But really not a horrendous day for the Jacksonians, which gives one pause, no? 

Now the PM’s are resuming their slide, and I can’t help but think it’s “of a piece” with the Treasury’s desperate need to sell bonds here.  Again, we continue to see opportunity, as I think it’s unlikely that gold will fall much below $890-ish on a per oz. scale, and I would be shocked to see it claw back to $850.  In the event it does, however, I will be manning the one man oompah-band, complete with bass drum, polka accordian and egregiously long slide trombone in order to advertise to the world — via drum majorette high kicks — that this is the time to back up the truck and buy.  

In the meantime, I will continue to convert my more esoteric picks (non-Jacksonian) and hedges of large positions into cash for additional rodent-like hordings of shiny metals.   In fact, should gold break $900 again, I will “do my part” and for the first time since 2001 start buying physical again.   If the Comex geeks want to “play that,” Homey will be obliged.

I have included a “weighted return” in today’s review (from yesterday’s close), so you can see how much each individual position actually returns.  As you can see, the actual $150,000 original investment is up a little more than the “pick alone” number, thanks to cashing out on a few loser, and thereby having them a lesser portion of the portfolio.   As a result, I will likely add to some Jacksons soon with the cash and hedge amounts ( [[TZA]] and Cash are equal to almost $23K at this point — or 14% of the portfolio) when the time is right.   That may be soon, fwiw.

Name/			%	Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	6-Jul	7-Jul	Change	Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$            29.67	$        29.96	0.98%	$      18,091.79	0.11%		Still trending.
EGO	8.75	8.79	0.46%	8,236.23	0.02%		Hanging on, relative strength today
GDX	36.94	36.51	-1.16%	11,050.24	-0.08%		Hanging at 50% retracement
GLD	90.76	90.71	-0.06%	10,432.43	0.00%		Relative strength
IAG	9.93	9.99	0.60%	12,318.13	0.04%		One of my strongest golds
MON	73.26	72.62	-0.87%	4,259.24	-0.02%		Down not so bad, considering.
NRP	20.70	20.38	-1.55%	4,229.97	-0.04%		Sold 1/2 on break of $20.50
PAAS	17.83	17.71	-0.67%	10,636.64	-0.04%		Expected to test $17 again.
RGLD	39.04	39.19	0.38%	10,828.96	0.02%		Oversold, $38 a possibility today.
SLV	13.10	12.89	-1.60%	10,471.16	-0.10%		Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40)
SLW	7.75	7.80	0.65%	7,576.43	0.03%		Support @ $7.50
SSRI	18.20	17.91	-1.59%	10,418.85	-0.10%		$17 likely goal.
TBT	50.94	50.19	-1.47%	9,998.01	-0.09%		Waiting for bond market to resolve
TC	10.07	9.82	-2.48%	4,606.66	-0.07%		Could target 50 day ($9.00)
TCK	16.88	16.15	-4.32%	10,738.03	-0.28%		Gave back most of prior day.
TZA	24.34	25.86	6.24%	5,209.53	0.20%		Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$          13.44	$      17.69	0.01%	17,694.95	0.00%		Increased on 1/2 sale of NRP
AVG (daily)			-0.38%	$ 166,797.25	-0.40%
AVG (monthly)			-1.50%	Actual
AVG (inception)			10.80%	Return	11.20%

Comments »

 

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] is the strongest of the litter, here, and most of the precious still have work to do.  The silvers in particular are giving me agita, but only in that they are making me wait.

I bot some more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] today as it tested its 38.2% fib, and [[PAAS]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] had similar (though not as severe) pullbacks today.   Seasonally, we’ve entered into a slow period in the PM’s, but I am just not willing to sell anything right now, given the precariousness of the bond and dollar situation.   Sure, we could have more strength in both, but I just keep looking at the amount they have to sell this week (hat tip to Scum Bucket), and… well, let’s just say hard money is looking a lot more appetizing, and I’m getting ready to reload on more [[TBT]] . 

Of my non-Jackson’s Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] was actually a gold miner that was up today, and I’ve already mentioned that I increased my position in Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .   Pretty soon I’m going to look like a gypsy Queen with gold and silver (and a touch of platinum, though I’ve yet to add to my starter position in [[PTM]] yet) dangling off my fingers, toes, ears and dreadlocks.

But that’s what our major theme is going to be here, folks, for the duration, so get used to it.  Soon, you’ll thank me for my persistent nagging.  In fact, it’s quite likely that someday, you’ll be adorning your children in “just 4 Kids” NY Giant paraphenelia in my honour (sic), and sending them off to college with tuition bills paid for in gold doubloons and pieces of eight.

I have every confidence.   All I need is the patience of a Bengal tiger in the deep brush on the annual Marlon Perkins’ Eat a Safari Tourist Day.  

Non PM picks I like, if you’re interested, include [[BIOS]] and Health Grades, Inc. [[HGRD]] here.   Best to you all.

Name/			%
Ticker	2-Jul	6-Jul	Change		Comments
ANDE	$                 30.89	$               29.67	-3.95%		Bounced off 20 day, sell on break $28.90
EGO	9.25	8.75	-5.41%		Closed a cent over the 50-day ($8.74)
GDX	38.31	36.94	-3.58%		Gapped down, doji’d, 200 day $35.94
GLD	91.25	90.76	-0.54%		POG $925 headed for $900?
IAG	10.34	9.93	-3.97%		Bounced off 50 day, patience, a keeper
MON	71.96	73.26	1.81%		Bounced as I suspected, but vol. sucks
NRP	20.77	20.70	-0.34%		Still oversold, but hanging in.
PAAS	18.22	17.83	-2.14%		Looking weak, still.
RGLD	41.52	39.04	-5.97%		Below 200 day EMA, looking weak
SLV	13.16	13.10	-0.46%		Oversold, but 200 week beckons (12.40)
SLW	8.40	7.75	-7.74%		Closed penny over the 38.2% retrace, I bot.
SSRI	18.79	18.20	-3.14%		Doji’d but could seek $17 one more time
TBT	50.73	50.94	0.41%		Looks ready to make a move
TC	10.36	10.07	-2.80%		Could target 50 day ($9.00)
TCK	16.09	16.88	4.91%		Chinese investment give a pop.
TZA	23.63	24.34	3.00%		Portfolio saver again, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$               13.44	$              13.44	0.01%		Same
AVG (daily)			-1.76%
AVG (monthly)			-1.14%
AVG (inception)			11.26%

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Something about today’s low volume isn’t really convincing me today. Perhaps I’ll be shown the fool, I dunno. I do know the dollar is still shaky here with [[UUP]] having a tough time reclaiming the ever important $24.00 mark, and DXY only about fifty cents north of $80. Until the currency firms, I’m not going to be doing any “panic Jaeger bombs” in Danny’s basement.

I will remain in the defensive today, even as certain Jacksonian’s thrive. Our newest addition Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] benefits today from a weekend announced Chinese Gov’t investment, which shows that the Red Chinese are more Jacksonian than the Red Democrats running our Fed and Fisc right now. What irony, no? Also, [[TBT]] is up today, which gives me pause with regard to the Armegeddon scenarios as well. One would think the [[TLT]] would be up today given the dire portents afoot, no? But it’s not. Also, the hedge [[TZA]] is serving its purpose again today.

As a result of my skepticism, in true Costanza fashion, I am taking advantage of the worse wounded Jackson today — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — which has a intermediate term (10/25/08 lows to 6/4/09 highs) 38.2% fib retrace line at $7.74. Our lows today were $7.72, and we are now back at $7.74 as I type this. I bot another 2k at $7.82 all the same. I also got another 2k of Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] at $2.88 as I continue to believe this name will show M&A related relative strength as it has been.

As ever the caveats are in place, especially with SLW — for which I have an unnatural obsession. Purchase of either of these — especially today — will cause your Lance Armstrong “Live Strong” bullshit rubber bands to tighten in the sun, rendering your hands useless clubs for the duration.

_____________

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    [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MXiUzCl9As 450 300]

Today I spent much of my “holiday”  (official, not actual) working on my bocce court in the blazing Southern sun.  Let me say that it’s days like this that give one an appreciation for manual labour (sic), though no avocation for it, let me assure you.

Know first that this bocce court is actually a 2+ year old “birthday present” from my loving wife, who — in a moment of true inspiration — thought that a bocce court would recall for me both fond memories of New York and my then-recently departed father– who though an Irishman through and through, loved the game like no other.  I was less enthusiastic, having a natural aversion to yard work of any kind, and this was looking more like “yard project” — a far more grim prospect.

The good woman persisted however.  We have a relatively large backyard, and she figured it would fit nicely at the far end, back by the willow trees.   As you might expect, this all ended up in the nightmarish category of  “never ending project,” where I’ve played the roles of designer, architect, general contractor, and — most recently — landscape engineer.

Mr first problem was that there was a dearth of Italian carpenters in my locale.   Well, “dearth” is a bit of a euphemism… actually, there were none.  There’s a restaurant downtown that has a bocce court, but I think they imported the guys who built it — a middle of the night operation.  What’s more,  the materials called for in the on-line plans we’d procured called for oyster shells and other exotic ingredients not readily available at the local Home Depot.   My loving bride would not be thwarted however, and she found a willing contractor who claimed he’d have no problem following our guidelines.

Never believe a contractor who says that kind of thing, okay?  They always have a problem, somewhere.  This one had all kinds of trouble grading my yard to a flat enough plane to lay out the 60′ court.   Three times he had to come in with the backhoe.   My two year old (at the time) loved it, at least.   After that, everything was “special supervision” on a Weekend Warrior basis– for the love of all green currency and compound interest.

So we finally got the court laid out and the sand, gravel and finally red brick dust (my secret ingredient to replace the “oyster shells” the online plan called for.  Note: I’ve never played bocce on oyster shells, that must be some kind of freaking West Florida bocce or something) placed within the 60 ‘x 10′ two by six pegged planks.   I was the one who personally laid down the brick dust,  after it was deposited by the dumptruck, btw.   I would trust no one else with it.  The old highball throwing Eyetals from Carroll Gardens would’ve been proud of my zen-like focus.

It was a beautiful thing up until the first major rains.   This is when I noted that “the ease of drainage” promised in my plans was a pile of horse.   The only thing that drained easily was my brickdust, down the side of the hill, out of a gaping hole carved by the rain on the lower slope of our planed lower yard.

So that’s been my Spring project this year – re-graveling and then shoring up my bocce court with various landscaping fascia, including, most recently, massive bricks of some unknown ground composite material.  I finished the last of it today, much to my lumbars’ chagrin.   My neighbors only chuckle knowingly at my Quixotic efforts and then go back to their more red-neckish pursuits of “corn-hole” (I do not jest) and deep fried turkey leg gnawing.

Tomorrow, however, we will have our annual Jakegint’s Dad Fourth of July Tournament,  along with Son #2’s 12th birthday.   God and my lower back willing, I will dazzle the locales with my ball curling prowess and it will be all worth it. 

God bless America and the Eyetalians who braved the cold Atlantic and  Ellis Island to bring us the perfect summer ale drinking sport.  Salud, and a Happy Fourth to you all. 

_______________________

Here are Wednesday and Thursday’s Jackson Port looks.  Nothing especially egrgegious save MONster, which I may have to cut completely loose upon a break of $70.   As you recall, I’ve a half position right now, and I think it’s so oversold right now, that no bounce here means extreme trouble, and therefore a recommended disposal.  Gold looks like it’s holding up here, which, as I’ve mentioned,  I believe means good things for silver as well.  The non precious metals seem strongest of all.  See my notes for further comment.  

Name/			%		%
Ticker	30-Jun	1-Jul	Change	2-Jul	Change		Comments
ANDE	$           29.94	$      31.34	4.68%	$        30.89	-1.44%		Still riding the 8-day EMA like a champ
EGO	8.95	9.17	2.46%	9.25	0.87%		Up, but on low volume.
GDX	37.82	39.41	4.22%	38.31	-2.79%		Low volume, just below the 50 day EMA
GLD	91.18	92.39	1.33%	91.25	-1.23%		Ditto,  POG just under $930.
IAG	10.12	10.65	5.24%	10.34	-2.91%		Bounced off 20 day EMA (10.06)
MON	74.34	73.20	-1.53%	71.96	-1.69%		Totally oversold, but sell <70 .
NRP	21.01	20.97	-0.19%	20.77	-0.95%		Ridicluously oversold, but sell < 20.50
PAAS	18.33	18.86	2.89%	18.22	-3.39%		Back in congestion zone.
RGLD	41.69	42.43	1.78%	41.52	-2.14%		200 day at $39.67
SLV	13.38	13.55	1.27%	13.16	-2.88%		Bot AGQ @ $39.20 yesterday
SLW	8.24	8.55	3.76%	8.40	-1.75%		Closed right on the 200 day EMA
SSRI	18.75	19.07	1.71%	18.79	-1.47%		Close below 200 day EMA
TBT	50.92	51.06	0.27%	50.73	-0.65%		Still haven’t bot back yet… soon.
TC	10.22	10.38	1.57%	10.36	-0.19%		Still strong, above 20 day EMA
TCK	15.94	16.78	5.27%	16.09	-4.11%		Closed right on the 20 day EMA
TZA	22.75	21.54	-5.32%	23.63	9.70%		Portfolio saver today, still 1/2 position
Cash (000)	$          13.44	$     13.44	0.01%	$      13.44	0.01%		Same
AVG (daily)			1.73%		-1.00%
AVG (monthly)			1.73%		0.65%
AVG (inception)			15.12%		13.71%

Comments »

 

I’ve been out all day, and I just realized I never even put down yesterday’s Jackson Portfolio display.   Must have been a cognitive dissonance thing, as the portfolio was down a little more than 1.5% yesterday (with cash, which the intraday changes don’t incorporate). 

Anyway, I figured I’d make it up to you by including this somewhat pedantic, yet useful “tardiness” tip sheet I cadged from “CommunicateInnovate.com” — in itself a useful site.   I also left off the comments from yesterday, since the rebound kind of makes them useless.    Looks like both gold and silver are staying within the range, and Mr. Anderson continues his winning ways… Onto the “tips” —

Bottom line: Whether it is a thrill or habit, there are steps you can take to reduce and eliminate your chronic tardiness problem. How do you respect and effectively utilize the universally shared commodity of time?

Balancing your time with those around you is an ongoing challenge. Be vigilant about effectively using your time and anyone sharing your time. Your calendar, your day timer (or PDA) and the clock are intrinsic tools of the business trade. Learn to tell time, use timers and challenge yourself to get there on time. There are mental mind-sets and effective meeting processes that can help you kick the tardiness problem (they helped me). Consider your scheduled meeting times as just a center point of your overall meeting time. It is usually the informal meetings or contact before and after the formal session where most of the business or decisions are solidified.

Always allow time for this informal contact:

1) Allow yourself 15 minutes before each scheduled meeting or event to: – get your thoughts or agenda together at the location for the meeting – have a quick meeting with the main person to review the agenda – chat with the person who is setting up the meeting room to get information on the attendees. Executive Assistants and Administrative Assistants can be an invaluable source of information. Build trust with this individual. – socialize and introduce yourself to the attendees prior to the formal meeting. You are likely to pick-up on the temperament of key individuals attending your meeting.

2) Allow 15 minutes after each scheduled meeting or event to: – review how effective the meeting was perceived by your key customer (coach) or by an attending colleague. – Take time with the key person (key influencer) to review the outcome of the meeting and strategize next steps – Test the water and ask for the business. You might actually get the order. Alllow time for that too

3) Give yourself the 15/15 minute buffer before and after each scheduled meeting to allow for unexpected things. Plus you will less likely impact on subsequent meeting times. Early is always better than late.

Arriving on-time is the most visible sign of disrespect toward the other people involved. For first time meetings, being on-time is one of the major positive impacts on ‘first and lasting impressions’. Add to your good reputation – be on-time. Including this “15/15 Time Wrapper” around each of your scheduled appointments and meetings will afford you more time to prepare/strategize (before)and then assess/close(afterwards). Reduce stress on both yourself and those around you. Your respect for other people’s time is a measure of your own self-respect. Being respectful is an honorable trait – a trait that can only add to your glowing reputation.  

About the Author:

Carl Chesal is a business and channel development consultant, trainer, internet marketer and professional photographer. He operates BizFare Enterprise Inc, providing business development, marketing, and internet marketing services. Bizfare Enterprise also operates a number of secure on-line shopping sites.

____________________________

12.74%

Jacksons from Yesterday:

Name/			%
Ticker	29-Jun	30-Jun	Change
ANDE	$      29.91	$      29.94	0.10%
EGO	9.45	8.95	-5.29%
GDX	39.15	37.82	-3.41%
GLD	92.04	91.18	-0.93%
IAG	10.30	10.12	-1.75%
MON	75.93	74.34	-2.09%
NRP	21.02	21.01	-0.05%
PAAS	18.55	18.33	-1.19%
RGLD	42.97	41.69	-2.98%
SLV	13.66	13.38	-2.05%
SLW	8.52	8.24	-3.29%
SSRI	19.16	18.75	-2.14%
TBT	50.65	50.92	0.53%
TC	10.57	10.22	-3.31%
TCK	16.06	15.94	-0.75%
TZA	22.52	22.75	1.02%
AVG (daily)			-1.72%
AVG (monthly)			-6.98%

 

AVG (inception)

Comments »

Silver’s been acting sickly for enough time to start irritating the most patient among us. I can only repeat that after last month’s huge moves, we were do as big a consolidation. Note — not a full retrace, but some pullback here, while the bull tries to shake the riders.

The good news is, gold’s hanging on here, even despite the attempts to knock it flat. It’s down today to $929 on the spot market, from $939.80 — a little bit more than 1.1% for the day. Silver, on the other hand, continues to take the brunt of it, with a 33 cent loss down to $13.60 — or almost 2.4% down for the day. That discrepency cannot hold, as silver is already undervalued compared to gold.

From a technical viewpoint, both the price of silver (POS) and the ETF [[SLV]] are showing similar signs of running into significant support.  I use the ETF here in this example because it’s a little cleaner:

From the chart, you can see SLV’s long term 38.2% fibonacci retrace line lies at $13.14. Moreover, it’s 200 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closed at $13.19.

I think there’s a good chance we dip to these levels and begin climbing back before the end of the week. The 38.2% fib line is usually very strong (like it’s inverse — the golden ratio of 61.8%), and it should hold for a solid bounce here. When I see this level, I will be taking advantage of the bounce by taking down a position in the double silver ETF [[AGQ]] , and riding it for at least a swing trade. I may also pick up some more [[EXK]] and any other miners I feel look “opportunistic” at the time.

Best to you.

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