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Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b8B3Vqupy0U 450 300]

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I’ve watched with some amusement recently as a few here have tried to use every gauge on the submarine dial in order to judge what direction the market is going.   Don’t get me wrong… there are people out there for whom I have enormous respect, and who have studied the markets to a fair-the-well for years, decades even.   Those same people are tying themselves in knots trying to read the latest tea leaf pattern on the bottom of their bone china cup.  They make it so hard, when it need not be, especially given their backgrounds, their educations… their knowledge of just what makes the market move.

Let’s face it folks, the market moves on liquidity.  That said, there are two things affecting liquidity in our U.S. and global markets.  The first is scarcity.  Yes, scarcity.  When I was a pup, in the 90’s, it was not uncommon to see 50 to 60 Initial public Offerings PER MONTH.  Now we are lucky if we get 60 IPO’s in an entire year.   Sarbanes Oxley and Dodd Frank are doing their work, and the private capital markets are filling in the gaping hole left by the public markets’ regulatory sclerosis.  Deals are getting financed and traded entirely on the private side.  Increasingly there are more and more great companies that you will never see as a Joe Six Pack investor, unless you get real wealthy and start investing in private equity limited partnerships.   That’s too bad, but I guess the “good news” is those slimmer pickings make for a more highly bid public market, just on supply and demand criteria alone.

The second and probably more comprehensive goad to liquidity is the loose monetary policy we’ve been “enjoying” since the dot-com crash and 911, and even more so since the Financial Crises (sic) of 2008.   I don’t need to tell you that the dollar has been used and abused for the last ten years, gaining only a brief respite as a “Safety Dance” during the 2008 Meltdown.   Recently, I’ve been calling the dollar’s dolorous decline with pinpoint accuracy (if I do say so m’self).  Look at this highlight reel:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eschewing cycles, I kept only Ben Bernanke and the political importance of 2012 in mind, and came up with this startling conclusion: this should not be a good year for the dollar.

So what should it be a good year for?  Funny you should ask, as I called for a buy on SLW last Friday at about ten cents below it’s actual low of the day.   I don’t plan to make that mistake again, at least not with MAG Silver (MVG).  A lot of my PM charts are showing nice signs here, and MVG’s budding return to society is shown best in this weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily to see where the best place to buy in the next few days will likely be:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to throw the order in at the north end of the range described above and close to that 200-day EMA.  I don’t want to get burned again by a dime like I did last Friday on SLW.  It’s accumulate time again, kids.

Best to you all.

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Please do not take my lack of attendance here as proof that I do not love you.  The truth is, I’ve never left you…

All through my wild days…

My mad existence.  

 I’ll keep my promise, if you keep your distance.

(and scene). 

PS — Anyone who watched WPIX-11 as a kid in Noo Yawk knows that song by heart, if only by dint of it was the only commercial that ever played weekday afternoons between the Brady Bunch and Star Trek.   Ah, teevee, my beloved babysitter!   That’s what’s wrong w. kids these days, btw.  Not enough teevee.

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A quick repair to the dollar charts.  It seems as if old man dollar is trying to ruin everyone’s Mardis Gras by busting a move here, late Monday afternoon.  Problem is, he’s got nowhere to go.   Gold, silver, frankincense and myrhh have all sold down the last couple of days, just in time for the U.S. dollar to finally make it’s last hurrah, and look!  …

Nowhere to go:

 

 You want to fight City Hall run by the Bernank? You might as well try to fight Madonna with Whitney Houston’s Baftub.   Your arms are just too short.  Let’s see… $HUI is just about done cycling down, and the dollar’s got a date with $79.80 or so.  

As far as I’m concerned, you have your instructions.

Best to you all.

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Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

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I don’t generally do the intentionally provocative headline unless I’m trying to get your attention.  And usually, I’m only trying to get your serious attention on the breaking political stuff.  Very rarely do I pound the table on the market picks, unless I think we’ve entered a special “sweet zone” where we should collectively be taking advantage.

I believe this may be one of those times.

Let’s start with the commodity gold ($GOLD) weekly chart to show where it all began last week.  I’m going to use the weeklies on all of these mostly to show the consolidations and the breakouts, and also to show how much room this thing still has to run before it gets RSI oversold.   The gold weekly broke out of a consolidation flag that has been forming since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now let’s look at silver, via the double silver ETF $AGQ, where we are back above that first resistance support line after undergoing an RSI-divergence (again) since September:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last, let’s have a look at the gold bug index $HUI which shows us what’s going on with the major miners.  Note that we’ve been in a consolidating channel for almost 17 months now, and we have taken off from the most recent bottoming with a strong weekly push:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think that failed channel breakout from early September that has now consolidated into a flag pattern within the larger horizontal channel means that Baby $HUI is readying itself for a final breakout to the next level.  Again, the abundant room left in the RSI and the other stochastics also give me some comfort here.

Now there’s a lot of room to make money in a cornucopia of names here, and– again– I’m showing you the weeklies to indicate that there’s time left for you here, especially in the traditionally strong names like AG, EXK, SLW, ANV, AUY, and even the larger players like GG and ABX.  If you are not in any of them yet, then I would certainly make sure I had a position in SIL, GDX and GDXJ in order to cover the industry as completely as possible.

As for my favorites right now, I’ll give you a couple that I think you can buy “rain or shine” tomorrow because they’ve got so much “mo” behind them right now.  The first is my long time favorite and Jacksonian, RGLD:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Again, there’s just so much power in that lift off the floor.  You can wait, of course, to see if we break out of that triangle, but I think that volume and price action from last week are indicating that we may get out of it as early as this week.

My other “immediate” pick is Alexco Resource Co (AXU), which I have not mentioned in at least a year.  Alexco, however is betraying a consolidation pattern almost as toothsome as the one AUY broke out of late last year.  As you can see, this one’s bumping it’s head on the hypotenuse ceiling of that triangle.  I think with anything close to the volume of last week, that ceiling is history.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enjoy, and partake, if you like.  Despite the temporary winds against us right now, I don’t think we’ve seen an opportunity like this in almost 18 months.  Make hay while that sun still shines.

Best to you all.

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Monument Circle, Indianapolis, Complete with Super-Classy, Monster Roman Numeral Decor

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The precious metal sector has gone HAM, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here these last few days.  I’m not a big crower, as I take the “That’s Life” Sinatra-version view of this crazy stock picking game.  In fact, if anything I’m ticked that I got caught with only 60% exposure to my favourite stocks in the PM sector, and having ditched my two internally leveraged stocks (AGQ and NUGT) only the day before this anti-grapist surge.  That said, my port is still well above even my Seven Samurai picks (currently at +11.4%) as of the first of the year, so things are good.

I also think I called the dollar top to within pennies (one of my predictions was that the dollar would fail at $81.50).   I think it has a bit to go, even as it may take a rest here to bounce on the support that has now become resistance (#2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we may get a bit of a pause here, but not much.  I will be adding on pullbacks and all the usual names will be good.

Let me take this opportunity, then, to point out my two “A” and “B” best PM stocks for the current moment.  I’ll do “B” first and admit right off that Banro — BAA is in fact, a Congo miner.  I make an exception, at least temporarily, to my rule about not taking too much political risk by noting that it controls over 2500 square kilometers of rich African resource land, and that it was incorporated (and still resides) in Toronto, Canada in 1951.  That’s a lot of embedded expertise and a lot of paid off pols in the Congo.  Consider it barrier to entry.

In any case it’s the chart I like, and when it gets back over $5, it’s going places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yamana (AUY), my second attractive Toronto-based player, seemingly breaks my rules because of its size (over $12 bn market cap), pointing out that it may be more an acquiror than acquired.  I like it’s benign Latin American exposure, however (Mexico, Brasilia, Colombia, Chile, etc.) , and think that it’s got one of the more promising charts (this one a weekly)  thanks to a long term breakout from a lengthy consolidation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll be trying to take these two in the next couple of days at $4.80 and $16.70 respectively, if I can.   My best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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