[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDnlU6rPfwY 450 300]

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She sends me,

If I spring a leak, she mends me.

I don’t have to speak, as she defends me.

A drunkard’s dream if I ever did seeeee ooooooone.

(Appropriate electro-banjo interestice)

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Silver (la Lune) and gold (El Sol)  are both galloping across the skies now, impervious to my caution.   Thundering over my head, their coursers full afroth,  they say “paaah!” to my 70% position, daring me to chase my favourite (sic) miner names like some aging bobby soxer on Frank Sinatra Night at the Sands. 

I will not, however, as some option positions in the longer term department have sated my appetite for “easy dough” at the moment.  Instead I will stick to the still bargain issue lesser metals that are just now awakening to aroma of the lightly salted lightly peppered Bernanke Steaks that are being served to the market, “screw inflation”-style.

I will admit that I should have realized the printing presses would be truly whirring this week, as “the Bernank” attempts to assist “Backbone Barry” in ways that even Plugs Biden, with his literally literal literalisms and abstruse accolades cannot.  As I type, the dollar is down more than 80 cents (!!), plunging below the 50% fibonacci line that I mentioned the other day ($80.72) and now heading for the next support at $80.00 or so. 

Given the ferociousness of today’s takedown I wouldn’t be surprosed if we broke below $79, even in the near term, as we head to new lows in 2013.  Ben seems to be pulling out all the stops, as unemployment still sucks, and the only thing that will get people to think things are ok is if the market is up, up, up.    So be it, but just keep in mind we are playing with interest rate fire here.  That’s why I like the commodities more than the stocks here.  It’s only a matter of time.

I see my perspicacious friend Le Monsieur has already taken my “Cripple Creek” stock TC as his latest addition, so I won’t spend much time lauding it (you’ve probably already bought it, haven’t you?).   Know that this stock truly was crippled, unfairly, IMHO, by a bad financing timing decision.  It can get back to $5 (200 day EMA) very easily from here, I believe.

On other non-PM’s, I like TCK here, also beaten down like an ugly mule.  The nice thing about this metal mining sector is how you can make tonnes of money on beaten down stocks in it for about four out of the 52 weeks of the year.  I think we may be in one of those periods. 

Feel free to ask, I’ll probably say yes, but ask anyway.

Best to you all. 

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZgQhnNRSuw 450 300]

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 The empty suit video above aside, I’d like to direct you to an excellent Wall Street Journal article that reviews the scope of our Entitlement State circa 2012.  It’s not that we have reached an unaffordable precipice (we most certainly have), but that the extent and volume of government fund transfers both in dollar terms and in terms of the percentage of the citizenry receiving transfers has begun to transform our own national character.  The article is appropriately called “Are Entitlements Corrupting Us?”

A lot of U.S.-based  and foreign leftists tend to complain whenever anyone brings up the subject of American Exceptionalism, but I wonder how many of them are enjoying this current slide into mediocrity, and how many will be happy when we’re just another European-type welfare state?  I think quite a few of them have a niggling feeling in the back of their head that something is slowly being lost, much as the rest of us on the other side of the aisle have done.  I don’t think one can help it.  I also cannot believe that the majority– even on the Left– sense this will be a net positive for the world.

But who really knows? Spite and schadenfreude are powerful emotional succors.  One never knows where a person, once corrupted, will get their kicks.

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The dollar continues to tumble overnight, but draws near some major Fibonacci support at the high $80.80’s region.  Don’t be surprised if we get a bounce.  Perhaps a weak one, but maybe enough to deflate this current gold and silver run up for several days or even over a week.  I’m cautious here, only because I saw a lot of euphoria last week.  I’m about 60% invested on my PM positions, and will be patient here.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yD43OrcjDI 450 300]

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Overall thumbs up to the RNC.  Some lame moments, but this is the Republicans, after all.  They are the opposite of slick.  Unlike many, I enjoyed Clint’s off the cuff rambling.  He’s like your crotchety grandfather — the one you got your sense of humor from, the one who could always make you smile.  Rubio had the second best speech of the convention, after only Ryan, and his tying his own immigrant roots-story into the Euro-style socialist policies of the Obama Administration was as spot-on as it was rhetorically brilliant.  To whit:

“These (Obama policies) are the ideas that people come to America to get away from.”

Brilliant.

Mitt was better than I expected, if only third place (Christie was terrible, IMHO, btw).  He humanized himself, I thought, and connected with the women’s vote, which will be crucial.  His economic versatility can be taken for granted, and it will be what helps save this Republic, but he’s not going to get that chance without “the womenses.”  Unlike Obama, he’s not just another pretty face.

I’m reasonably upbeat about the prospects of the GOP ticket going into November, but much work remains to be done.  Despite Obama’s Jimmy Carteresque record, he’s got major dollar-equivalent support from the likes of the major networks and wire services.  The good news is the American populace is discounting these propaganda organs substantially in the 21st Century.  The Obama-Reid-Pelosi abysmal record is there for those who want to review it,  and it’s our job as intelligent arbiters of our own republic to make sure the truth is not buried under slander, spin and misdirection.   God bless us all.

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I think yesterday’s downspike may have presented an opportunity, market-wise.  I may start to step back into some of my sold off SLW and SIL positions.  I also like SLV for the duration here.  Those of you who have not done so may even think about physical silver.  I think we’re done pulling back and getting ready for the (longer term) move back to the 2011 highs.  We’re back above the 200 day EMA (and pulled back to it yesterday at $29.40).  We may pay pull back to fill in some gaps in the recent rise, but I don’t see SLV getting back below $28.50 any time soon.

For those fleet of foot and young enough to throw some bones on a play, I think BAA presented a nice opportunity yesterday on that big pullback.  If you look at this five minute chart, you’ll see a bunch of buying in the last hour of trading, all at that magic $4-dollarish mark.

I think this thing is headed back to $5.00 at some point before year end, and that’s 20% from here. Keep in mind this is a risky one, and against my usual gold miner picking strategy as it’s got tonnes of political risk, being in the “Democratic”(hah!) Republic of Congo. Keep your finger on the “caution” button for this sucker.

Another beaten down stock I was asked about (by Ragin’ Cajun, it turns out, sorry I took so long RC!) is rare earth miner MCP — Molycorp. I don’t own any of this but looking at the chart, it seems like this would be as safe buy with your stops set below the close on the 28th ($10.75).  I think yesterday’s action was typical back and fill volatility, and MCP is ready to join the re-inflation party Chairman Bernanke is about to touch off in pursuit of “four more years” for he and Barry.

Best to you all.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aO9tA5DWJM 450 300]

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The above is satire, of course, but let’s not laugh too hard at the funny kiddies.  In certain European states, the “path to success” is through the government bureaucracies.  Is the U.S. approaching that level?  Food for thought.

If you have not already, you should be trimming your silver and gold positions, or at least the leveraged ones.  We’ve had nice move here, so let’s not get too greedy.  I’m out of AGQ, NUGT and ERX as of this morning.  I’ve also trimmed between 35-50% of the remainder of my largest positions.

Have a great Friday.

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Bonus Crony!  This goes out to the speech stomping Jim H, (D- Croneyville).

Tribute to Mr. Mays….

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVrCKk45cZQ 450 300]

 

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It looks like Argentum Silver is leading the PM hordes forth again, most likely as a direct predecessor to another dollar break here.  Up over 2.5% as I type and outpacing it’s usually more lively cousin, Aurum Gold, which is up only one-tenth as much.

I think this is a good sign, even for you non-PM investors, as silver is the more sensitive to the “commodity” and “industrial” sectors, and it’s rise here should be good news for all of you commodity speculators, whether you be earl rustlers or coal bandits.  I will continue with my investments in refiners until they stop making sense, however, even with a rise in earl.  I continue to like WNR and PSX, for instance.  HFC as well.

For silver bugs, I went long(er) today by adding to my AGQ position, for the short term trip to the 200-day EMA, at close to $50 right now.  I will likely sell this additional piece off when we reach that mark, however, as I don’t like to be too heavily leveraged in this volatile metal.   At least, not for any length of time.

I also like EXK here, despite it’s continue pokiness compared to jackrabbit AG.  SSRI also seems to be re-gaining ground, if you are of the speculative sort.  As always, SIL and SLW are the formidable base of my silver horde, and I recommend those for any toe dippers.

Best to you.

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Maybe this is the week of the “Paul Ryan Feel Good,” or just the week when Joe Biden rolled himself in a child’s wading pool full of tar and scrap paper, and then set himself alight.

Maybe the world feels a little more optimistic these days than they did even three weeks back.  Maybe that’s just an optical (auditory?) illusion.  Whatever the reason, the dollar is finally starting to budge a little bit, and we may be sniffing a break of $82.00 within the next week or so.  As a result, the risk trade, especially in the precious metals, refineries and earl & gas plays has finally begun to become more appetizing here.

You know I love SLW, and it’s really looking strong again here.  After consolidating on the 200-week moving average for ten weeks (but not breaking below it, important!), SLW is now over it’s 13-week and 34-week moving average.    Above $30 right now at a close today of $31.65, you might want to set a buy stop right at that low $30-ish level.  It’s worth waiting a bit for here, as the last couple of days have been explosive.  Almost always, SLW will reward the patient hand.  Again, SIL is for you if you do not want to own individual silver stocks.

On the gold side, I don’t think you could do much better than RGLD.  Right now it’s forming the right side of a mini-cup, and I really think the next time it breaches $80.00, it will be home free — flying in virgin territory.  It’s absolutely astounding what this stock has done over the last 10 years.  In 2001, it was trading at less than $2.00.  They’ve only gotten stronger in their royalty finance commitments recently, and now appear to be stepping into the big leagues.  I also like AUY, as mentioned, and of course GDXJ.

Last but not least, I like the refiners.  I love my WNR, and still clutch it, but for my money, I think PSX warrants a lot of attention too. After it settles down from its most recent breakout on the weekly chart, I think it’s a purchase at the $39.00 level. Whether it’s the year of the monkey or the Age of Aquarius, for some reason refiners are hot again, and it’s time to take advantage.

I think this string will run at least to the end of the month, especially if the dollar continues to cooperate.  At that point, however, I’m going to start at least selling calls, if not whole swaths of stocks.   This POTUS race is going to tighten, and I don’t think that will be good for market breaking into mid-September.  Until then, however, let’s play that grasshopper music.

Best to you all.

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Best.

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