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Yes, it’s getting to be that time of year again.  That time when the Louisville Basketball Cards get my hopes up by doing real well (maybe even winning) in the Big East Tournament, only to dash my head up against the sea-foam flecked jetty by crapping the bed in the actual NCAA Tournament.

Well, they’re doing it again, playing one of the best games of their season against #9 ranked Marquette (the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament), snagging 26 offensive rebounds and forcing Marquette into 25 turnovers (they’d averaged 12 all year).  Will this defensive dominance be enough to take them past Notre Dame tomorrow night and into the finals on Saturday?

I don’t really care, as I’m steeling myself against any victory.  It’s all for the best, believe me.

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Except for purchases of EXK and TC on Wednesday, I’ve been sitting around eating samitches.   I’m still a bit leery of this market, despite the dollar losing a lot of steam today while gold & silver strengthened.   I’m up pretty nicely on EXK and I’m even thinking about adding some more AG.   However, I still continue to believe that AUY is one of the better bets in the gold miner market.  Check how the price has rebounded nicely on the weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this is where I think the “safe zone” is to purchase … above $17.50 where that handle in the weekly will be better defined.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best to you all, and Go Cards! (and Big East in general).

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Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

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Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

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Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

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What do you know? After trying to fake me out by blasting past my $79.80 target today, the dollar capitulated and sold off deep to about $79.25 at the lows. It’s now about $79.40.

I think earl and gold are the plays here right now, and if you are not in my two “Samurai 7” earl plays, COP and PBR, then you want to really think hard about them tomorrow. That COP is just too phat at 8x trailing earnings and a nice yield to boot.

Moreover, I think it’s safe to say that SLW was the call for today.  Unfortunately, as I recounted in the comment section of my last post,  I missed my buy stop by about ten cents.  See what happens when you try to get finicky like that?  I think I’m better off just buying at market sometimes.

In any case, the PM trade seems to be back on for now, and besides my favorite silvers like AG and EXK, I would be looking to the gold juniors, specifically GDXJ (the ETF) and AXU and BAA if you can stomach the volatility.  Otherwise, AUY, GG and RGLD are looking good here, Lucy.

Best to you all.

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The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?

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Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?

But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets.  From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets.  Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.

That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff.   This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as  I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.

Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year.  Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor.  Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?

 

 

 

 

      I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime.   I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver.  This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.

My best to you.

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Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

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I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

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