kin — Welshman Tom Jones– but that’s only idle speculation.  The important bit to remember here is that enchanted isle was called “Avalon, the Island of Fortune. ”   Some of you who are on The PPT may think sometimes that all of my picks have gone to a magical island to recover from their mortal wounds.  Perhaps they too will reappear someday when Chess or Rage or le Fly are having a bit of a dry spell.

That too may be idle speculation, but in the meantime, there’s a rare earth metal stock that I’ve been accumulating as of late, now to the tune of 30 kilotons, mostly in the low to mid $2 range.  It is of course called Avalon (AVL), and may finally be revealing itself as the font of good fortune I expected after many a day of bouncing around like a malfeasant pinball.

You’ll note in the chart below, that I marked an original consolidation point upon which I thought AVL might rest for a bit after rallying off it’s lows in October, hitting resistance at the old breakdown point (about $4) in early November, and then making a higher low in late November.

As the stock rallied back above that mid-consolidation line in early December, you will recall that I expected it to base there on the consolidation line.  Well that didn’t happen, at least not for very long, and the stock actually began breaking down again.  It eventually broke down below the “higher low” area all the way to the October lows before rallying once again on strong volume.   Note all that progress in the chart below:

Now the question begs — did we just experience a double bottom in these cursed rare earth metals?  If you look at REE, your answer might surely be “hells yes!”  Checking QRM, however, and you might consider the jury still in the anteroom.

What I can see, however, from the above chart is that we have some pretty helpful guideposts available.  If what we’re seeing on the past two high volume days has been the first two legs of the three white soldier candlestick pattern, we’ll see AVL‘s price burst above that consolidation line that so effectively served as our ceiling today.   Since this is a bullish reversal pattern, it should mean continuation after a bit of consolidation, so we might venture some additional buying in that case.

If however we do not get any follow through on the last two days momentum, we know that the consolidation line is acting as resistance.  If we really do have a double bottom pattern here, then we likely will not see another low below the most recent “DB” lows, and you’ll rather have a “rest,” followed by a final break of the resistance.  Given the volume of the last two days, I think that’s the more likely bet.

As an aside… my “Magnificent 7” 2012 picks, including Pick of the Year UPS, as well as AG, COP, DE, MON, PBR and RGLD, are up 5.9% collectively so far this year, and that’s not including dividends, which on some of those can be a significant sweetner.   MON is in the lead as far as top performers, with 12.5%, followed by AG and PBR with 8.5% each.  My two laggards are UPS and COP, with 0.4% and o.1% returns, respectively, thus far this year.  This does not include either stock’s phat dividends of course.

I’m going to be in and out the rest of the week, meeting with buyers, so I may be scarce, but will endeavor to visit at least in the evenings.   My best to you all.

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Welcome 2012 (The Predictions)

Nostradamus Button

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There’s something symmetric about this year’s number “2012” isn’t there?  February 2nd, 12th, 20th and 22nd and December 2nd, 12th, 20th, and 22nd are going to be kind of cool for numbers geeks looking for auspicious dates upon which to get married or receive ass tattoos, perhaps.   Maybe the Mayans will come through with a nice atmosphere sucking asteroid strike on one of those days as well?   That would be special, no?

Anyway, without much further ado, I will set forth some of my predictions for the next 365 days, should we get all of them…

  • The Giants will luck their way into the playoffs thanks to the incompetence of the 2011 NFC East, and because God wants to punish the Ryan Brothers.  They will lose in the first round to the far more deserving Atlanta Flackons (sic).
  • Jerry Jones will publicly admonish, but keep his Ginger Head Coach, Jason Garrett.
  • Rick Santorum will come in second to Mitt Romney in the Iowa Caucuses, and then gain enough momentum to place a distant second to Romney in New Hampshire.
  • Santorum wins in a tight race in South Carolina, prompting Romney to offer him the Veep slot two months prior to the convention in order to lock down the wary evangelical vote.
  • Tim Pawlenty’s head explodes simultaneous with Pat Robertson’s.  Pawlenty for “woulda shoulda coulda”  because he dropped out too early,  and Robertson upon realizing the GOP is running a Mormon-Catholic ticket.
  • The New Orleans Saints win the Superbowl over the New England Patriots in Indianapolis.
  • Indianapolis (Colts) take Andrew Luck with the first round pick and keep Peyton Manning… for now.
  • The U.S. dollar peaks at $81.50 on the DX-Y Index, and proceeds to break down below the April ’08 lows (sub- $72.00) by September.
  • Gold breaks $2,000.00 by April, followed by Silver breaking its old highs in May.
  • With the drop in the dollar, and the prospect of the end of the Obama Error, the market goes dipschit, peaking at 14,000 in the Dow and 1700 on the S&P before everyone realizes we’re running on fumes, and we sell off after the 2012 elections.
  • The 2012 Presidential Election if one of the nastiest on record.  Obama drops his class warfare rhetoric as a losing strategy and takes on the First Victim status.  David Axelrod wheels out mystery women on Mitt Romney and the Veep candidate (presumably, Santorum).
  • Sarah Palin is a lighting rod, playing the black hat for the GOP, pointing out every government takeover and socialist move passed over the last five years (including the last two years of the Bush Administration).  Obamacare will become a millstone on the President’s neck as more unintended consequences arise, and the forced coverage purchase laws are declared un-Constitutional.
  • The Euro stays a viable currency, but Greece, Spain and Portugal drop out of the union.   Italy’s and Ireland’s banking system are saved by British and German investors and stays in the European Union with new manacles.
  • President Obama becomes increasingly disassociated with his re-election and by the time he loses to Romney in November, he will have convinced himself — and his true believers — that he will be a more effective member of the Democrat party out of office.
  • Romney’s acceptance speech will be affable and conciliatory, hoping to mend the divisiveness of the past six years.  Neither the Tea Party nor the Hard Left will be very happy about the results
  • Besides UPS, my best picks of the year will be COP, MON, AG, RGLD, DE and PBR.

And now, the kickoff!   Happy New Year and Geauuuuux Giants!

     

     

     

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    2012 Stock Pick of the Year

    UPS plane

    Feed Me! Nom! Nom! Nom!

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    Again, my friends, I must apologize for my scarceness on these pages.  I know there are times when many of you may plead for my acquittal from this site, as there are times (due to my acute boredom and incipient ADD) I am here commenting like an Algonquin Round Table wag at the height of the Flapper Era.  You must get sick of that.

    But if December is always a rough month in my business, then the last week of December is often the grande chancre (sic) beyond all imaginings.   It’s been ever thus, and it doesn’t matter if I take the week off from work or not (and I do, in the grand tradition of my own bosses past, thereby leveraging my subordinates and allowing me some time with the family), as the former “filter” I thought I had constructed has fallen, by steps, to the technological immediacy of first voicemail, then e-mail, and finally (shudder) Skype.  And to think, this is not even a “capital gains lock-in” year.  Oy.

    To make matter worse, this has also been the traditional week when Mrs. Gint gets together with her Wyrd Sisters and our aggregate families (10 children in all) here in town.  So between entertaining between 18-20 people (depending on when grandparents and great aunts/uncles/cousins arrive) a day/night, and juggling three live deals and one dying one via electronic media, I end up neglecting you, dear reader.  Again, I beg your pardon.

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    For those of you who were thinking that “The Stock of 2012” would be of the “precious” bent, well, good for you.  Valuations are at 52 week minimums about now for most of my favourites and if you are a loyal subscriber to The PPT, you know that most are also reading “oversold!” in a big way as well.

    (Aside: You are crazy if you are not taking advantage of this end of year special for The PPT, as the overall market hybrid alone has been knocking the cover off the ball for those using the patented “Fly Step-in Methodology” for entrance and exit).

    Well, yes, this is a good time to be accumulating SLW, EXK and AG, and GDXJ for the new year, if only for an oversold bounce (if you are feeling chicken).

    But this year’s Pick of the Year is going to be something  you can put away for a longer to near terminal hold.  It’s the tightest ship in the shipping bidness (sic)– United Parcel Service (UPS).  I am biased, as I’m a long time holder of this King of the Transports (and the $TRAN weekly is looking very smart here, btw), but I think that 2012 may be the year that UPS finally “breaks through.”

    Fundamentals are not my bag, so I won’t belabor them, but it is important to note that UPS is the market leader in package transport, with over 15 million pieces moved a year (over double that of rival FDX).  What’s more, despite its unionized work force (Teamsters and Independent Pilots Union), UPS manages to eke out considerably better margins (about 350 basis points better) than the flashy FedEx purple people, most likely due to its entrenched market presence and it’s flexibility in trucking delivery (for example, UPS delivers 1-day, 2-day and regular business deliveries all from the same vehicle route, while FedEx uses wholly different carriers for the different delivery times).

    Of course UPS also offers a fatter dividend.  At 2.80% at current market prices (and I’d like to buy it closer to 3.0% anyway), it is about 220 basis points better than rival FDX.  UPS is a cash cow, with $3.5 billions in free cash to either reinvest in new planes and trucks or to mail back to shareholders.  UPS also uses that cash to buy back shares, which is of course accretive to overall value.

    But UPS is also a great hold for the future, as  well.   Any good wife will tell you… the wave of the future is internet delivery of just about everything.  And if you love AMZN, God bless, they are a great company, but by no means impregnable from a barriers to entry standpoint.  Now, how would you like to try to start up a rival package delivery service that will meet up to Amazon’s exacting demands (not to mention your mother in law’s)?

    See where I’m going with this?

    Last but not least, from a technical standpoint, UPS is again nearing all time highs, which it will eventually have to surmount.   Like one of my better gold picks this year– AUY–, UPS has been attempting to break that “lid” at $75 for while now.   If earl prices remain somewhat accomodating, then I think this may be our year.   Note my weekly, which shows the formation that marks the $TRAN itself… a 13-week/34-week EMA crossover (the weekly “golden cross”) and an attempt at breaking to new highs:

    And my daily chart shows where I’d like to enter… at the 20-day EMA, if possible:

     

    And that is all for now, boys and girls.  I will be back with some predictions for 2012… I hope before the dawning of that auspicious, and seemingly most pre-benighted year.

    Best to you all.

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    Trannies Reach for the Flag

    [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTduy7Qkvk8 450 300]

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    We may get a pullback here, or we may push right through to my target of $1227 on the $SPX.   As usual, the Trannies ($TRAN)  or “Transports” if you want to be “Charles Dow Formal,” will give us an idea of where the market is headed early on.

    The following weekly,  has some good news and some troubling news.  The main positive appears to be that the Trannies, like the previously featured $SPX weekly,  have based on the long term 61.8% golden ratio level.  This is an extremely strong level of support, and we are headed up off of it, and over the 200-week EMA:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    The not so appealing news is that we are beneath the 13-week and 34-week EMAs are above us, and we came up just short of the that first line today.   That may mean we are in for some further consolidation here.

    If that is the case, and we drop back down to that 61.8% fib one last time, I will be loading up on my favorite “Eddie Izzard stock” — UPS.

    As for today, I did nothing, thought I thought about grabbing some more SLW at “end of day.”  I just didn’t get back in time to do so.  Sorry.

    Best to you all.

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