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Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

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Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXt56MB-3vc&ob=av2e 450 300]

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Gold and silver are hanging in there and battling uphill against what looks to be a consolidating, yet hardy dollar.  What’s odd is that other manner of metals are starting to come out of hibernation as well.  Not just the precious, near-precious and the rare earths, but the more industrial metals as well, like molybdenum mining Thompson Creek (TC).   More signs of Bernakean loose cash, like our bubbling crude?  It’s arguable, and it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.

Take our rare earth friend from a couple of days back QRM.  It’s been “on fiah” this week, but in the long range look, we’re not doing much but overcome  a resistance level.  Lookee see at the updated chart below.

 

My target still stands, but I think we’ll get another move to the consolidation line while that RSI works itself off a bit.

With regard to TC, we’ve also had some very nice moves in the last week or so.   But on longer term inspection, it’s really just all about gaining back lost ground… and maybe not for much longer.  Check the weekly:

Note that despite the nice move it’s had coming from below $7, TC still has a way to go to be pronounced in “bull mode” again.  Still, it bears watching after such a move, even if it be for more ursine pecuniary reasons.  I’ll be bailing before that high $8 line, and maybe as early as tomorrow.  I think this is a nice long termer once it breaks resistance, but I may even play it short on this set-up.

I’ll let you know if I can get a break tomorrow…

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34ag4nkSh7Q&NR=1 450 300]

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I had a Sargent Schulz moment this morning and, as a result, ended up selling “nossing.”

As you may recall, we opened kind of weak in the miners, and I decided to hold off til my usual 10-11 am period to dispose of some stocks.   But we began rallying shortly after the open and it looked like gold was trying to hang in there.  Generally, I would not recommend this line of indecision and I would enjoin you, rather,  to “follow your plan” at all times.

Sometime, however, my “gut” tells me that I should stay my hand.  Often times allowing for a little patience, and “not trading” instead of pro-actively trading, I’ve saved myself considerable heartache and regret.

That doesn’t mean I won’t be selling tomorrow, however, even as the dollar drop today tells me it will be difficult for gold and silver to break down any time soon.  What I may be doing instead is selling a portion of some of my fatter gold plays (and maybe some silver if we discontinue our current rebound) and investing in some “fast actin’ Tinactin” recovery stocks, like EEM, QLD, TNA and perhaps even some ERX (sorry Cain!).

I would be loathe to abandon the recovering baser metal plays as well in this snap-back, so I will be inspecting TC, TCK, TIE and even some AVL tomorrow.  Last, take a look at two good beat-downs for some fast flash action — CREE and PBR .  These are two of my old favourites which have fallen considerably OUT of favor.   They may be worth a spin of the wheel.

Best to you all.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQcNiD0Z3MU&feature=related 450 300]

What More Apt Nirvana for an old Depeche Mode fan than to Find this Gem?

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So we did the Twilight Puffin Cruise tonight, and we got that behind us.  The good news is, it appears I no longer get seasick.  I know this because in order to get out to said “Puffin Island” — which is not only replete with aforesaid funny looking black and white and orange birds, but also terns, laughing gulls, seals and all other manner of remote oceanic fauna AND U.S. Oceanographic Institute equipment– we had to brave 12 foot swells that would have set Captain Nemo himself hurling over the gunwhales.

But I didn’t puke, much to my wife’s amazement, and later, suspicion.  You see, I’d always refused to participate on such things as sea cruises due to my notoriously bad stomach which was particularly sensitive to oceanic rolling.  I’ve stuck to my guns on that ever since we met, and it’s worked.   To my chagrin and embarrassment, however, I didn’t even get slightly green in the gills tonight.   Perhaps it was the brisk Maine sea air?  Maybe it’s been the myriad plane flights I’ve taken since I was a late teen (the last time I braved a fishing boat off of Long Island, and puked my guts out)?  I just don’t know.

I’m just hoping this doesn’t mean I have to start taking hideous sea cruises, trapped aboard a behemoth white bathtub with sweaty obese people I’d rather not meet.  Maybe I should have fake-puked?

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I was away most of the day, so I didn’t see much market action.  It seems it didn’t matter, as my port ended up over 1.5% in the black, again.  It’s like these damn PM’s won’t take a rest.  It’s starting to get consternating, actually.   So for some respite, I added today to  TC (Thompson Creek), which has started to diversify into precious metals, but still has a large concentration in molybdenum, which I like for the long cycle.  I now have officially a shitte tonne of that name again after having sold it down egregiously in the mid teens.

I also added to le Monsieur’s current flavor of the month, social net venture capital investor GSVC. Note: this is an “outside the box” investment for me, and I count it in the same diversified category as my much more illiquid private venture capital investments.   In that regard, I would say that if you are not a high net worth investor (with liquid investable assets of one million or more), I would stay away from this play.  Given that this advice will fall on deaf ears for most of the cowboys that attend this site, I would at least implore that you play this one small.  I am fully aware that I could lose 50% of this play in the blink of an  eye.  You should be prepared for that as well, or leave off completely.

Best to you all from swimmable Maine.

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I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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And Yes, Rex Grossman Was Screwed, Too
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Didn’t take long for the first of my semi-facetious predictions to fail did it?  Well it did, and my Giants, despite winning today over a semi-revitalied Rex Grossman-led Redskin team, were drubbed out of the playoffs by the Green Bay Fudge Packers, who beat them this week and dah Bears (see above) today.

There’s nothing like just missing the playoffs to make for the worst of all possible worlds.   Despite a 10-6 record, my team will be on the sofa next weekend, and — adding insult to injury — will likely keep the Angry Leprechaun, Tom Coughlin and his offensive (in the literal sense) coordinator, Captain Kangaroo Kevin Gilbride in the driver’s seat for at least another year.   The final coup de grace — we’ll get a crappy “playoff level” draft pick because there will be playoff teams that have worse records picking behind us. 

I guess I will become a Jet fan for the few short weeks for it to take them to snuffed out by Eli’s older brother or some similar such ignonimy.  Gosh knows there’s no one in the NFC honorable enough to root for, and I am beginning to really despise the Packers, I’ll have you know.

But never as much as Dawg Killah and the Eagles, no fear.

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As for me, I ended the year up a gigantaload.  So much so, compared to year end 2009, that you’d probably not even believe me, so I won’t boast about it.  Suffice it to say that I was still piling on win in huge amounts even on the last day of the year, despite being about 40% hedged and having about 30% in cash.   Ironically, my largest single gain on December 31st was Monsieur’s FTK, which I do believe I shall keep for a while, ovah heah.

I also believe AVL — the old Avalon Metals now on the Amex Exchange — will continue to shine it’s bizarre functional-if-rare metallic lights on my precious laden portfolio.   I will have more to say on the rare earths as we move forward– I am digging diligently as you read this…

Without question silver will continue to shine, and SLW, PAAS, SSRI, MVG, SVM, CDE, HL, and yes EXK will continue to shine.   I will let you know when I will begin piling in on a leveraged basis soon enough.  I think the dollar remains on the edge of the knife (it is rallying as I type this), but until it breaks, I will remain positioned as I am.

We will also look into the ags, and I think it is time to re-recognize the farmer Jacksonians — ANDE and MON again, as strong picks going forward.  TC and TCK, the molybdenum brothers, should also perform here.

I haven’t posted the Jacksons as of late, but if you were to have held them since this blog’s inception (May 1st, 2009), you’d be up 125% right now, and that’s with a negative return on both MON and TBT, both of which I urge you to continue to accumulate this year.  

Stick with me kid, we are going places in 2011….

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