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A Lesson in Econ 101

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc 450 300]

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Apparently, crack U.S. Special Forces stumbled on JP Morgan’s “lost tonnes” of silver bars whilst cashing in our un-paid receivable with now soundly-dead Osama Bin Hydin’.  This seems the only plausible explanation of the coincident 10% drop in the price of silver last night right as the news of Osama’s involuntary cranial ventilation was breaking. 

Kudo’s to President Barack, by the way, who appears to have begun smoking some of that Bushitlerian war-monger crack and can’t seem to get enough of the rock.   In other stunning news, the vicious San Franciscite anti-war harridans of Code Pink have summarily renamed themselves “Code Ah, It’s Okay,” while long respected gold star mother media queen Cindy Sheehan has unveiled a new website in honor of her President’s recent actions called “If-It’s-Brown-Shoot-It-Down.com.”

Whether or not PETA President Ingrid Newkirk’s newly sponsored Western Kentucky Squirrel Hunt/Democrat Fund Raiser and the Sierra Club’s latest bumper sticker “Yellowstone is for Coal Mining” are further evidence of a sea change in liberal sentiment has yet to be determined.

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Despite silver’s no Chinaman low volume sell-off last night, it appears there’s little changed in the direction of the dollar.  What’s more, it looks like gold isn’t even taking the temporary detour that earl, the CRB and silver took last night upon news of Osama’s fatal lobotomy. 

Now I’ve told you about silver being waaaay over it’s 200-day EMA, and that’s why we were switching our focus to gold for now.   This sell-off, however, may give  you an opportunity to play a couple of broken silver miners.  You know I like SLW and EXK the best (both of whom look to be off at least 5% in pre-market), but I also think AG is “catchable” here, (I still have low bids in on that one) and even AGQ may be a play, if an extremely short term one.   Only mess with that last if you are determined to watch it, because it should be swinging big here this week.  Right now it’s down over 10% in the pre-market, which is too much.

On the golds, I continue to like AAU, RGLD and XG.  Also, watch IVN, which has call sellers betting against it, but which could short squozen at any time.

On another note, it’s Derby Week, so I will be trying to talk a little bit about the ponies for the fans.  Do recognize, however, that this is one of my busiest weeks, so let’s keep the comment section hopping and I’ll try to reply from the Crack wherever I may be.

Best to you all, and Happy Osama is Deceased Day!

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A Prince is Wed

Prince Amakamura
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No, not that balding ponce, you tossy sods, but Prince Amukamara, the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year and 6’0″ 219 lb. (eleven stone!) shut down cornerback out of Nebraska, who was wed to the glorious and never diminishing New York Giants Football organization last evening as their 2011 Number One Draft Choice.

And no, you across-the-pond and Eurostanian wankers, not that commie “football,” either, but rather the real thing, with tackling that is encouraged and smiled upon, rather than rewarded with flimsy red cards from referees with tight shorts and no hats.

And let it be known, that in my capacity as the #1 Giant Fan Financial Blogger in the Known Universe, I bestow my blessing on this union (though perhaps not on the NFL Players Union) as a “good match” and for the Giants organization amplify that description by naming it  “a great catch.”  

You see, this kid was supposed to be a top ten draft pick, and I even saw one mock draft that had him going at #6.   There was a tiny bit of hair on him, I guess, given that he enjoyed 5 interceptions in his junior year whilst garnering zero this year.   That can readily be ascribed to quarterbacks never daring to throw in his direction this year, and his largely acknowledged “shut down” reputation, which connotes that the receivers he guarded never caught anything either.  

All that said, I concur 100% with Giant GM Jerry Reese in his assessment that a good defense can “never have enough pass rushers or quality cornerbacks.”   Let’s face it, thanks to TV machinations and wholesale rule changes designed to boost ratings, the NFL has become a passing game.  Despite that tendency in offensive schemes, the old adage that “Defense wins Superbowls” holds true to this day.  Therefore, marrying the two realities, one can only conclude that having superior athletes that can shut down the passing, either by sacking or air-tight coverage (and one can often lead to the other) imperative.

Therefore, I welcome the Prince (he really is a Prince, allegedly, though I doubt you’ll be seeing his nuptials on the E! Network anytime soon) with open arms and great hopes that he will enter the lists — along with Emlen Tunnel, Spider Lockhart, Mark Haynes and Mark Collins— of great Giant defensive backs from this day henceforth.

So shall it be written, so shall it be done.  Amen.

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As for the PM trades, the dollar appears to be continuing to flag bearishly, so I am continuing to be opportunstic in my “fishing.”  I actually grabbed a starter position in AG yesterday afternoon (announced first in The PPT) at $21.33.   I also opened a speculative position in SLW (to augment my stock position) by again purchasing the June $35.00 calls at a price just a hair below $7.15 a contract.

On the gold side, I continue to like ANV and AAU, the former for its relative strength and the latter for it’s takeover possibilities.

I continue to keep in place my lower bids for EXK, AG and AGQ for “just in case” fishing purposes, but I’m not really expecting to get much of those filled.  Fact is, the dollar continues to look sickly here, and I think any bounces at this point will continue to be of the deceased feline variety.
Best to you all.

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Dollar Death Dance

 
dollar death dance
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Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.

Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:

Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support.  I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.

Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn.  Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals.   In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.

Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV.  Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?

Pretty measured flag and pop formation right?   Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here?  Not me:

I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers.   As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos.  Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks.  Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?

Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:

Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you?  Me neither.    

Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce.   Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names.   My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:

Go get ’em, tigers.  

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Get Your Drowned Goats Here

 goats

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It’s raining cats and dogs here, and the drowned goats are accumulating on the banks of the river.

Time to start accumulating said goats for want of a strong spiced jerky that will carry you through the latter days when the Bernank’s stricken peso won’t even be exchangeable for a handful of magic beans.   Do you have your targets set?   I have mine.

Go ahead, put an order in for SLW at $38.00, and maybe some AGQ at $295 and some EXK at $10.30.   Who knows? You could get lucky.  Or you could get sad.   You can miss by a nickel on either side of the stanchion.   But what fun would life be with no chance, no uncertainty?

Whatever the case, I will be waiting and watching during this pullback.  Like an otter stalking an adder, I’ll be waiting for some opportune moments to rebuild my EXK/SLW/AGQ positions.   I also think that RGLD will come exactly back to the $55-56 breakout level from which it recently launched.  The ANVil may even return to the lower 30’s for those who missed it last time.

What opportunity awaits those Quakers who have missed so much over the last glorious month.  Even if you were never a fan, there will be opportunity for you to laugh with the bull very soon.

Very soon.

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Behold the Whirlwind

 whirlwind

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Silver’s lost its mind and is seemingly out of control.   It’s up another 75 cents tonight at at new highs in the upper $43.30’s.   Like a monkey that just had his rhubarb stick stolen, I’m standing here and continuing to sell into the whirlwind.

For example, I let loose another 600 shares of AGQ, this time at over $285.   I marvel at that price, as I can remember buying AGQ in the $20’s the first time around, and now you can make the downpayment on a decent Miami Beach condo with only 100 shares.  

I also sold more EXK, more MVG, and started selling SLW for the first time this year.  Last, I sold a large piece of my NGD, which had become cumbersome in it’s size, but is now more manageable.

Don’t get me wrong — I still have some 65% of my original PM positions, I just have a gut feeling, honed on many years of having that same gut knifed by this thinly traded murderous market, that it’s time to take some profits here.   Pigs get slaughtered, etc.

I will continue to look for a break here in the silver momentum.  I don’t expect it will very long when it comes, but it might be scary enough to shake some of our weaker hands.   I will look for more opportunities to divest into the whirlwind tomorrow as well.

My best to you all…

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You’re All I’ve Got Tonight

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEEUGaQTTQ0&feature=related 450 300]

(Can you believe this guy once married the most beautiful woman in the world?)

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It’s an unsettling time isn’t it?  Jake just said to you scant days ago, “Time to trim the sails, we’re in for some rough weather,” and yet silver keeps marching up to some argent Elysium, like a donkey with an egregious rutabaga tied to its head.

It can be frustrating, no?  Well, don’t take it hard.  Heck,  I sold almost 2,000 shares of AGQ the other day thinking I’d buy back in the low 200’s.  Silly me.

But I don’t let stuff like that get me down.  As I was explaining to a compatriot on The PPT today, we shouldn’t be afraid to hop right back on, even at a higher price, as long as we maintain the discipline to re-invest the same or smaller moneys that we originally received in exchange for our sold shares.  

This is important to remember.   Just like in the wider stock market, there are plenty of other shiny metal fish in the seas, and we need to build the maturity to be able to re-allocate resources to other, perhaps better valued opportunities.  A good example I can provide would be my decision, some time ago, to sell some SLW and apply those funds to a new stock I’d decided reminded me of old SLW at the $3 level at which I had originally begun buying it.

That stock, some of you may recall, was EXK.  

Today the cycle turns again, and I find myself selling off some (about 30%) of my “topped off” position in EXK in the $12+ regions.   Those on The PPT will attest that I took a full 10,000 shares off last week.

I have yet to buy any back, and I may never do so.   My eye has turned to other seeds that may enrich my garden plot.  Perhaps some GPL?  Some AG?  A touch of AUMN, or crappy BAA?

… or maybe, just maybe some more XG, my favorite spinoff junior goldie, which is beginning to look might ripe:

Stay thirsty, my friends.

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