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No Time Like the Present

sunburn

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It’s not like I don’t get little enough sleep as it is… No, Fly’s gotta start chucking cherry bombs over at his place, talking all kinds of pina colada-induced nonsense about voting for the Emperor again, despite his concerted attack on the American economic system and his attempt to “transform” us into Denmark in the middle of a mild recession that is getting less and less milder as we speak.

All because he thinks Rick Perry — 11 year governor of Texas and one-time Southern Democrat — is going to abolish the Fed?  Can he be serious?  No, I don’t think he is, either.

No, I’m blaming it on second-degree sunburn, and leaving off.  I don’t believe the Fly really wants to turn us into Europe… not with what’s going on over there right now, as their underfunded demographically-imploding welfare states dissolve into a puddle of ill-trained and ungrateful flash-mobs.   And really, what can you expect from a country whose National Health Service had 239 patients die from malnutrition last year?

Yes, you read that right… click on the article to read more about the glories of social democracy and state-based healthcare provision.   Obamacare, anyone?

It’s okay.  You made a mistake.  It hurts, and it’s embarrassing.  Hell, you’ve got to ditch all that blue and red block-printed poster-board and tee shirtage.  But don’t fret… there’s good news.

You’ll have a chance to right that wrong in 2012.  It’s not going to be the “perfect candidate.”  It never is.  Sometimes you have to choose the good over the perfect, and sometimes even the lesser of two evils.

In this case, the choice won’t be that difficult.  You’ve got a chance to undo some pretty significant damage.  I know you’ll do the right thing in the end.

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I remain stolid in my recent positions.  My hedges, such as they are, harden into calcified barnacles, neither sentient nor proud.  Their growth is de minimus, moving like the tides, if at all.

I’m not wholly convinced that the PM’s are quite dead or ready to roll over, so I guess I will wait for a sound.  In the meantime, I continue to winnow positions in other areas, moving to an almost wholly “cash and PM” portfolio, save for my ETF positions and the BWA, WNR and UPS I still own.

OpEx is a tough week.  Let us watch and wait for it to resolve itself. AUY continues to look fantastic, btw.

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Timing the Flip

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVAD8Zl5ngg 450 300]

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Looking over my charts this evening (no shoulder devils or broken elevators), it seems that while the price of gold is doing the Heschel Walker down the field, the metal’s miners are lagging behind like a fat man with smoker’s hack.  This gives me some pause and has me with my finger on the trigger.   Despite minor wins today in AUQ, AUY and ANV, most miners that didn’t start with “A” were having trouble addressing the field.   Moreover, silver struggled at the $40 line and gave it up by the end of the day.  As a result, despite gold being up nicely, I was still down in my miner-saturated portfolio almost 2% overall today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen this play before (gold up, silver and PM miners lagging) and I don’t intend to stick around to see what comes of it again.  I will likely sell some portions of my miners tomorrow morning and then hedge the rest with sold calls.  I  will also launch the remainder of my  NUGT and DGP (what remains of them) even as I’ll  likely hold on to my GLD and SLV positions for the duration,

I will then likely  spin some of the newly raised cash into a few rebound stock positions to take advantage of a bounce I feel certain shall finally come tomorrow as we test the depths of 1090 and perhaps lower.  I am again looking at QLD, TNA, EEM and possibly, quite possibly EDC again (very small ball!).

Be well and be wary, my friends.

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And Away We Go

away we go

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It’s kind of an odd feeling, really. Seeing that I’ve been ranting about the U.S. unfunded liability overhang and its one logical solution, you’d think I’d be out there wagging my finger in peoples’ faces and doing a touchdown dance as our debt is (symbolically and politically, I know) downgraded from “pristine” once again, and the rout of the U.S. dollar is on in earnest.

Instead of taking great joy in $1,700+ gold and $40+ silver I’m seeing tonight, and preparing myself to buy others’ margin calls tomorrow morning, I’m sitting here more than a little bit numb.   This is still my country after all, and it’s still a punch in the gut to see it caught in a debt trap of its own construction.   Yeah, we saw it coming, and that’s why we’ve been building a fortress of gold and silver to shelter us.

But will it be enough?

I honestly don’t know.   For all I know, my miners will get waxed along with the rest of the market (if in fact the market doesn’t just head fake completely tomorrow).   My sturdy ETF’s might malfunction, my options might turn to gruel and even my physical might be tough to transfer if the President decides to go “Full Metal Franklin Delano” on us.    Let’s face it folks, it’s all fine and good to prepare financially, but we are entering into unchartered waters here, and it’s not like we’ve got Horatio Nelson at the wheel, here.

I really didn’t think we’d arrive at this hour this quickly — in 2011.  However, the combination of torpid growth and high unemployment have hit tax collections to such a degree that the current rates of spending have blown a hole in our debt capacity well before we expected in the mid 2000-teens.  There will be painful choices ahead that will make this summer’s kabuki theater play look like the first round of Let’s Make a Deal in comparison.

I don’t doubt they will include tax increases, and likely across the whole bulk of the citizenry.   There are just not enough wealthy people with taxable income around to bring us to any sort of solvency — even with massive cuts to the Federal budget.  No, we’re going to have to go back to the old ways — where everyone contributes at some level, and there are no more free-riders.  If you try to get this done on the back of “him behind that tree,” you will inspire nothing but enmity in the capital providers, which will in turn only drive our economy to darker depths.

I am hoping this shot across our bough will be enough to drive our politicians to a serious assessment of our national dent — both on and off-balance sheet.  If instead this opportunity is squanderd and the pols decide it’s more electorally profitable to scare old people into believing they’ll be left high and dry at the prospect of any reform, God help us all.

In an event, we should have a good day in the gold sector tomorrow.  I will be looking very closely at the action not only on the physical metals themselves (gold, silver, platinum), but also at the $HUI to keep an eye on the miners, and on AUY in particular.  It seemed to take a much lighter hit last week on the pullback, and that may mean it’s getting ready to really take off after that long consolidation.

Good luck to us all.

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The Next Big Thing

borgcookie

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I already gave you this idea a few weeks back, but I wanted to bring my favorite Japanese gold play (not really), Yamana Gold (AUY), back to your attention.  As I mentioned in my last feature, this is one of the longest saucer-consolidation patterns I’ve seen forming in the gold sector since the March 2009 Recovery, and I think we are finally done consolidating and getting ready to launch with vigour (sic). Look at the weekly one more time:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note that the real breakout is probably going to be somewhere above $14, and you might want to wait til you see that number.  I already own some, however, and may add on strength tomorrow.   As I would with any long term consolidation in a bull, I expect AUY to launch quite nicely once it breaks out of it’s saucer pattern here.

Today I cut back on some over-weighted positions, as announced in The PPT.  That includes AAU, RGLD, DGP, some more NUGT and even silver star AG. I still have tonnes left in each of those names, btw.

Today I took advantage of Crazy Eddie “low, low, low” prices to nab some more UPS and TCK as well.  UPS is perhaps one of the most solid companies in the world.  It was on sale today so I added.    I also opened a new position in Borg Warner (BWA) which I have been stalking from much higher numbers.  I really like the auto supplier space.  There’s tonnes of activity going on in the Private Equity market there as well.

Best to you all.  I will be on the road again tomorrow but checking in.

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Greetings from Mosquitopia

Maine

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As I sit here inside my famous Maine homestead, on the end of a sea-bounded rocky egg surrounded by pines, raccoons, osprey, snowy egret, billions of tonnes of mesomorphic and granitic stone, and sluggish black mosquitoes as big as your head, know that I’m thinking of you all fondly.

Today I kayaked all the way out to a remote island in the middle of the bay with my two older sons and a cousin of theirs.  I was extremely proud to see them make it on what was a more arduous journey than we first conceived.  It sort of makes one feel all the tonnes and tonnes of extraneous food they are now consuming is going to some good use in the gradual addition of competent sinew and bone.  Be advised, however, the grocery bill on vacation, fueled by noshing and boozing adults and teenage boys exposed to the brisk northern air can look like the tally for a small air force base under battle ready conditions.

And that’s not even counting the “going out to dinner” tabs.   I think I am going to insist on summer jobs from here on out.

Don’t expect much from me this week, churlish churls.  I’ll  not be like the Monsieur le Fly, regaling you with tales of Amish cow-tipping and such.  No, you’ll be lucky to get the occasional report these next two weeks.  I don’t expect to be doing much in the market save banquing coyne (sic), as it seems the PM run is going to continue whether I’m in front of my screen or not.

I’ve given you several names over the last couple of weeks, and I think the small ones will provide much bang for the buck (AAU, BAA, CGR and BRD particularly).   There are a couple that I will be watching very closely, however, as their longer term chart patterns are appealing to me.  Let’s start with AUQ, which I haven’t spoken much about:

I think there will be some pullbacks in the weeks ahead and I think these are your best bets, long term, on some kind of a retrenchment.  AUQ has just had an awesome consolidation period.   So has has the crazy Japanese Man, Yamana (AUY), which may have the biggest saucer pattern of the PM Renaissance Era.  Tell me you don’t see something happening here?

 

And it’s not like AUY’s chart’s indications couldn’t be any clearer…  in fact, I think in the end, you will see AUY do what RGLD is doing right now as we speak.  Do you own the Grandmama of them all?   If not, it’s not for lack of my nagging….

Be well, and don’t let the big ass black mosquitoes bite.

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Grounds for Nervousness?

 
Oh Noes!
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I had a reader inquire on the last posting about the state of some of my favoured (sic) silver-golden children. I speak particularly of [[SLW]] and [[IAG]], of whose Canadian charts, he was somewhat ill-taken. Point of fact, I think he was experiencing some painful reverse peristalsis, to cadge a term.

He mentioned also [[AUY]] but while I’ve spoken of them before as a decent buy and hold, they fall into my “aquiror” basket rather than potential “acquiree,” one and therefore I find them less appetizing.

But still nutritious with regard to a balanced portfolio of course!

Back to [[SLW]] which you all know holds a favoured place in my heart, much like one of my children, save not breathing or in need of sustencance, and quite weighty for it’s size and youth.   Whenever I need some perpsective on these names (or any names, s’truth) I repair to the weekly charts for a more holistic gander.  In this regard, SLW shows us a pattern in good standing:

As you will note, we are consilidating after breaking to multi-year and yes, “all time” highs.  If anything, we’re forming a bit of a handle whilst using the 13-week EMA as support.   Not exactly cause for alarm given the 13-week’s reliability over the last 15 months or so. 

Next let’s look at the weekly for the Gold Man Sacks, otherwise known as [[IAG]]:

IAG may need some time before it  breaks back above that $20 mark that defined its recent high back in November of ’09, but this consolidation pattern is by no means a sickly one.  The 13-wk EMA serves as the stalwart in this case as well, and should be watched as IAG grinds higher.

[[AUY]] is the least pretty, and frankly, its last quarterly earnings report denote some work that needs to be done before it can recapture it’s place of “honour.”  Note the Limbo in which it currently finds itself:

 While I believe this is a decent “buy and hold,” I think AUY likely has at least a quarter or two more to go before it can attempt to break to new highs.  It, too, should hold abover the 13 week EMA, but in this case, the real test will be a break of $13.

Good luck and do not fear, as I believe the dollar will be our friend going forward, in ascendency or demise.

Best to you all.

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    One last thing:

Happy Memorial Day to all, and especially to our veterans here and departed, without whom we would never have the pleasure of these inter-tube conversations. Thank you for your sacrifice.

And a special treat — the inimitable Renaissance Man and combat veteran Mark Helprin has a special Memorial Day essay that is “must” reading for all sensible citizens of this great land.

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