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Sending Pitino Back To Brooklyn

fie

 Whattayou tawkin’ about? I only had fie’ vodkas!

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Actually, Rick Pitino, disgraced coach of the Louisville Cardinals basketball team, was born in Manhattan and ended up going to high school at St. Dominic’s in Oyster Bay, Long Island (high cotton).  In other words, he’s not the gomatta (sic)- slinging gangster he’s made himself out to be these last ten years in Louisville, bulgy eyes and dark double-breasted suits aside.  He’s actually kind of soft to tell the truth.

How else can anyone explain a 31-point Cardinal loss to the crappy Providence Friars, a team from a city some claim is in Rhode  Island, which is allegedly a member of the Union wedged into New England somewhere.  Rumor is that the Friars are not named after the chicken tenders crew at Popeyes at all, but in fact a clerical sect known for celibacy, stinky beer and infrequent group bathing.  I’m awaiting confirmation and will get back to you when my investigators complete their report.

In any case, I’m tired of it.   In seeking some resolution, I’ve assembled a crew of recently released minor felons who will accost Rick at the Standiford Field Airport and bundle him into a black limousine headed for Bushwick, Brooklyn.   Upon arrival, Rick will be stripped down to his wife beater tee and skivvies and instructed not to return until he’s brought back a set of rabbit ear antennae from the local Robert P. Moses housing project.

Rick needs to get his “mojo” back, and  find that inner hard ass that will terrify these young men into perfoming on the hard court like a Pitino team of old.  I’m only doing what I can in the most exigent and dire of circumstances.

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I will be looking to lighten up tomorrow on some of these positions that are up so far in this year.   The dollar is rebounding as I type, and while gold and silver are staying upright, I think they are due for a pullback and I will therefore trim accordingly.   I suggest you set tight stops on ANY green action tomorrow.  3-5%, tops.

My best to you.

 

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You’re Doing It Wrong

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6MMW-NJmt8&feature=related 450 300]

Sublime Christmas Beauty

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Mid-month Christmas ruminations…

I’ve always been a big fan of the Christmas season*, even if that appreciation has morphed from that typical childhood manic Santa-Greed, to that middling “purchasing for others” egotistic patronage phase, and finally now onto the “enjoying the little ones’ joy” segment.  For what it’s worth, this last bit has been the best.  You wish they could stay small forever, but even into their teens, the kids are a treat on Christmas morning and throughout the holiday season.

But as I’ve gotten older I’ve also realized that Christmas is about more than rejoicing with my immediate family and friends, it’s about attending to one’s community as well.  I like to think of the season as a kernel to build upon for the new year — and as a reminder of what the heck we’re doing here in the first place.

Christmas is a gentle ego aide —  that helps me remember we are not here to build wealth or careers or even organizations — or at least we are not here to strive for those goals for their own sake.  We are here to serve one another, to serve the least and even the greatest if that is the call.

I was therefore dismayed to hear an older gentlemen (50’s) the other day say he “was just about Christmas’ed out,” (this was December 10th).  I first thought to myself, “how cynical,” but then upon further reflection I realized this was probably an indication of seasonal depression, most likely caused by a prematurely arrested Concept of Christmas.   If one saw each Christmas as a wholly commercial exercise, bracketed by obligatory holiday parties and regimented relational visits, I could see that getting rather tiresome as one approached a half century on this planet.

But instead, if one could see Christmas as a challenge… or even as an annual quest to find the right person, group or community to serve for the season, and perhaps even for the new year, then Christmas becomes something else, something even more wonderful than the joyous mornings of our wrapping paper youth.   And I’m not just talking about the quotidian forms of charity, although those are certainly important and necessary.  I’m talking about reaching out to that Bob Cratchit in your life if  you are a boss, or that Ebenezer Scrooge if you are an employee.

Someone needs you, right now.   What better time to take that excuse to reach out, and to offer a hand — even anonymously– to those in need of a friend or a patron? Take this Season and make it special, and carry that extra joy with you into the new year and onto the next.    I promise you will never be “Christmased out” again.

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*(Please be assured that when I mention “Christmas” as the season, I recognize that the December Holiday Period is a time of joy and familial reflection for many cultures and faiths, just as the New Year is a time for renewal for us all.  I believe the prescription mentioned above is a fitting one for all men and women of good will, not matter their affiliation, or lack thereof. )

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As of this writing, the dollar is rallying again, and flirting with that $79-$80 range that has been been our “top” since last January.   All I can do is wait and see if Santa is going to be good to the little PM trader girls and boys.  If we breach our late November highs, then I will be shaving down to more cash, but until then, I will be eating samiches (sic), and thinking about bell ringing.

My best to you all.

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Just Shaddap

Giants Pack
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The Giants let another one slip between their fingers, to the hated Cheeseheads, no less, despite giving them quite the scare for perhaps the first time this season.   Moral victories, however, count for scheissola in this part of the season.  

That said, at least the Crackboys also lost — inexplicably — to the Arizona Cardinals, who I believe are working with a tenth string QB out of Mail-it-In State.    We play them next week and then again two weeks after that and if we can’t beat those sad sacks, well — it’s time for head coach Tom Coughlin and his trusty offensive coordinator Captain Kangaroo Gilbride, to pack their bags and just GO.

But I don’t want to hear a damn word from any of ye’s (sic) about the Giants’ recent four game collapse.  I especially don’t want to hear about how great the Pack, or that long haired narcissist Clay Matthews are.   What the hell is wrong with this guy anyway?  He’s like a woman with that shit.  Why is it so damn greasy the whole game?  Does he throw a bunch of conditioner in there so it’s nice and greezy (sic), so no one can grab him by it? 

Just get a haircut, Laughing Boy.

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Right now the dollar is struggling to re-assert itself despite it’s being leveraged against every shit currency in the free world.  Despite all that, currency traders are wising up and beginning to bid the “savings plays” up again, chief among them the yen.    So, even as the dipshits at  S&P do the Fed’s bidding by trying to scare the German’s pants brown, the dollar still struggles to even achieve today’s earlier highs

Curious, no?

You won’t see me running about, flibberty-gibbet style, sorry.  I just don’t have the time for it.   I’ll stay in the gold and silver plays I limned for you last week, thanks very much.  I still own some GSVC as well, btw, and even some WNR (the calls I wrote against them twice have all expired, too).  

I really hate to say “I’m with Teahouse,” but at least it’s not like I’m sitting on the fans’ side at Foxboro or going door to door for Ketchup Usurper John Kerry, right?

My best to you all.

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Midas is My Bitch

midas
Sit, Midas, Stay!
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I was away on business in outer Lobos Lobovia today (somewhere in the untracked wilds of the Midwest), when I received a cell phone text from my dog, Midas (above).   She’s been trained to faithfully call me whenever I’m away from the screen and there’s a significant opportunity in the precious metals… especially the miners.   She’s to do this no matter how busy I am, and mein gott have I been busy.   Still, she has her training… so…

“Roof!” She said, “roof, urf, roof!”   Loosely translated, this meant “buy MVG,” but that’s of little consequence when you could have bought anything in the PM sector today (save maybe PAAS) and you’d have made a crop of coin.  So who says dogs are smart, right?

Anyway, MVG was up 6% including after hours today.  AAU was up 12.7% today.  Guess what wasn’t up so much today?  If you said “BAA” you get a prize.  It was flat most of the day, only to trade up a shade under 3% in after hours.   Can you guess what I’m going to be buying tomorrow, time allowing?

My dog Midas knows.

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Again, my apologies for being away from you, friends.  It’s truly been one of the busiest weeks I’ve had since I was a gruntling analyst fresh out of my white shoe training program.  And shit, it’s only Wednesday.

That news in itself should be somewhat indicative to you.  Money is moving people, on both sides of the balance sheet.

Given this pace, I may not even make it to the weekend.   So if I don’t, let me share my outlook.  I think we should be aware we could be on the cusp of a cataclysmic move in the PM’s.   The dollar has broken that support at $76, and as I type it’s at $75.89 on the index.   Gold has responded, and is above $1700 again.  I think we’re on the way back up, and am cautiously adding to my piles as time allows.

Silver’s been something of a laggard, but I may take advantage of that by adding to my AG and EXK tomorrow.  If my readings are correct, we’ve still a ways to go in those names.   I may even indulge in some AGQ.  Juniors in the gold sector should also be considered.  Grab GDXJ if you don’t want to choose.   Take care, and I will try and drop in on you tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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Quoth the Dollar, “Nevermore”

raven

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I’m going to be out an about quite a bit this coming week and not even back in the office until Wednesday.  I’m sorry, I can’t help it if much of the Free World is determined to secure my services in the the final months of 2011 (it’s beginning to give me the willies, actually), but there it is.  People are agitated.  I– to put it clinically–  am an Expediter.  I specialize in expediting Agitations.

And there it is.

Luckily for you, the tenor of my argument hasn’t changed much, despite the rollicking good time the market gave us for OpEx.   Isn’t it odd how during bearish-leaning periods, we get bullish OpEx days, and then the exact opposite during bullish leaning periods?  Maybe I’m being overly anecdotal, like Jay Nordlinger on especially strong tea.    This is the feeling I’m getting in my gut, however, and its a feeling that shouldn’t be ignored.

Why?  Because I got the same feeling around this time in 2007, just before the SHTF… or to be more concise, just before the SHTF in slow motion for about a year, crescendoing at year end of 2008.

I’m getting that itchy feeling again.  And here’s the deal, the dollar could be, or could not be confirming that feeling.  How’s that for precision, eh?   Well when you look at my daily dollar chart, you’ll understand the provenance of my thinking:

See how oversold we are on the dollar at this point?  We really should bounce at that $76 line, maybe after a day or two.   It makes all the sense in the world.   But then there’s the fact that we’ve busted through the 200-day EMA, and in an almost “broken parabola” fashion.  It wouldn’t shock me to see us test the lows given the sharpness of that decline.

It doesn’t make much sense to me… the EURO should be crashing, not the dollar.  But who knows what’s really happening.  For all we know Bernanke is running the presses to wallpaper Angela Merkel’s boudoir even as Europe talks about QE3’ing their own combined fiat experiment.   Much is misdirection in the global race to devalue one’s currency, and I wouldn’t trust one of these spotted badgers as far as I could smell them.

So let’s not play the “speculation” game, but rather the “observation” one.  Let’s see if we get that expected bounce off $76 and let’s see if it lasts.   If it looks like the dollar will rise again, I will likely get out of what little I’ve left on the PM side, except for some very thin core positions, and I might even dabble in the opposite of QLD, our old friend QID, and of course, Mr. Skiffles.

But for now, the dollar still plummets, so let’s be nimble and continue to gather that grain for the winter.  Soon it will be time to sell grain, however, as there will be many hungry locusts knocking at the door.

Best to you all, I will try to check in on you as best I can.

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Frankie Has A Message (Updated)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WZ33w3B8Hw&feature=related 450 300]

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I hope you took Frankie’s advice last night.  When I went to bed last evening (I had an exhausting day), there were enough people wandering the iBankCoin desert wearing hairshirts and declaring the coming of Armegeddon that I thought I’d wandered into a particularly ascetic strain of the Stinkify Wall Street protest movement. 

But I put my faith in the machinations of the Great Machine — The PPT, more than I do the easily beclouded emotions of my fellow piker traders.  You see the Great Machine runs on blood of cold nanobytes and young trader stem cells.  It cares not for your fears and your worries any more than it feels like patting you on the back in your more elated or expansive periods. 

It feels nothing but the data.  And what’s curious about yesterday’s readings was not that we came off over “overbought” levels, but that The PPT “leveled off” at a certain point yesterday, and held fast over a period of increasing trader nervousness here and across the internets.   It certainly gained my attention.  Were you watching?

And that fastness in the mind of the Machine was telling us something.  Just as Timmah and his group of Eterno-Bears were rubbing their fat little paws together in anticipation of a plump pic-a-nic basket, the titanium hand of The PPT was wheeling back to strike a sharp blow to their tender snouts.  

Not so fast, little Bears… did you think it was really going to be this easy?

And truthfully, if we look at our long term signals, there’s not a lot indicating much of a correction in store.   For example, you think the Big Boys maybe had an idea about what GOOG was going to do?   Have a look at the $NDX weekly for a clue… It’s launched this week off both up-turning primary EMA’s, the 13 and the 34 week exponential moving averages.  It’s also got a lot of room to go on teh RSI and slow stochastics before it’s overbought. 

When the techs are that lively, it’s often a sign that the bull is not done goring his fat brother bear.   Perhaps this weekend I will extrapolate, if you so desire.

In the meantime, I still hold one last third of my QLD position, which I may have been too hasty to sell (but I had a plan to sell at $86, and one must stick to one’s plan, no?).  I also still hold a  small postition in SKF, which I will hold to as a hedge, through the rest of this roller coaster ride.

I also kept all my gold and silver positions, as they showed similar resiliance — that stickiness — that The PPT showed yesterday.   Also PPT related, the silver ETF went “oversold” ridiculously early yesterday.  That often portends a shallowness in the market that will soon be reversed.

Pay attention to sentiment, folks, but above all consult The Machine in these bear-colored times.   It will guide your hand and let you sleep at night.

Best to you all.

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