Sit, Midas, Stay!
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I was away on business in outer Lobos Lobovia today (somewhere in the untracked wilds of the Midwest), when I received a cell phone text from my dog, Midas (above).   She’s been trained to faithfully call me whenever I’m away from the screen and there’s a significant opportunity in the precious metals… especially the miners.   She’s to do this no matter how busy I am, and mein gott have I been busy.   Still, she has her training… so…

“Roof!” She said, “roof, urf, roof!”   Loosely translated, this meant “buy MVG,” but that’s of little consequence when you could have bought anything in the PM sector today (save maybe PAAS) and you’d have made a crop of coin.  So who says dogs are smart, right?

Anyway, MVG was up 6% including after hours today.  AAU was up 12.7% today.  Guess what wasn’t up so much today?  If you said “BAA” you get a prize.  It was flat most of the day, only to trade up a shade under 3% in after hours.   Can you guess what I’m going to be buying tomorrow, time allowing?

My dog Midas knows.

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Again, my apologies for being away from you, friends.  It’s truly been one of the busiest weeks I’ve had since I was a gruntling analyst fresh out of my white shoe training program.  And shit, it’s only Wednesday.

That news in itself should be somewhat indicative to you.  Money is moving people, on both sides of the balance sheet.

Given this pace, I may not even make it to the weekend.   So if I don’t, let me share my outlook.  I think we should be aware we could be on the cusp of a cataclysmic move in the PM’s.   The dollar has broken that support at $76, and as I type it’s at $75.89 on the index.   Gold has responded, and is above $1700 again.  I think we’re on the way back up, and am cautiously adding to my piles as time allows.

Silver’s been something of a laggard, but I may take advantage of that by adding to my AG and EXK tomorrow.  If my readings are correct, we’ve still a ways to go in those names.   I may even indulge in some AGQ.  Juniors in the gold sector should also be considered.  Grab GDXJ if you don’t want to choose.   Take care, and I will try and drop in on you tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WZ33w3B8Hw&feature=related 450 300]

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I hope you took Frankie’s advice last night.  When I went to bed last evening (I had an exhausting day), there were enough people wandering the iBankCoin desert wearing hairshirts and declaring the coming of Armegeddon that I thought I’d wandered into a particularly ascetic strain of the Stinkify Wall Street protest movement. 

But I put my faith in the machinations of the Great Machine — The PPT, more than I do the easily beclouded emotions of my fellow piker traders.  You see the Great Machine runs on blood of cold nanobytes and young trader stem cells.  It cares not for your fears and your worries any more than it feels like patting you on the back in your more elated or expansive periods. 

It feels nothing but the data.  And what’s curious about yesterday’s readings was not that we came off over “overbought” levels, but that The PPT “leveled off” at a certain point yesterday, and held fast over a period of increasing trader nervousness here and across the internets.   It certainly gained my attention.  Were you watching?

And that fastness in the mind of the Machine was telling us something.  Just as Timmah and his group of Eterno-Bears were rubbing their fat little paws together in anticipation of a plump pic-a-nic basket, the titanium hand of The PPT was wheeling back to strike a sharp blow to their tender snouts.  

Not so fast, little Bears… did you think it was really going to be this easy?

And truthfully, if we look at our long term signals, there’s not a lot indicating much of a correction in store.   For example, you think the Big Boys maybe had an idea about what GOOG was going to do?   Have a look at the $NDX weekly for a clue… It’s launched this week off both up-turning primary EMA’s, the 13 and the 34 week exponential moving averages.  It’s also got a lot of room to go on teh RSI and slow stochastics before it’s overbought. 

When the techs are that lively, it’s often a sign that the bull is not done goring his fat brother bear.   Perhaps this weekend I will extrapolate, if you so desire.

In the meantime, I still hold one last third of my QLD position, which I may have been too hasty to sell (but I had a plan to sell at $86, and one must stick to one’s plan, no?).  I also still hold a  small postition in SKF, which I will hold to as a hedge, through the rest of this roller coaster ride.

I also kept all my gold and silver positions, as they showed similar resiliance — that stickiness — that The PPT showed yesterday.   Also PPT related, the silver ETF went “oversold” ridiculously early yesterday.  That often portends a shallowness in the market that will soon be reversed.

Pay attention to sentiment, folks, but above all consult The Machine in these bear-colored times.   It will guide your hand and let you sleep at night.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8QrOAghZ0 450 300]

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I started selling some of my QLD horde today, only to turn around and plow those winnings into more AG, SLW and EXK.

Why silver?  Mostly because the happy silver mining family was bludgeoned like a prize veal on the night before the St. Anthony Festival these last few weeks, and I like the reversion to the mean theory — no matter how temporary that reversion might be.

You know I started accumulating the PM ETF’s,  GDX, GDXJ and SIL last week in order to capture some of the rebound that I saw coming from that sector.  Well this week I will concentrate more on individual names like the above in silver and RGLD, AUY and ANV in the gold mining sector.  I might also dabble in those insane brothers XG and XRA.

Just to give you an example of what I’m seeing here, and why I think there’s still a lot of room in these PM names, here’s my markup of the EXK weekly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Note how last week the price bounced off the long term trend line only to leave that long tail in a hammer?  And note also how most of the stochastics are headed north once again?  I am seeing that in a lot of these names.   Again, it can all change on a dime in no time, and believe me, I will be ahead of you, elbowing you in the chin as I run for the exits if it does.   But right now, the dollar is on our side, and the momentum is coming back to these names.

Let’s have some fun while we wait for the deluge, shall we?

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

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The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

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Cocktail Party Acts of Levitation Aside, You Suck

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… So this won’t be long.

My damn Junkees left 423 guys on base tonight, mostly because they just didn’t feel like running them very hard.  They weren’t very stellar in the field, either, despite being at home.

Oh yeah, and I really, really dislike A-Roid.

I don’t care how damn good he is in the regular season, the guy is a choker.  Plain and simple.  You gotta perform on the big stage, Gayroid, or you’re nothing to me.  Your 600 home runs mean so much cow shit.  Go screw.

You suck.

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There, that is that.   As for today, I’m disappointed about that too.

You see I tried to get cute.  I went and bot 10k shares of EXK and 8k shares of AG at middle of the day prices.   Then I doubled my order at a substantial discount to my market order.   I did the same for AVL.   I got zero AVL as a result and not filled on my second half of the other two.  I have a feeling that will cost me in the morning.

Meanwhile, I kept my QLD and the GDX and GDXJ that I bought yesterday.

That is all.   I leave you now, grumbling into the night.

Go (NY Football) Giants.

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Addenda:  I’m pretty damn disappointed in this guy too (hat tip to DGM) :

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfMjbS0oWrE 450 300]

(If you squint, he looks like Arod)

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA 450 300]

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Celebrate a great life, never mourn it.

A life valued, oddly perhaps at first, but valued.

A child welcomed, an adventure claimed, a pathway blazed.

All because a young mother made a choice.  A great one, that– it turns out– has benefited all humanity.

Almost ironic how a man like this can talk about “connecting the dots,” and “destiny” and “karma.”

A boy adopted.

Like Larry Ellison, John Lennon, Charles Dickens, Nelson Mandela… and many others...

56 years of precious, valuable and shared life.

Celebrate.

R.I.P. — and thanks, Steve Jobs.

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UPDATE:  I bot QLD (large), early yesterday and GDX and GDXJ (medium) right before the close last night.

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