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You guys know me by now, I hope.  Therefore, you are well aware that I am about as conservative a person as you are going to meet, this side of the ossified gentlemen mouldering away in the leather chairs of the University Club, NYC.  And with some quirkly exceptions, I’d say that conservatism marries both economic and social philosophies. I am pro-life for instance (both ways).

Despite all that, and despite my pro-life advocacy, I must join the growing multitudes calling for the resignation of this confused individual, Todd Akin. Truth be told, I was not really following this Missouri race until the bizarre controversy stemming from this man’s odd analysis of rape (“legitimate” or otherwise!) and pregnancy bubbled up this past Monday evening. You can read more about it in the attached article.

What I do know about Missouri is that Clair McCaskill was/is not well loved, as I’ve friends in various parts of Missouri, including St. Louis and some of the more rural areas. As far as the recent well contested primary (11 bidders!), however, I knew nothing.

I’ve since learned that Akin rose above the horde to win narrowly in the primaries, with the help of statist religous Huckster Mike Huckabee. There are few “Republicans” I loathe more than Huckster, who mingles self-righteous smarm with typical statist RINO “do gooding,” courtesy of the taxpayer’s dime. The fact that Akin is associated with Huckster immediately puts him in the negative column for me, no matter what his dopey views on pregnancy via rape. Moreover, his views, whether misstated or not, do nothing but cast a very serious position off the moral high ground. For that alone he should be interred in the “foot in mouth” Hall of Fame, and summarily dumped. Missouri deserves better than McCaskill for sure, but they do not deserve this dope.
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On the matter of Peter Thiel, the FaceBook Sour Grapes and the Cramer Clown Show… I will say merely this:

Peter Thiel took considerable risk by pledging a substantial amount of his (then) small VC fund to the then little-known idea of “the Facebook,” which was at the time being dwarfed by MySpace and other rivals. He waited some five years to get liquid on that investment, which for a VC is typical-to-lengthy. Almost 100% of VC’s have a business model that states “sell at the IPO” as a matter of fiduciuary duty (they are not in the stock asset managment business but the new venture business). That Thiel did what he told his investors he would do when he raised his funds, thereby fulfilling his duty to them is quotidian. That Facebook was valued at a very high multiple of current (and future!) earnings was a combination of cultural knowledge and market hype. There is no arguing these facts, this side of logic and sanguinity.

There has been some talk that perhaps Thiel should give up his board seat as he has released his investors from their Facebook venture investment (they are of course free to buy the company on the open market, but that’s not venture investing). I might agree with this, given Thiel’s only remaining investment is his own, at 5.6 million shares (oh, you missed that piece in all the invective, did you?). That said, he was an original investor in the company, so the board may value his perspective and advice at this point. Whatever the end, however, it is certainly a board decision as to whether Thiel remains or not. Thus far, he has conducted himself rationally and like a gentleman, all noxious statements by Daytrade Cramer aside.
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This temporary pullback in the miners is a mere bag of shells. I am carrying on with my trades as described.

Good day, sirs.
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Avast Mateys! It’s time to strike the main sail and deploy the twin outboard Mercuries, as Her Majesty’s Treasure Frigate, The H.M.S. Dollar-Dollar Bill, is taking on water and listing amidships!  Now is out time to pounce, Jag-you-are (sic) – style.

As I type, the dollar has broken below the crucial $82.00 “line o’ death” it’s been flirting with this last month, and fighting against even as all the stochastics began to show divergences marking an imminent change.  I think that change is here, and provided we finish the day below $82.00 (we are at $81.94 right now), I think we should be clear to fly until at least $80.70, which is the long term 50% fibonacci.  I do believe we should bounce then, just in time for a little September flattening while the dollar gets ready for a test of the 38.2% fib line down  below $79.00.   That should coincide with some nice seasonality for the precious, which always seems to be great offerings for the Turkey Gods, come November.

As I mentioned yesterday, I pushed the risk pedal with some AGQ, as silver was moving first.  However, I think today is gold’s catch up day, so if you want to add to your NUGT for a brief period, I wouldn’t gainsay that additional leverage.  As always, I recommend small and cautious with these instruments.  If you are seeking less “muss & fuss,” GDXJ is probably our most oversold ETF, as it got cranked the hardest in the recent “junior miner recession” this Spring.  It’s relatively overbought in the near term, but nonetheless a good bet to test it’s 200-day EMA here ($23.40) before pulling back.

A more speculative play is AUQ, which got trounced recently on bad numbers, but appears to be forming an island bottom on the daily chart, and has almost a full dollar gap to fill north of here.  Of course, the landscape is littered with these plays, and some of far higher quality.   Keep an eye on the 200-day EMA of gold bull index $HUI for a near-term guide.  It’s next resistance (top right of a daily cup) coincides with that 200-day mark, at about $465, and that should provide the near term stand by.

Happy near-term buccaneering to you all, me mateys!

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The other night I saw the Fly
And Jeremy and Chuck Am I.
Chess and Wine and Gappy Too
(Might sound like three, but only two)
Woodshedder bedecked in denim
Scotty with lovely wife, God bless’im

Cain Thaler came on wheelchair made
of Bamboo- wire and cut jade
Ancient even past his years
He breathed blue smoke and shed dry tears
For Detroit his home benighted so
By corrupt gov’t and cold grey snow

Fly made toasts to kith and kin
Whilst Jemmy’s stomach near augured in.
Gapp and Chuck, wolfish rakes
Assessed the women (even Jake’s)
Yet stayed their hands and played the part
Of gentlemen, with Gentle Heart

RC of course, the Silent Giant
Hove to the table, his palette pliant
Without his better half’s restraint
Drew ample beverage, drew ample plate.

One party missing, and well missed
The liberal heart, whom Nature kissed
No Cronkite and no Greenman showed
To plead ‘gainst MONstah, and for “O.”

Alas!

Progenic duty stayed the bars
(And further frolics with cigars)
Sent “the Jakes” home by one AM
Whilst Friends of Fly (and Chess and Jem)
Went forth with blessings from us both
For IBC, for friends and “Growth.”

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Someone claimed I haven’t posted in two months! Calumny!
It’s been a mere one month. It’s only seemed like two in our accelerated world. Things have slowed, or blowed, or both, and I won’t bore you with details, but I should be able to post somewhat more often, at least in August.

Did I mention I had to cut my vacation short and come home three days early? Yeah, I know, boo hoo, at least I have a job, right? What right have I to complain when this is the lot I’ve chosen? Right. None.

Meanwhile, while I’ve been resting my keyboard, the silver markets have begun to show signs of life again. If you are not in EXK and AG, you’ve still got time, but probably not a tonne of it. Likewise SLW which had a nice move today. Dollars to donuts the lesser bodies like MVG and SSRI will also begin to rise alongside the champions. Like usual, the real moves will be made in the Fall for those stocks, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt you to start accumulating now. As usual, SIL is a great “combinator” if you don’t want to agonize over the usual suspects.

Gold stocks have become almost too annoying to mess with on the individual side, so outside of RGLD, and maybe AUY, I am not going to recommend you dabble in anything but the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ.

Before you ask, yes, I still own the rare earths (QRM and AVL, especially), despite their declines. I just add more on whims. What the hell, they are popcorn cheap and I am quite certain they will Bela Lugosi when the dollar heads down one more time this coming Election Season.

What’s got me in “near term buy” mode however, are a couple of stocks I’ve owned for a while that are showing nice promise right now. One is nat gas former superstar ECA, which looks beautiful, especially on a pullback to the $21.00 range. Another is PSX, which I “inherited” when it spun off of COP, back in April (COP being one of the Samurai Seven along with fat dividend gold stock AEM, which has also risen from the grave as of late). And along with PSX, I will take some HFC, another refiner. I like them both at $38 if you are looking for a buy range.

I will endeavor to be more faithful to you my friends. The spirit is always willing, as you know… the flesh? Well…

Slainte.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fSEjlLQcRY 450 300]

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The dollar’s off 70 cents as I type this, down below $82 again to a low we haven’t seen since mine and the Fly’s birthday on the 25th of last month.  That “chuffing” sound you hear is Ben Bernanke’s magical reverse vacuum blowing hundred dollar bills at Spain by way of behind the scenes European central bank bailout transfers.  $125 billion you say? It’s a mere bag of shells when one can print up one’s own constantly deflating sovereign currency in a zirp atmosphere.  Isn’t this fun?  Why didn’t Japan think of this??

Anyone else getting the hard stuff while it’s cheap?  Take a look at my two “T’s” — TKC and recently murdered TC for a flyer.  Of course I still love BAA, but ANV is looking very tasty and has RGLD ever really disappointed you?  On the silver side, it’s broken record time again… AG, EXK and SLW remain the nobles.  PAAS for a flyer. For those with less time, GDXJ and SIL are the ETF plays for now.

I had one of the worst Friday’s in my career this past week, dealing with a very large dollar client issue that one would have to hear to believe.  One thing I can say about my industry, there’s hardly ever a dull moment.  You guys think trading stocks is a bitch?  Try something more illiquid next time…

Best to you all.

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What’s that sound, you say? Those of you with extremely sensitive hearing probably heard a dog whistle this morning, after the absolutely execrable unemployment numbers came out. Given that the increase in unemployment, the lack of job growth and the near-frozen economic capability of our scared scat-less private sector leaves the Powers that Be with very little in the Hope and Change department, the only remaining response is a toot on the dog whistle.

And who’s that St. Bernard that’s come-a-trotting with a big barrel of printer’s ink secured beneath his hairy jowls? Why that’s St. Ben-ard Bernake!   He knows that there’s no FacePlant Book rally coming to secure the 2012 elections and therefore his place on the Iron Throne of Westeros.  So the only other plan to help us out here is to pump the press and let the liquidity flow.  Heck, what are you going to do, anyway? Buy Euros??

No, but there’s always RGLD, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SLW, EXK, AG, ANV, IAG, and of course, BAA.  Tons of other “beaten downs” as well that will make someone a lot of money, but as you know, my time here is limited.

Go out there and feast.  It’s Printing Day.

Best to you all.

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Ladies and Germs I love it when my pain becomes your gain, and thanks to my “way too early” entry back into the precious metal miner market with both hands full of ham, you more cautious readers will have the opportunity to enter into the severely beaten-into-disability gold and silver miner market, which we’ve always characterized (lovingly) as Baby $HUI. One can best participate broadly in this market using GDX and SIL (and to a lesser more risky extent, GDXJ).

I am hoping the following chart will show up, as I am posting it on the rogue computer, but if not I encourage you to look at the twelve year monthly chart for $HUI, which limns the extent of this current bull in both gold and gold miners:

Note how we are oversold to an extent not seen since the beginning of this very bull… in fact, to an extent even deeper than in late 2008! That’s pretty incredible folks and indicates a strong ability to bounce hard here, provided that long term bull line holds.

Now I do expect we’ll get a pullback and maybe even two from this strong resurgance, as the various bottom scrapers and chicken littles bail with a quick profit, so be cautious. Go small here in this first wave, no matter how tempted you may be to go all in. You should have plenty of opportunity, all the way to the $500 mark and maybe even $520 on the index.

Best of luck and fortune to you all.

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