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 I’m just not certain I can take it any longer.

You know I have a theory.  The theory goes like this (and I admit, up front, it’s far fetched)…  Sometime during the Cold War, certain powers that be in the U.S. and Europe decided, in the name of keeping the West free, to innoculate their states periodically with a nasty dose of tyrannical gov’t .   They did this knowing that electoral politics would eventually usher in a balancing freedom-oriented policy regime that would relax the tyrannical restraints and allow natural markets to “flush out” the body politic as it were, and restore the “classical” economy to it’s normal value-creating state of spreading prosperity.

A lot of people think that first post-War inoculation shot came with Jimmy Carter’s inept single term.  However, I believe Carter was really just the capper of a particularly loathsome trio that started with Lyndon Baines Johnson and was followed directly by Richard “Wage /Price Freeze” Nixon and his milquetoast second veep, Gerald Ford.  Those three created a cycle of war and inflation (Nixon took us off the gold standard for good as well) and stupid economy gumming regulation that culminated in the body politic crying Uncle for a respite.

In that regard, Reagan only had to do a few things, just as Romney will only have to do a few in January of 2013.  Like Reagan did, Romney will only have to undo some of the more illogical (and unrealistically ideological) regulatory burdens thrown up over the last six years since the Pelosi-Reid wagon rolled out of the 2006 electoral winner’s box.   Too, Romney will have to dismantle Obamacare, and that might get sticky, considering it’s tar-baby-like, multi-thousand page, unfunded legal status.   Tax reform will also take some hard work and many late night battles over ideology and dollars and cents (sense?)

But our economy is a funny thing.  It’s self-repairing for one thing.  In fact, ironically, all it really needs is for the beatings to cease for morale to really improve.  Everyone who ever got past elementary economics knows that does not mean blaming regulatorily-enforced high carbon fuel prices on “speculators” instead of on a police-state-level blind ideology that won’t take even the most elementary steps (Keystone is not just a great light beer, Mr. President) toward self-preservation.  Smart citizens — and even not so smart, but just not so readily blinded citizens — eventually grasp the simple basics of supply & demand, and from that can intuit where the power to manipulate markets really resides.

But the good news is that such dunce-cap buffoonery will soon be over.  The sleights of hand, the excuses and the kabuki grow wearisome for all but the most ardent of clinging acolytes.  The counter-scams and red herrings grow less comic and more maudlin.  Soon gone.

Soon.

Gone.

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SLW under $30, RGLD under $60 and EXK under $9.00 are birthday presents like not even Midas’s daughters received on the days of their betrothal.  If I get ten seconds of meeting-less, conference call-less bliss tomorrow, I may even pick up a bail of in the money options.

Bless you for your patience with me, and with our economy, ever resilient.

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I can finally utter a sigh of relief as I settle into a relaxing half week or so of sun and stupor on the Treasure Coast.  Tomorrow, I sunbathe and wrangle with bull sharks in aquamarine waters!

HA!   Just kidding, actually I’ve got two conference calls tomorrow morning and then another 8-12 noon job on Thursday.  Then when I get back Sunday evening, I can pack my bags for all this scheiss to start all over again, this time not in the Orange Grove State, or with any mai-tais to accommodate.

Listen pals, I know I’ve begged your mercy before, but this time I think I might be straining your good will to it’s failing point.   Listen, I know something’s wrong when my only knowledge of the public markets is via reading my e-mail blasts from Chess, RC and Jeremy (The PPT ratings).  I get all kinds of garbage through all manner of metric, but those three have been my anchor these last weeks.   Meanwhile, I’ve done very little in my own portfolio — perhaps out of stubbornness, but perhaps also because I believe that the miners are so beaten down in relation to the price of gold and silver that I think this may be the best buying opportunity I’ve witnessed since the March 2009 recovery.

Yes, you heard that right.  Every metric I look at shows vast undervaluation of the precious miners.   If you never touched these things, now is the time my friend.  I am even thinking of looking at the options market here.   Today’s divergence in the PM’s versus the overall down market may have finally revealed the truth about the liquidity that cannot be denied in these names.

And somehow, it all makes bizarre sense.   Listen — we just had a deal go out that had more bids on it than anything I’ve ever been associated with in my career, and yes, that includes my time in the white shoe world of the Fortune 500-exclusive IB’s of Neuva York.  It’s a shark frenzy out there in the private markets ladies and germs… those dudes have capital– shitte tonnes of it —  and they want to spend.  You think its twin in the public market is really going to puke it all down here?  Good luck, pal.

BAA, you sick fuggers.  BAA.  Then RGLD, SLW and UPS, and MON.  At least that.

Wish me luck, and if you cannot stomach that, then wish me survival.

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The Louisville Cards went down to the infamous Junior NBA Team on Saturday evening and I have only recently discarded my widow’s weeds of mourning.  I have not neglected you, however, as my heart and my long term picks remain with you, even when my corporeal presence is otherwise occupied.

As for today, it seems the U.S. dollar is doing it’s usual plungerooni below $79 again.  When it breaks $79.60 with vigour (sic), please call me.  Until then I will be eyes forward on all of my “X” play metal picks.   Of particular interest are the siblings XRA and it’s offshoot XG (or is it the other way ’round? No matter).    XRA is currenlty up 5.5% at $2.89, and XG is up over 3.6% at $6.26.

My other X-play is on the silver side — EXK, my old favorite, up 3.8% at $9.86 this day.    For lotto type picks, I continue to recommend the accumulation of BAA and AAU, both also up today to varying degrees.  

Last but not least, let’s not forget the rare earths.  I know they are frustrating, but you will kick yourself if they take off without you.  Besides MCP and REE (the more grandfatherly of the bunch), I continue to nibble on AVL and QRM.   As always, remain cautious.  Any rebound in the dollar will negate all this good stuff, and signal us to lighten our loads.

Best to you all.

 

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Unless you are living the hermit’s life, under a rock within a deep dark Paleozoic cave, you are aware that next Saturday’s NCAA Final Four College Basketball Championship will feature two Kentucky rivals in a battle to determine who will represent the state in the National Championship game. Despite being a huge fan of the (currently) nine-point underdog Cardinals, I am experiencing Zen-like calm and good feeling.

You see, like with my “What Me Worry?” New York Giants earlier this year, I never expected the Cards to get past the second round of the Big East Tournament, never mind the far more expansive NCAA Tourney.  But like my Superbowl winning Giants, the Cards have considerably outperformed my expectations.  Using a mixture of psychotically wearying man/zone defense and pure will power, they have won their last eight games in a row, taking not only the Big East Title (like eventual NCAA winners UConn did in 2011), but also beating all reasonable odds to arrive in the Final Four this weekend.

They took out Michigan State like they were a bunch of soft muppet Goldman clients, not the eventual Tournament Champion I had slated the Spartans for in my personal brackets.  They followed that win by beating an absolutely on-fire, can’t-miss-three-point-shooting Florida Gator team seemingly through psychological intimidation alone.  It was truly miraculous, and I am now happy to the point where my inborn Irish sense of karma has me looking out for fast-approaching meteorites.

Because I can’t lose now, really.  No one expected my Cards to do this well, just like no one expected the Giants to get into the playoffs in early December.  Or to beat Green Bay or San Francisco (and not have to play New Orleans again!).  Therefore I am playing with house money right now…

And guess who has to win it all this year or be seen as ultimate chokers?  Do you think maybe it’s that team with the five “sure fire” top ten draft picks? The Blue people from down the road, east of us, in little Lexington?

Can you feel the warmth of my smile from here, my friends?

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On a more serious topic, I was also  going to write about the possible Civil War brewing with regard to the Supreme Court’s coming decisions regarding the Commerce Clause and its relation to Obamacare.   However, I don’t wish to spoil my current mellow mood, so I will hold off, probably until tomorrow.  Suffice it to say — for now — that this may be the most important Supreme Court decision since the New Deal Era (error?).

More tomorrow.  Let tonight be about the (relative) innocence of college hoops.

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As for the stocks and other investments this blog is supposed to be about, well, I felt good enough about the state of the dollar and the silver market to add a significant portion of SSRI to my portfolio.   I think it’s inexpensive here, frankly, and likely trade bait at some point.   That was all I added however, as I am still bound by caution here as we approach the end of the month and the Ides of May.

My best to you all.

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A Short Introduction To Louisville Hoop, Circa 2012:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9UI18nq6J4 450 300]

 

Enjoy!

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I just got home and it looks like the golds/silvers had a crappy day, but it also looks like the dollar is falling tonight while the commodity complex, and especially earl, are rallying.  Oversold and out of favor are my two favorite paradigms, but I’m not telling you what to do if you are nervous here.

Me? I’m gonna do like Slim and ride the bomb.  I’ve got meetings all over again first thing tomorrow so I won’t be able to look in via anything else but Crackberry til mid afternoon.  In the  meantime, if you’d like to discuss things, open-thread style — and that means anything — I declare this blog a Mario Savio Free Speech Zone.

Have at it!

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Classic Slim:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w36z7XnwOM 450 300]

 

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Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

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Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

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