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It looks like Argentum Silver is leading the PM hordes forth again, most likely as a direct predecessor to another dollar break here.  Up over 2.5% as I type and outpacing it’s usually more lively cousin, Aurum Gold, which is up only one-tenth as much.

I think this is a good sign, even for you non-PM investors, as silver is the more sensitive to the “commodity” and “industrial” sectors, and it’s rise here should be good news for all of you commodity speculators, whether you be earl rustlers or coal bandits.  I will continue with my investments in refiners until they stop making sense, however, even with a rise in earl.  I continue to like WNR and PSX, for instance.  HFC as well.

For silver bugs, I went long(er) today by adding to my AGQ position, for the short term trip to the 200-day EMA, at close to $50 right now.  I will likely sell this additional piece off when we reach that mark, however, as I don’t like to be too heavily leveraged in this volatile metal.   At least, not for any length of time.

I also like EXK here, despite it’s continue pokiness compared to jackrabbit AG.  SSRI also seems to be re-gaining ground, if you are of the speculative sort.  As always, SIL and SLW are the formidable base of my silver horde, and I recommend those for any toe dippers.

Best to you.

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Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

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Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

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I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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A little more creepy, three and half years later?

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Small plebs, I can see now why my good friend, le Monsieur de la Mosca, supported the inexperienced young  Senator from Illinois way back in the day when we knew little about him other than that he sported a dimwitted hairplugged running mate that did not dog sled, rassle bear, or wear a brassiere.   You see, my friend is very perceptive, and seeking a strong hand in the Executive Branch in our time of trouble, he saw the inner-Generalissimo in the fresh faced Barack Obama.  He knew this guy was not going to be bothered by any such niceties as separation of powers, or heck, eveen recognition of any other powers in our triune system.

And so today, we recognize that the Monsieur’s perspicacity has won out.   The drumbeat that began with an increasingly monarchial delegation of legislative power to the President’s various bureaucratic armies at DOJ, EPA, FDA, TSA, DOE, etc. has now culminated in an unprecedented display of Caesarian flair.  

 Leveraging the work of his long expelled Democrat Congress of 2006-2010, the Emperor has now done the good work “for the people” by ignoring the Senate’s inquiries regarding the new Dodd-Frank Bank Bill-created Orwellian New-Speak-monikered Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and installing a “Czar” who will now benevolantly overlook our every credit card transaction, from your innocuous swipes at the gas station to your most illicit anonymous internet transaction. 

 Gosh forbid you should not know what you are doing with those credit cards that have been around since the early-1950’s boys and girls!   Don’t worry, though Papa-Doc Barack’s main man, deposed Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray — aka,  “The Fat Ohio Farmers’ Elliot Spitzer” — will be holding your hand every step of the way.  Just don’t you dare try to break that hand grip, though, boys and girls.

Not happy with that one questionable “recess appointment,” (made when Congress was not actually in recess!), however, Caesar Obamustus also decided he was tired of waiting for the Senate to approve his three hard left candidates to the already newsworthy National Labor Relations Board (NRLB) of Boeing Aircraft meddling fame.  Again, this unprecendented assertion of Executive power provoked questions of dicatatorial/monarchial transition across the Republic.

The real question, however, is why would an embattled President take such broad risks now, given the sordid reputation of these installed parties?  The cynical answer?  To create a political battle that will make the POTUS an aggrieved victim during an election year.  This would be a confirmation that the President believes the economy will be of little help to him in 2012, and that the “full-populist” Chavista appeal is his only angle.   Moreover, like Chavez early on in his populist socialist campaigns, the President knows he has most of the press in his pocket… at least today.  But will that be enough to carry him through to November?

Only the advancing electoral process will tell.  My bet?  The press will get sick of covering  for this kind of Executive excess.  He’ll keep the hard-liners like Paul Krugman and EJ Dionne, but some of the more traditional populist lefties will start to break from the fugue soon, and begin questioning the Emperor’s “new” prêt-à-porter selections….

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Whether it’s the current political imbroglio, or perhaps the “great news” coming out of the employment front, the dollar has decided to break back out of its recent consolidation-retrace and blast ahead nearly 75 cents on the DX Index.  Interestingly, gold and silver are not taking this big move very hard, with most of my miners down between 1.0%-2.5% (which is de minimus in our world) and even AGQ (double silver) only down about 2%.

That said, this rebound will likely last for a couple of days given my target for the dollar here at $81.50 or thereabouts, and I will likely lighten up on some of my miner holdings as a result.  I shaved a little bit of ERX yesterday and will take some more of that down as well.  One doesn’t want to be holding double-ETF’s in this environment.  I think I will be targeting around 50% cash so that I will have dry powder for when the dollar turns again.  I’ll make my moves on any retrace of the dollar today.

Best to you all.

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Improve your aim!

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I don’t have a whole lot of commentary time tonight but I wanted to get this in because a number of you were fretting about today’s action.  True, we did some pretty nasty technical damage on the price of gold, but not yet enough to convince me to run screaming.   That’s doubly true with the faithful indicators of The PPT signalling oversold on the GLD trading vehicle.

I am seeing a lot of oversold conditions in the miners as well, as many of you are probably uncomfortably aware.  This is not the time to be sinking your dough into highly leveraged bets, as the dollar can get away from us very quickly with an index break towards $80.00 and an escape from the double top condition we had just a week ago.  That means those of  you messing with AGQ better steer clear… y’hear?

Gold itself — the commodity — has been very good about respecting it’s 34-week EMA ever since the 2009 lows when the precious started making its epic comeback.  I believe that weekly line will hold again this week, but beware — we may get a tail on this candle before Friday (note the other tail penatrations of the line in the historical chart below), and you may want to lighten into tomorrow’s expected bounce as  a result.  Here’s the chart:

Remember, it’s better to be safe than sorry at this juncture.  Don’t be a hero and let’s play small(er) ball while we figure out which way the dollar is going to resolve itself.

My best to you all.   Tomorrow, I will endeavor to get a short economic piece out challenging Mr. Henry Blodget’s latest brainstorm declaring that it’s not actually entrepreneurs who create jobs… but “demand.”  (NOTE: as of right now, the post has been taken down or the link is dead… I think Blodgett realized what an ass he’d made of himself, but let’s give it to tomorrow to see what’s what).

I can retell the tale tomorrow, but suffice it to say that if this is the latest liberal shibboleth being trotted out to attack classical economics (and basic common sense), it needs to be nipped in its exceedingly innumerate bud.

Best to you all.

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