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Scrappy day today for our embattled $HUI, but one that may prove a turning in the match for many of its components, especially in the silver section.   First, today’s $HUI chart doesn’t look all that different than last Friday’s… save for one important difference that should be readily apparent:

It may not be so readily apparent to you, but I have four kids, and am, de facto, already a parent.

So too, one of the $HUI’s components seems to also hearing the clarion call of support.  This weekly chart of SLW shows both the support zone we are approaching as well as the egregious levels of oversold-edness (sic) that we have not encountered since the Summer of Recovery, way back in ’09.

Other smaller silver players showed similar verve today, including EXK and MVG.  If it’s true that the selling is done in the PM’s, my warrant is that the proof will show up in the silver miners first, as they were the most bloodied in the recent “adjustment.”   In fact, if I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d look for fellow mojo stock, AG to join his brothers tomorrow.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UjsXo9l6I8 450 300]

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It’s probably a good thing that I didn’t post last Thursday or Friday, as I don’t think any of my advice would have been either financially profitable or mentally soothing to any of you.

The reason I’d have been no use to you is I would have had you stand still like wooden statues carved by lonely puppeteers looking for companionship and later, kindling.  We are all, after all, kindling, and the important point is to make life more affable for those around you, beginning with your family and radiating out to the farthest reaches of humanity and the Animal Kingdoms.

It’s no cliche to admit that it often takes money to achieve such goals, and what we are doing here is trying to help you retain and build your allotted sums, thereby making you a more useful engine — in the full Sodoresque sense — to yourself and your neighbors.   In that vein it’s just as important to protect principal in times of decline as it is to maximize returns in times of advantage.

Which brings us to tonight’s — and perhaps this week’s and month’s — most important chart.   You’ve seen me put great store in the Amex Gold Bug Index — known as the $HUI (pronounced “Huey” in these parts) — with regard to the state of gold and silver stocks as a whole.  I believe this “unhedged” miner index shows us the best state of the gold and silver stock universe, and frankly, I think we are on the razor’s edge at this juncture.  Attend to the daily chart:

As you can see, we are well below the 200-day EMA (almost 7% now) and, more important, we closed just a tad below the long term support line.   Given that support lines are not “exact science” and that traders like to use them to scare out tech watchers to collect easy cash, I’m not yet convinced that the above spells “DOOM” in capital letters.

For instance, we toyed with $495 (the real line, in my opinion) all day on Friday and yet closed above it on Friday, despite strength in the dollar.  Also, the 5-day  RSI (top stochastic) is showing a positive divergence over the last three days.

But let’s not kid ourselves, huh?  If we cannot stay above this long term support at $495, the next stop is $475, and quite possibly, $450.

So let’s keep our eyes open, shall we?  You should be at anywhere from 25%-50% of your core right now, depending on your risk tolerance, if you are following my long term plan.  Therefore, this is either an opportunity to add some for a turn to at least $520 on the $HUI, or to shorten the leash even more for a likely drop the same measure to the negative — at $470-75.

Hang in there, brighter days still remain ahead of us.

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Perfect Place for “Multiple Sammitches”
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As I mentioned last comment (previous post), I’m on the road again.  I might even grab Fleremy tonight for a Cavalcade of Past Haunts Tour.

Does Dorian’s Red Hand even exist anymore?  Howabout Skibar?  Anyway, no matter.  The point of today’s post is that I remain hunkered down, eating sammitches, preferably of the pastrami-variety, monster-portion-sized, a la the Carnegie Deli.

By now you should all be in the 25-40% of “core” range, depending on your risk preferences, unless you are H50, in which case you have converted everything into cash, including house and lawn mower, rolled said cash into a Yuban coffee can, and hidden said can deep within the moist jungles of Kauai.

As I said, we all have our risk tolerances.

Today, I’m watching with popcorn in hand as Bernanke hectors Congress for his magic water pistol and the Greeks turn their tourist trade into so much half chewed souvlaki-on-a-cheese wheel.   As a result, the bizarro dollar continues to strengthen even as gold and silver march up along side it.

One has to win, and I hate to admit that I think it will likely be the hideous dollar, if only because we are owed a serious bounce here, and we’ve yet to get it.

So for now, hunkering is appropriate, but don’t be afraid to throw a scalp out there every now and again.   After all, what’s the market good for if you can’t play around in times like these?

Best to you all.

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First tip off to a problem? No Jennifer Tilly in sight…

This saga began when Mrs. Gint “won” a silent auction… Now, if you are in a business where you auction things for a living—or if you happen to be a big Game Theory Economics geek– then you know about something called “The Winner’s Curse.” The skinny of it is if you have won a competitive auction, it’s pretty likely you’ve paid too much.

For this tale, we shall file that last under “Fugging A Right You Did!”

Our primary problem was Mrs. Gint had bid with insufficient information – a frequent error that often leads to the Winner’s Curse, as illustrated in cases of willy-nilly Chinese burrito stock purchasing and alcohol-inspired shotgun marriages.

You see, my wife had her heart set on checking out the new French Lick, Indiana casino resort that one of her friends had raved to her about. Mrs. Gint is all about the “spa experience” – from hot stone Rolfing to deep-mud Brasilian manicuring — and this French Lick resort not only had the original historic West Baden Springs Spa element (famed from the 19th century on for its healing mineral waters and baths), but also promised biking, hiking and horse-back riding—activities dear to the heart of my Kentucky belle. The real cherry, however, and what had elicited all the buzz down in Lotus-ville Hen circles, was that the entire facility had very recently been given a massively expensive facelift. Mr. William Cook, the now-deceased medical device tycoon of Cook Medical, put almost half a billion of his own dough into reviving this historic area, and apparently, his overinvestment had been well employed.

Those of you who live in the area have probably already guessed the nature of my troubles. For those who are not familiar, however, let me point out that the state of Indiana has distributed a number of casino permits over the last 20 or so years… only the most recent has been to my belle’s targeted destination in Larry Bird’s home town.
What’s more, the state started into the casino business with the very low “toe-in” class euphemistically referred to as “river boat gaming.” Not actually functioning boats, these barnacles still dot our Ohio river coast at various godforsaken embarkation points, thanks to Indiana politicians’ belief that calling a crappy casino a “boat” will somehow limit said institution’s size and influence on the gambling crazed public. Need I even mention that as soon as those same pols saw the cash coming off these oversized sardine cans, they said “Would it be cool if we just called them boats, cemented them to the river docks and let them gradually grow into mini-Vegases on the river?”

Part of the problem of the above noted “expansion” was that many of these unsightly river-wights added hotels and “spa facilities,” the description of which might confuse the unfamiliar prospect as to their true nature: riverside robbery dens for the discount cigarette set.

So I ask… can you blame Mrs. Gint for not knowing her way around the casino resort heirarchy? Or for perhaps having one too many bourbon and cokes the night of that fateful charity event? Or for not being able to parse one fake-Ancient Greek casino name from another? I know I can’t…

Though I certainly came close this past weekend…
(to be continued…)

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Nothing much moved today on the PM side as the market collectively held it’s breath waiting for The Bernank’s do-nothing address. That speech, in turn, resulted in a massive shrug of the shoulders after market close today.

There’s some chop back and forth and further attempts upon my person in the form of certain “Chicken-playing” PM stocks (ahem, AAU and EXK, damn you!). These stocks attempt to force me off the road by driving straight at me at 110 mph, whilst drunk on Old Crowe whiskey.

I will not be moved by such crude tactics, and I continue to beleive there will be a bounce in the metal sectors collectively. Action in the minor metals like palladium and platinum are betraying this new direction, and even copper is showing stubborn signs of staying about $4.00.

In the meantime, dollar strength is seemingly being abetted by a weak Ozzie Dollah and Canuckistanian Looney. That too simply cannot be the basis for a dollar rip, so sorry. Not for the long term at least.

So just check yesterday’s chart for tomorrow’s action, as nothing looks very different. On another note, you may want to inspect the FAS-mobile tomorrow as well, as it looks like banks may be ready to roll once again.

Best to you all.
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Very odd… there is an embedded “html” tag in the “HTML” view of the text box… Could this be what is vexing me? (testing…)

Ah! success. Now, for step 2, I shall try to switch back to “visual view” and see if I can “update” from that screen… (testing)

Brilliant… now for step three

I shall attempt to insert a silly photo, via html code screen… (switching) okay here goes:

Okay… that took two trys… I had to actually retype the stuff after step two to reclaim. One thing I noticed, Jeremy, is that I no longer get the “allowance” query when I hit the “IMG” button on the HTML dashboard. It just automatically allows me to post the url in the appropriate box. Hmmmm…

Okay, here’s the final test… I am going to attempt to insert a graphic chart from my saved stockcharts files… wish me luck, as this has been the biggest difficulty thus far…

No go on the first try… attempting again….

It went up top I think? Hold on, let’s try to put it in the proper place… I’ll use AG for this one.. the daily:

That may have looked like it worked, but it really didn’t… I had to cut and paste the code to move it below… I promise I will call Jeremy and get this all figured out this weekend folks…
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On other real world functional stuff… someone asked about QRM on the previous post. I would not worry too much about it. Looks like it tested the 50 day again today, but no serious damage. I’m still holding it.

Same goes for my PM hordes. I know Gary the Mountain is preaching another doom move but I don’t see it yet… not with the dollar getting crushed again.

I had an interesting day today… doing what I like to do best… meeting successful business owners and hearing their individual Horatio Alger stories. Last one of the day was near tragic. Sometimes these guys forget they are mortal, and it can get dicey as a result. More on that story this weekend…
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