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Move to Romania if you must, but you’ll only miss all the fun we’re about to have.    As Fire Marshall Bill would say— “Let me show ya somethin’!”

Check this silver seasonality chart out…. Do you really want to struggle with the turkey gods?  And keep in mind that’s over 37 years of seasonality baked in that pie.

Last please revisit one more timemy AGQ chart:

 

Yes, that’s one more tap on the trend line and this time a hammer to boot.  I think that gives us the oversold mojo we’ve been looking for, and tomorrow, I think we make that assault on $60 one more time.

 

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_g2t0ZfIkA 450 300]

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Gobble, Gobble, fellow pilgrims!  Are you concerned about your precious metal stores and stocks this close to Turkey Day?  Even though The PPT has assured us that these are the stuffing days for such metals coursing into year end?

Well, I can’t say that I don’t blame you, given the vexatious day we had yesterday, where everyone and their brother decided that liquidating hard commodities was the answer to Europe’s considerable paper problem. On the other hand, with a relatively high Blees rating (a relative ratio of commerical trader sentiment over the last 18 months) of above 50% (at 74 as of last reading), I can’t see traders going against historic trends hear and blowing out of these positions in defiance of the Turkey gods.

In other words, I think yesterday was something of a panic day.  Do tell, right?  

But panic days are what we are here for… especially when they are delivered toward the end of the year and a mere week before Tryptophanatic Day.

So far the Bernank seems to be playing along, as the dollar is currently down below my target of $77.80 as revealed on Fly’s blog yesterday.   If it stays down there, I believe we will have a chance for a sustainable bounce in play on all the PM’s and even the much beknighted silver that so many were moaning about here yesterday. 

Before I show you my silver chart, I want to remind you that it was junior golds that I thought would provide the biggest bang for the buck here.  That should still be here, and outside the old favorites of SLW and EXK, I would probably avoid getting too crazy about silver miners until we see a rebound, and then a re-test of yesterday’s levels. 

That being said, I note that AGQ weekly is still well above it’s long term trend line.  And while yesterday I thought perhaps we’d get a test of that line, I think we may even open higher this morning (above $60), and if so, I might actually begin adding to my 50% positions here.   The stops are pretty obvious on the weeklies, but you may not want to set them below the trend line if you are more of a short time type.   In that case, I’d recommend a stop below $60, and a “wait and see” going into next week.  

Keep in mind that Friday after Tryptophan Awareness Day is often one of the best PM days of the year (although not always long lived).  Here’s my latest on “fast money” AGQ.

 

Given the oversold levels of AG and even of the more stable $HUI (we missed the 200 day EMA ($552) by a hair yesterday, and may test today, but we did bounce right at the reliable 34 week EMA as well), I will be looking to add to a number of positions today.  

Keep in mind a number of caveats…

1) If the dollar index (DX-Y) breaks back above $78, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace on the long term weekly, I will take these adds off

2) If the $HUI breaks below it’s 200-day EMA (approximately $552), I will take these trades off.

3) If the POG breaks below $1700, I will take these trades off.

Again, I am still not convinced that any of the above events means our traditional Santa Claus Gold Mitzvah is off for this year.  In fact, it probably just means the rebound will be pushed into next week.

That said, one must take some precautions, and those levels are good ones to pay attention to.

Perhaps we will revisit this weekend, if I don’t have 12 kid parties and 15 lacrosse/field hockey/Quick Recall games to attend.

My best to you.

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I have a daughter who was born in 2000.  She’s going to a classmate’s party today, and you guessed it, the classmate is also 11, on 11/11/11.   Pretty cool.  Of course my daughter also knows kids that were in 10 on October 10th and 9 on September 9th, and almost all the way down the line.   I guess that’s one of the hidden perks of being a Millenial Baby. 

Of course all that fun ends next December on 12/12/12, which will not coincidentally also soon after auger in her first year of teenagerdom.  Teenagerhood?  Teenagedness?

In any case, I’d better gird my loins.

But let’s not lose sight of the importance of the Day itself, written into history in 1918 as the end marker of “The War to End all Wars” — WWI.  Unfortunately that was a bit of hubris, wasn’t it?  The very Treaty (Versailles) signed that day in fact set the groundwork for an even worse World War only a little more than 20 years later. 

The study of history shows that human nature is cyclic, and that we tend to make the same mistakes, no matter our careful plans to eradicate them by mutually agreed consensus.   There will always be those who seek to take advantage of said consensus, just as there will always be those claiming we’ve finally arrived at the “End of History.”  

To expect otherwise in future is a fool’s game.  We can only do the best we can, and improve ourselves individually and as a society by gentle consensus, and with a constant and humble awareness that we will backslide.  That knowledge, that humility, will allow us to rebound all the quicker.

I would humbly suggest we hold then to our accumulated traditions, our respect for others, their person and property and our fealty to consensual agreement over forced autarchy.   For these are the traditions that set the Free People of the West apart from civilizations of the past, and from the failed societies of the present.  

But let’s also be most cognizant that these traditions are under fire from many quarters, and that in many cases, all that stands between them and the less enlightened cohorts of the past are the blood of those willing to defend their preservation.

So let’s raise a glass to our Veterans, and to those who carry the sword — voluntarily — into battle for our civilization today.   And pass that good word to a soldier in uniform not just this day, but from this day foreward.

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As I expected (was hoping?), the dollar gnomes have collapsed the dollar anew.    This has led to some very nice activity in the silver and gold pits, with the kind of flagging (bullish) that makes my heart grow fond.

I will likely add here and there to my hordes today, and will let you know if I do.  Right now I am enjoying strong moves in SLW, EGO, IAG and my various ETF plays, including the doubles AGQ and NUGT.

As always, if you want to toe-dip, start with the basics — GDX, GDXJ and SIL.  Highest octane is in the crazy silvers, like my favourites AG and EXK.  Today and for the next few days, SSRI should also be moving to make up for the plungerooni (overdone) yesterday.

Lastly, don’t forget about the “rare earth” plays like QRM and AVL for added dollar inflation pop.
My best to you all on this day of honour.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfhkuXuQ9eA 450 300]

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What are you doing moping about as if the moon has hit your eye like a big pizza pie?  That’s only ammonia (anhydrous), and don’t take big breaths if it’s making your eyes water.

Italian bonds made everyone in the market sad, and yet I chalked up another win in my real life.  This is getting kind of ridiculous and I’m beginning to see visions of fat smiling men wearing fezzes and carrying sharp harem scimitars from lack of sleep.   I could have the best year of my life and my wife could be spending it (and the insurance proceeds) with her new boyfriend on the Riviera this time next year.

And during all that chaos today the market was melting down.  At first my golds and even silvers hung tough, but then even they succumbed to the great vortex that if forming over the gladiator cages of the Coliseum in Rome.  Sylvio Berlusconi was the first round heeled slick bastard to get sucked into that vortex, but for all I know there’ll be prominent members of the Vatican entering it next, only to find themselves ended up in some alternate universe heaven or maybe an independent book store in Dubuque.

Tonight I thought the Herminator acquitted himself well, getting off a couple of good zingers on the Dem party faithful like Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Nancy “Princess” Pelosi.  Rick Perry’s Gaffemasters Speaking Tour continues to everyone’s great chagrin.  Mittster continues to disappoint with his pandering bullshit about a tax cut “for the middle class.”  WTF does that even mean, Mitt?  What is “the middle class” and aren’t “targeted tax cuts” an instrument of Democrat policy?  Get with the program or you’ll never get the nomination.

Newt Gingrich was clever, but looked like some kind of giant marionette up there on stage.  Could’ve been the lighting.   Rick Santorum looked like hell and geez!  Whine much?  Huntsman was equally unimpressive although he did try to make some good points on tax policy that were “acceptable.”   Michele Bachmann… I hate to be sexist but she’s pretty damn cute, and just as Stepford-ish as you can hope for.  Policy wise?  Meh.

I was busy today and did nothing at the site but watch the Monsieur buy some RGLD.  I looked at some SLW at the end of the day as well but got called into a meeting before I could do anything.  I do like that it’s coming down on it’s 200 day EMA.   I think it will bounce there, at $34.70, and that’s where I may be adding.

Besides those two, NGD and AUY held pretty strong relative to their peers.  Look to them tomorrow for a first bounce.

Hang in there, we are oversold like few times I’ve seen, and I think we rebound tomorrow, but maybe not until late morning.

Best to you all.

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Things just keep getting more and more peachy around here.   On Friday, as I revealed yesterday, I threw caution to the wind and grabbed a whole lot of miner and double ETF picks that I had a feeling would make a strong move this week.  Today I was rewarded for that Erroll Flynn-ish type of move not only by a strong move in the precious metal sector, but also a bonus Eagle loss to a team they should never lose to if they believe themselves contenders this year (sorry Bears fans).

Especially not at home.

That puts my Giants three games ahead of the “Dream Team” Beagles, albeit with three tough games still ahead of them (and one in the rear view mirror in Gilette Stadium -heh!).  There’s more than serendipity at work here, methinks…

Could it be the Turkey Gods are blessing us all in advance?  It’s quite possible, especially when you look at the evidence available in the $HUI — an index which up to now has been quite vexatious to those of us who trade “the original coin.”

But look what the weekly is telling us now… not only are we breaking out over old levels, but it looks like this time we’ve ample time left in the run.  Check out these stochastics on the $HUI weekly —

 

That’s right, we’re near the famed “$610 Maginot Line,” again, and with adequate momentum to take those levels out with aplomb.  And we all know that breakouts beget breakouts, don’t we?

So grab your favorite gold miner or royalty financier (RGLD!) or even multi-varied ETF (GDX, SIL, GDXJ), because I think there’s more fun to come.

I may even grab some NUGT tomorrow if I can squeeze some time out of my fire extinguishing duties.

No rest for the weary Gentlemen (and Ladies).   I will see you all around the coyne shoppes.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLMnpB51vVM&feature=related 450 300]

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I may be half a world away, but  I’m still checking in on you chickies.  I know that the precious metal trade remains robusto, despite the dollar’s flirting with Euro-shagging here in the late late Sunday evening.   (Believe me it’s even later here).

Just so you know, I loaded up on AGQ, RGLD, NUGT, SLW, AG this past Friday for better or for worse.  Here’s what I’ve been looking at from an AGQ basis:

 

Note the long consolidation phase and the promise of a couple of weeks?   Heck, that week may even be here.

And the there’s another.  “Besotten Dick” we call him and up aways at the motor hotel we hear about the same preachers who try to smolder the ladies on Sunday morning only to poke out at the end.

His ticket of choice is IAG, a much disparaged gold stock that need to reside safely in American hands…. so as never to be dispatched by foreign antipaths again.  You may call this analysis but I call it mental telepathy.

Amazing how many of these things come out when the games are hot  no? Coincidental?  I think it might help put the nearest Jakesib in the looney bin should he act up..

Best to you all.

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