Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Counting Cards


Yes, it’s getting to be that time of year again.  That time when the Louisville Basketball Cards get my hopes up by doing real well (maybe even winning) in the Big East Tournament, only to dash my head up against the sea-foam flecked jetty by crapping the bed in the actual NCAA Tournament.

Well, they’re doing it again, playing one of the best games of their season against #9 ranked Marquette (the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament), snagging 26 offensive rebounds and forcing Marquette into 25 turnovers (they’d averaged 12 all year).  Will this defensive dominance be enough to take them past Notre Dame tomorrow night and into the finals on Saturday?

I don’t really care, as I’m steeling myself against any victory.  It’s all for the best, believe me.


Except for purchases of EXK and TC on Wednesday, I’ve been sitting around eating samitches.   I’m still a bit leery of this market, despite the dollar losing a lot of steam today while gold & silver strengthened.   I’m up pretty nicely on EXK and I’m even thinking about adding some more AG.   However, I still continue to believe that AUY is one of the better bets in the gold miner market.  Check how the price has rebounded nicely on the weekly:



















And this is where I think the “safe zone” is to purchase … above $17.50 where that handle in the weekly will be better defined.





















Best to you all, and Go Cards! (and Big East in general).


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Here We Go Again


Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue


the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last


at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead


I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright


Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.




















Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.




















I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.


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Prosperity Sandwich



I know, I know…  I’ve claimed “I’m busy” many times to you but I will do so once again.  I am truly burning the candle at both ends, Breitbart-style, and it’s going to have to stop.  I may have to take a leave of absence until I can get some of these deals through the chute over the next couple of months.  Work is literally coming through the door at an unprecedented pace, and it’s beginning to get slightly out of hand.  I’m not sure if it’s Obama Panic or Demographic Destiny, but people who own quality companies are throwing their hands up and saying “get me out” like a pack of dachshunds in a Pringles cannery. It’s never been like this in my memory, and most of my career has taken place in the warm sun of a bull market.

But it’s not like a bull market selling environment, despite the hefty buyers interest out there.  The shareholders’ optimism is no longer there.  Instead of my having to fight clients into viewing business as a cycle and not a permanent slope to heaven, now I have to “sell, sell, sell!” like Cramer on airplane glue, because the end is near, and it’s awful to behold.

I’m not going to complain, truly as there are many many buyers with cash out there — also more than I’ve ever seen.  Until that pool attenuates my job is easier than it has been in the past, despite the macroeconomic conditions.   It’s even fun.  I just hope I can make it through to the finish on all of it….


But on the stock side, I’m munching a Prosperity Sandwich, while waiting to see if my $HUI resolves itself here.   So far, the silver precious has held up decently, even as the dollar has rebounded back above $79.  In the meantime, the $HUI stays in it’s channel (and will do so even below $500), and perhaps touches the lower edge again.  Remains to be seen.  I’m doing nothing, and I’ve still got 40% of my cash to throw at something, or maybe nothing.  It’s nice to have opportunities…



















Let’s keep our eyes open.  If the dollar cranks any higher, it could have ill effect on our miners.  Below $490 on the $HUI could be time to retract, and perhaps even edge.  Eyes front, and on the road.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmULExhw8aQ 450 300]


To an Athlete Dying Young

By A. E. Housman

The time you won your town the race
We chaired you through the market-place;
Man and boy stood cheering by,
And home we brought you shoulder-high.
Today, the road all runners come,
Shoulder-high we bring you home,
And set you at your threshold down,
Townsman of a stiller town.
Smart lad, to slip betimes away
From fields where glory does not stay,
And early though the laurel grows
It withers quicker than the rose.
Eyes the shady night has shut
Cannot see the record cut,
And silence sounds no worse than cheers
After earth has stopped the ears.
Now you will not swell the rout
Of lads that wore their honours out,
Runners whom renown outran
And the name died before the man.
So set, before its echoes fade,
The fleet foot on the sill of shade,
And hold to the low lintel up
The still-defended challenge-cup.
And round that early-laurelled head
Will flock to gaze the strengthless dead,
And find unwithered on its curls
The garland briefer than a girl’s.

Source: The Norton Anthology of Poetry Third Edition (1983)


Today we lost a hero, a fighter, a warrior against the massing bullshit.  Say a prayer, or at least keep in your thoughts his beloved family who suffer tonight having lost a husband and father.  If you get it good, and thank you.  If you do not, God bless, and I mean that.

Best to you all.





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Box Wine Sublime



It was a little ironic the other day, I’ll admit, when I recommended the BAA trade for a “$5 Roll” (since successful) and was chided by commentator “Po Pimp” for a past recommendation that had also at one point promised a permanent place in “big boy stock” stock land north of $5.  That stock was AAU, if any attentive readers recall, and it only barely made it to $5.00 in late April of last year before stumbling and finally dropping to $2.00 by the doldrum period of last December.

I of course still owned AAU at the time of Po’s razzing, but hadn’t really studied the chart in a while.  That challenge, however, had me take another look, and what I saw last week was a stock also breaking out of a consolidation zone, just as BAA had done. Look at the weekly to see how we were breaking (even last week, if you look at the shorter candle before the present one forming this week) from a congestion zone and from an intermediate term down-channel.




















Last week’s promise confirmed today, when AAU surged over 15% on huge volume.  I don’t even know what the news was that drove this rocket today, and it could even just be a result of pent up demand.  One thing I do know is that this is happening more and more with the juniors, and I don’t expect it to stop very soon.   The dollar remains under pressure, as well.  I think we’ll get some continuation here, at least.

And maybe…. moooooore!




















Go have a box wine tonight, on old Uncle Jake, it can’t hurt none.   I also like CDE , AG, MVG and EXK here.

My best to you all.

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Trannies Leading the Rebound?

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc80tFJpTuo&feature=related 450 300]


I’ve never been abashed by my love for the Trannies, nor my love for Charles Dow, who employed them to great effect in his famous theory.  Some of us were dismayed to the see the Trannies pulling back while the rest of the market soared.  My contention is the Trannies were just leading, and took their pause first.

Note this weekly Tranny chart which shows the sector sticking the landing on the 13-week EMA, and showing stochastic signs of a rebound:


Now check out the action on my favourite Tranny of them all… Ms. UPS!



And here’s the daily, which also says, “come to supper.”



I think we are about to take off again, overall market wise… but maybe not before our Transport lovelies have blazed the path.  My best to you all.



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