Assembly Line Samich Makin’

 

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This end of the year is something else, no? You can feel the bull flows as they pulse through the market, and yet, they are driven much like all else, by the destruction of the dollar.

A destruction that is — seemingly — ahead even of my own most draconian schedule.  But I must have proof, I must have evidence before I send my portfolio over the cliff of hard asset liquidity.

Some of this action seems just a bit too pat for my tastes, and I am most assuredly nervous, and buttering my rye bread three times before slapping my slices together with fresh arugula, holland tomatoes, and thinly sliced roast mutton.  I will eat many samiches before making a definitive move.

I note that the dollar is sliding off a cliff again, and gold is heading to new highs whilst silver has already achieved them ($30.77 as of this sitting).

Yet the $HUI (my favored “Gold Bug Index“), and more important, my silver stocks still lag their early ecember highs. True PAAS is acting a champion and EXK is inching towards old highs (though selling off this afternoon).  SLW, too, is not close to $42, and this gives me pause.

I have decided to leave it up to the dollar, and these two charts (weekly and daily, respectively) will give you all the information you need.   The lines of resistance on the weekly are quite clear, and brought to you by Signorelli Fibonacci himself.   These weekly fibs tend to hold up quite well, which doesn’t bode happy news for our greenback:

Like the 200 week EMA in the above weekly chart, the daily provides us with an adequate signal — the 50 day EMA — which should prove conclusive given the already oversold condition in the daily:

  

 If we get a rebound, I will hold onto my hedges on my PM positions.   If we see further declines — and especially through these resistance levels — I shall be taking them off, and most likely piling back in aggressively.

That is all, really.

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There’s a lot of excitement on the blogosphere and within our own confines.   Now is not the time to lose one’s head.  EXK is an excellent long term investment.

Its time, however, is not yet come.   The dollar will die, and the precious metals will return ascendant.   However, this bull will shake you like a terrier on a sewer rat.   It has not been and it will not ever be an easy bull.

If you want to pile in on something, drunken sailor style, go with the very tiny market phantom metal stocks like REE or AVL.   Silver and gold are longer in the tooth than Yukon Cornelius.  Good DAY, sir.

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Every chart I look at is registering overbought like a mother. Doesn’t mean that we can’t eke out some more gains here. I just wouldn’t bank on a big run, that’s all.

I may get some TZA this week, or QID, or perhaps even some SPY puts for the first time in an age.  You know how bullish I’ve been these past months since early September, so you know this is a serious admonition…

Get hedged, pledge.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlsJD8RlhbI&feature 450 300]

(Wow, this is cool!)

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And let nothing ye dismay!

Seeing my kids get all hopped up with Christmas greed in anticipation of Coca-Cola/Norman Rockwell Santa  (note the date)  has me reminiscing back to my own childhood Christmases as one of six kids in a crowded household in western Nassau County, Lawn Guyland.

My Mom and Dad were freaks for Christmas, you see, even in the bad years when they couldn’t really afford it.  They always made it special for us, bills be damned.  If we reeeally, really wanted something — even a Red Ryder BB-gun (I asked for and got one even before that movie had made its debut), we’d be sure to get it.  

Don’t get me wrong — they were hard as flint the rest of the year, but on Christmas they were marshmallows and couldn’t do enough for their little ones.  That’s Irish Christmas I guess.  And now that I’m old I can get all Irish-Sentimental about it. 

Forgive, for this night at least.

My folks were so strong on the spirit of the Day, and for all its bells and whistles, I don’t know many who can compare in this century.   Every season, my dad would string the big, multi-colored bulb lights out on the rhododendron bushes with many a muttered curse,  and my Mom would carefully place the white incandescent candles in all the windows, along with the fragrant evergreen wreaths on the front door.  Inside, the joint would be festooned with Santas, Frostys, Rudolphs and their incongruous holiday rivals–  the myriad somber and serious Nativity collections.  On the turntable, Johnny Mathis and Elvis platters dominated the holiday music scene, but even Barbra Streisand got a healthy workout, Christmas-tune-wise.

But for Santa and his over-the-top largesse, my parents carried a special place in their hearts.  In analyzing it today, I can only ascribe their fervor for Santa to their pent-up generosity, and their desire to give anonymously so as not to somehow “spoil” us.  Even when I was in college, my mother wouldn’t even wink at the notion that my holiday presents came from anywhere else but the North Pole.   And as younger kids, year after year, my Dad would go to great lengths to keep us within the ranks of the credulous…

I remember one night in the late seventies, when I was approaching that age when we are all wont to give up on Santa Claus for good.  I was the oldest boy in the family and with four brother below me, my Dad had to come up with something that would keep me a member of the tribe.  So, long before “Santa Norad” and other on-line Christmas cheer, my Dad came up with the idea of “Calling Santa Control,” on the phone in our kitchen.  

He would dial a number on that old long-corded wall phone, listen intently, nod “yes, yes” with an always-serious mein, and then, placing his hand over the receiver, would tell us Santa was just passing Paris, or Madrid, or wherever, on his way to North America.   Of course, my closest-in-order brother and I, being of the skeptical age, would ask to “listen in.”   He would be obliging, and would then hold the phone up to our ears — one at a time — where we would hear a very official sounding voice telling us something very official that we would not really be able to fully make out.  He only held the phone to our ears for about ten seconds, you see.

Long enough.  He had my brother and I for at least another year, and with us convinced, the whole brood was satisfied.   A magic man, my dad, and at his best in the Season.  

Merry Christmas, my friends, Merry merry Christmas to you all.

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God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen : Lyrics

From God our Heavenly Father
A blessed Angel came;
And unto certain Shepherds
Brought tidings of the same:
How that in Bethlehem was born
The Son of God by Name.
O tidings of comfort and joy,
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

“Fear not then,” said the Angel,
“Let nothing you affright,
This day is born a Saviour
Of a pure Virgin bright,
To free all those who trust in Him
From Satan’s power and might.”
O tidings of comfort and joy,
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

The shepherds at those tidings
Rejoiced much in mind,
And left their flocks a-feeding
In tempest, storm and wind:
And went to Bethlehem straightway
The Son of God to find.
O tidings of comfort and joy,
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

And when they came to Bethlehem
Where our dear Saviour lay,
They found Him in a manger,
Where oxen feed on hay;
His Mother Mary kneeling down,
Unto the Lord did pray.
O tidings of comfort and joy,
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

Now to the Lord sing praises,
All you within this place,
And with true love and brotherhood
Each other now embrace;
This holy tide of Christmas
All other doth deface.
O tidings of comfort and joy,
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy
 

 

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Sorry Florida fans, we’ve got your “Urban Meyer Magic” right here in the Lou, and he’s not going anywhere.

(At least not this year)

No, seriously, though… do you think it’s a coincidence that The University of Florida, with the best recruiting classes over the last ten plus years, bar none, sucked balls this year without Defensive Coordinator Charlie Strong?  

And do you believe it a coincidence that Florida head coach Urban Meyer has decided to resign again this year, and flee back to the bosom of his family and “good health?”  C’mon.

I happen to think it’s no coincidence, especially as Charlie Strong has managed to not only make the Cards bowl eligible in his first year as head coach (after 27 years as an assistant at various racist SEC-Conference schools), but also to win their first bowl since winning the 2007 Orange Bowl four years ago (with former, now Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino), 31-28 over Southern Mississippi.

Okay, so it was the Beef O’ Brannigans Beer & Cheesenutz and Light Draft Bowl, but you have to start somewhere right?  And that “Florida Magic” —  which really stemmed from Charlie’s ability to recruit fine young men from Florida –has already begun to bear fruit.  Note this week’s news — as Louisville has landed it’s first five star recruit, Teddy Bridgewater of Northern Miami, since hometown boy RB Michael Bush (now with the Raiders), signed seven years ago.   Here’s the skinny:

Miami Northwestern quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, a five-star recruit who is widely considered to be one of the best dual threat quarterback prospects in the county, announced his commitment to coach Charlie Strong and the Louisville Cardinals earlier today. Bridgewater, a one-time Miami commit who reopened his options after Shannon’s termination, made it clear that the chance to get on the field early was the biggest factor in his decision.

 

That’s right, they stole this guy from “The U” — Miami University — his own hometown school.  Now that’s strong… that’s Charlie Strong.   Looking forward to watching my Cards continue to kick ass until the SEC steals Charlie back, swallowing crow on their 27 year mistake.  I fear will ultimately be our porridge, and am resigned to it.

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Speaking of “resigned to our porridge,” I am ultimately resigned to a pullback here, and have begun hedging my large PM positions with sold “in the money” calls on my largest pieces.

I sold 80 $34 strike February calls for SLW today, for example.   I also have written call orders in for EXK, ANV, IAG and several others that have yet to fill.  I also sold 10k shares of GSS today at $4.79, which was 45% of my position.  

I plan to keep on with these moves as we go to year end.  I am writing calls because I’ve already taken egregious gains this year, and would like to defer any additional taxable gains into next year.  Also, I would like to maintain my “core position” in many PM positions despite my inclinations toward lower prices in the near term.  Silver, however is looking like it will pull back in dreadful fashion.   Be apprised.

One other thing, I must take the opportunity to brag on my “rare earth metals” position in AVARF, which I will likely trim by 30 to 50% tomorrow.  After holding for about a month, that sucker took off today with a newly announced AMEX listing.  Sometimes it’s as simple as that.

Best to you all, my gente.

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I have finally finished my 2011 Predictions.  That exercise, combined with the Worst Giant Loss in Two Centuries has sapped my creative energies and limited my blogging potential.

Let’s leave it tonight with my assurance that I will be hedging many of my positions again this week.  The dollar is struggling, but so too are gold and silver, which tell me that we are at a  short term peaking period.   I don’t think we get to the end of the year unscathed.

Prepare ye, and good night.

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