Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

On the Important Matter of the Jennifer Connelly Paradox

Come, hither.
Come, hither.

Absolutely, drop-dead fantabulously smoking hot, and yet from Brooklyn.   Odd, no?



FYI – just crapped their earnings, which may have implications for TC tomorrow, but we will have to wait and see.   Last I looked, they were only down about six cents.   More in a later post.


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On the Important Matter of the Swine Flu

An expert rebuttal:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaK9bjLy3v4 450 300]

PPT Favorite (at one time #1 pick) QSII (PPT: Buy) is looking like it wants to make another move over 52-week highs here.   On the PM side, the one damn silver stock I have been watching but not recommending — SSRI (PPT: Sell) is making a nice catch up move here, to it’s recent highs of $17.88, but I think it needs  nice pullback and $17.00 or so would provide a better entry when it does.  In the meantime, SLW (PPT: Sell)  (back above it’s 200-day MA) and PAAS (PPT: Sell) continue to be “accumulates” here, along with GDX (PPT: Buy),  all for the long term portfolios.

On the best PM on the radar right now, I’d look at RGLD (PPT: Sell), I think RGLD has finally recovered from it’s secondary sale, and will begin its run back to old highs this week.   Near term targets $41, $46 and $48, depending on how long you’d like to hold.    RGLD will be featured as a Jacksonian Core Holding stock, soon.    Stay tuned, bacon lovers, more pork products to come.


UPDATE:  Bot 2,000 more RGLD @ $37.52

UPDATE:  Bot 4,000 more ANV (PPT: Sell) @ $5.83-5.86

Caveat:  If you follow me into (more) Royal Gold or Allied Nevada, there’s a 73% chance your favorite son will be conscripted to guard Fort Knox for Derby Week.   You may also lose cash munny.


Further update:  Bot 4,000 sh starter position in Thompson Creek Metals (NYSE: TC) @ $6.06.  

Caution: very volatile.   If you purchase TC you will likely be struck by a meteorite made of pure molybdenum, and that might sting.  Also, you might lose money, quickly.


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PAAS — A Present from the Easter Bunny

This post was supposed to come out yesterday sometime, but I kept losing it to “failed saves,” so the following is a foreshortened version.  

While not yet at the level of a “Jacksonian Core Holding,”  Pan American Silver Corp. (NYSE: PAAS) is my only other silver miner holding besides Silver Wheaton (SLW), even though I believe silver (the metal) has better prospects than even gold right now.  Again, we go back to the overall crappy management of these names to explain my trepidation.  That doesn’t mean an HL or a CDE can’t become  a hot pick when these things really start to move in unison (which I think will happen by this summer).   I just don’t consider them holds for anything more than a swing trade.   PAAS, on the other hand, could see triple digits if the underlying metal takes off as I expect it will.

PAAS is still “baking” here, but I have been accumulating it since the $14’s.   You can see my near term targets on the following daily and  weekly charts, but let it be known I will be holding this one until my silver (and overall PM) thesis is disproven.   Any sales will be money management related only, and likely involve a covered call strategy like I discussed in my UPS post.

PAAS Daily Chart
PAAS Daily Chart


PAAS Weekly Chart
PAAS Weekly Chart


Obligatory Disclosure:  If you insist on pursuing a purchase of PAAS, it’s highly likely you will wake up one morning encased in a magenta Easter egg, Franz Kafka-style.    If that’s not warning enough, well — you may lose money, too.


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TSO is Hot!

And not just the Ozzie Rahpoe-tah (sic)!   Take a look at Jake’s favorite refinary play, and one of my “top ten” holdings:


Note how it’s just today breaking out of that medium term triangle?  It’s also continuing yesterday’s move above the intermediate-term 61.8% fibonacci retrace line (drawn from the 8/25/08 high to the 11/21/08 low) at $14.86, and has also show good support at the short term 38.2% fib (again, “strong”) retrace line  (drawn on this chart from the 11/21/05 low to the 02/16/09 recent high). 

 I’d be  more comfortable if the volume were a bit better than it is this morning, but there is some precedent on “low volume sneak ups” for this stock if you look back at December’s move on the above chart.   

That December move-up also nicely illustrates how a stock can move quickly up once it breaks out of a congestion zone.   As you can see, TSO will be leaving it’s current congestion zone at about  $16.30 or so, which will coincide quite neatly with the 200-day EMA currently at $16.49.

The more cautious will want to wait until we break above that congestion, and the 200-day is my first “check off” where I will be selling covered calls at least.   However, given the moderation in crack spreads and the supply-demand issues in the gasoline distribution channels entering the summer driving months, I think I am reasonable in targetting the recent highs of $19.00  as a result of any “congestion relief.”   That could come very quickly, so keep an eye open.    As well, I am targetting the 38.2% long term fib retrace (drawn from the 10/26/07 highs to recent November ’08 lows) level of $28.65 as my “major exit point” for this pick. 

Disclosure:  I am very long this stock, and warn you that any purchase of it may signal your local Congressman that you are “a-okay” with a new refinery project in your postage stamp backyard.   Oh, and you may lose money.


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Agro-vate the Farmer: Greetings, Mr. Anderson

Humid in here isnt it, Mr. Anderson?
Humid in here isn't it, Mr. Anderson?

No, The Andersons, Inc. (NASD: ANDE)   (PPT: “Buy”) is not your next door neighbors’ lemonade stand gone corporate, but rather a supplier and servicer to the farm industry, with a number of different agricultural lines.   I ran across them last night while going over some of my old charts, and they look to be making something of a comeback here.   I imagine they got hammered like they did as a result of the ethanol backlash, as they had made ethanol services a large part of their marketing pitch back when that was the cool thing to do.   Ah well — live by the corn likker jug, die by the corn likker jug, that’s what Pappy always used to say.  


Note that this chart is still in “setting up” phase, as price has not yet escaped the “zone of torpor” boxed by the price-volume bar metric above.   That said, I believe the “Moo stox” will be starting to heat up again with the glimmer of the inflationary hortex on the horizon,  so it’s better we put this one on our watch screen sooner rather than later.  

Strong volume is one indicator of possible future activity that I find particularly useful, and ANDE traded over 2.8x its average volume yesterday.  It was still above average today even with a decent pullback.  As well, the stock has managed to leap above its 8, 20 and 50-day EMA’s in a single bound, and was able to stay well above those markers even after today’s pullback.   That action is encouraging, with the caveat that it would not be unusual to see ANDE  pull back all the way to its 50-day EMA ($14.56) with additional “digestion” in the next few days. 

  I don’t think that will do any damage to our “of interest” thesis, however, as I believe that unless the huge volume spike was only a fluke, we will see a continuation out of the congestion zone, and perhaps “dance the jimmy” all the way to the 200-day EMA at $22+.

Trade-wise, I think our best bet is to wait until ANDE makes it out over yesterday’s close ($16.19) to take the lesser risk shot at this one.   Besides getting us in closer to the top of the congestion zone, $16.20 just happens to be the residence of the short term 61.8% Fibonacci retrace line— my strongest fib for support/resistance.  Funny how these things work out, no?   Again, no, not really.  

Also important — earnings are scheduled to be released on May 6th, so we may have a nice little run here where we can play amidst the “Sentient Programs” and then either hit “the EMP button,” or stay on, depending on our risk tolerance and affinity for Wachowski Brothers metaphors.   If the market holds up, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mr. Anderson make a nice move to the 200-day EMA along with every other beaten down bird in the House of Morpheus.

So keep Mr. Anderson in mind tomorrow and next week, especially if you feel the urge to take the blue pill at some point whilst consulting with your wisest urinal shadows…


[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhbMB-Ca6a0 450 300]


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UPS Update: Doh!

Surprise!  Looks like UPS missed rather badly. Amazing how it was coincident with that failure at significant resistance, yesterday, no?

Not really, actually.   I find that if you take the position that the market is always smarter than you, you’ll be in a much more mentally secure position as a trader and even investor.  Think of the market as that extra-special clever friend, who doesn’t mind seeing you make money if you’re careful, diligent and valorous, but who also takes delight in your being hurled from ninth floor parapets onto the rocky shoals below.   Not very much unlike this guy….

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWS8Mg-JWSg 450 300]


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