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Regarding the Morte D’Arthur

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpA_5a0miWk 450 300]

Quite possibly the “Best Music/Worst Video” combination of all time


At the end of the Sir Thomas Malory’s Le Morte d’Arthur, the famed British hero King Arthur is transported back to an enchanted island to recover from his mortal wounds after the Battle of Camman  and perhaps be frozen in time for the next time England might need it’s hero king.

Some say he did come back– as Mick Jagger, or more likely the closer kin — Welshman Tom Jones– but that’s only idle speculation.  The important bit to remember here is that enchanted isle was called “Avalon, the Island of Fortune. ”   Some of you who are on The PPT may think sometimes that all of my picks have gone to a magical island to recover from their mortal wounds.  Perhaps they too will reappear someday when Chess or Rage or le Fly are having a bit of a dry spell.

That too may be idle speculation, but in the meantime, there’s a rare earth metal stock that I’ve been accumulating as of late, now to the tune of 30 kilotons, mostly in the low to mid $2 range.  It is of course called Avalon (AVL), and may finally be revealing itself as the font of good fortune I expected after many a day of bouncing around like a malfeasant pinball.

You’ll note in the chart below, that I marked an original consolidation point upon which I thought AVL might rest for a bit after rallying off it’s lows in October, hitting resistance at the old breakdown point (about $4) in early November, and then making a higher low in late November.

As the stock rallied back above that mid-consolidation line in early December, you will recall that I expected it to base there on the consolidation line.  Well that didn’t happen, at least not for very long, and the stock actually began breaking down again.  It eventually broke down below the “higher low” area all the way to the October lows before rallying once again on strong volume.   Note all that progress in the chart below:

Now the question begs — did we just experience a double bottom in these cursed rare earth metals?  If you look at REE, your answer might surely be “hells yes!”  Checking QRM, however, and you might consider the jury still in the anteroom.

What I can see, however, from the above chart is that we have some pretty helpful guideposts available.  If what we’re seeing on the past two high volume days has been the first two legs of the three white soldier candlestick pattern, we’ll see AVL‘s price burst above that consolidation line that so effectively served as our ceiling today.   Since this is a bullish reversal pattern, it should mean continuation after a bit of consolidation, so we might venture some additional buying in that case.

If however we do not get any follow through on the last two days momentum, we know that the consolidation line is acting as resistance.  If we really do have a double bottom pattern here, then we likely will not see another low below the most recent “DB” lows, and you’ll rather have a “rest,” followed by a final break of the resistance.  Given the volume of the last two days, I think that’s the more likely bet.

As an aside… my “Magnificent 7” 2012 picks, including Pick of the Year UPS, as well as AG, COP, DE, MON, PBR and RGLD, are up 5.9% collectively so far this year, and that’s not including dividends, which on some of those can be a significant sweetner.   MON is in the lead as far as top performers, with 12.5%, followed by AG and PBR with 8.5% each.  My two laggards are UPS and COP, with 0.4% and o.1% returns, respectively, thus far this year.  This does not include either stock’s phat dividends of course.

I’m going to be in and out the rest of the week, meeting with buyers, so I may be scarce, but will endeavor to visit at least in the evenings.   My best to you all.



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Nuit du Français

Mime stomp 

Tonight is French Night on iBC, as ably demonstrated by Le Fly, who’s been buzzing around the streets and back alleys of Brooklyn on a moped, wearing a mime outfit and carrying hardened assault baguettes with which he has been smacking passing bearshitters.

As a consequence, our entertainment tonight will be of the French variety.  Someone sent me this following vid … some fan I guess (of the girl, not me).  I was intrigued, given the alleged huge popularity of this young woman over in Francais-land.  

Putting my French prejudices aside (as always), I look at this vid and I say — “what the hell is wrong with these people?”

I mean… haven’t they ever seen a Madonna video?  A far more hideous woman, from Michigan no-less, and yet, she makes for a far more entertaining spectacle, what with her sweaty dance kicks and conical breastusses-plates and all.  

Watching this piece, one is compelled to ask — what brilliant choreographer designed the 18-inch diameter dancing circle this young nymphette was forced to remain within?  And, was it John Travolta who taught her the “hand jive” she’s so desperately working here… maybe less to the music and more to the invisible flames engulfing her hands? 

Get this woman an L.A. talent agent, post-haste!    (Anton, I am suggesting you apply.)

And will someone… someone please insert a decent “Yo, Adrian!” at approximately 3:57 of this piece?   Thank you.

  [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceSxEjwXHcM 450 300] 


As for the market today, we saw some winship and we saw some consolidation.   As a consequence, I think [[TBT]] is ready to go north tomorrow after a nice pullback today.   [[BAA]] was a glorious win of many flying colors, and I don’t think it’s done yet.   I still like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and [[EXK]] .   If I had to have a favourite (sic) Jackson tomorrow, besides TBT, it would likely be Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] and Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] — pray for a pullback on the latter.   Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] should also be examined closely.

That’s all for tonight.   Wait, there’s one more before I forget… Corriente Resources Inc. [[ETQ]] has popped on my radar, and will likely get some follow through tomorrow.    Also, I added 2k more [[BIOS]] — if you get anything this year, break off a little bit for this consistently stair stepping winner.

Best to you and I will try to continue to update you tomorrow.

Name/   %   %   Portfolio Portfolio     
Ticker 15-Jul Change 16-Jul Change   Value Impact   Comments
ANDE  $     29.20    $      29.30 0.34%    $        8,847 0.02%   Could follow up w. the MOS & POT wins
EGO           9.05              9.20 1.66%    $        8,620 0.09%   Like to see it get above $9.50 here
GDX         38.29            38.33 0.10%    $      11,601 0.01%   50 day at 39.07,  might get resistance there.
GLD         92.24            91.98 -0.28%    $      10,578 -0.02%   Held up at the 50 day (92.08)
IAG           9.99            10.05 0.60%    $      12,392 0.04%   Closed over the fifty day
MON         76.46            75.74 -0.94%    $        4,442 -0.03%   Got the pullback we expected, to the 50day
NRP         22.27            22.89 2.78%    $        4,751 0.08%   All of a sudden looking strong.
PAAS         19.30            19.12 -0.93%    $      11,483 -0.06%   Closed over the fifty day, $20 the test now
RGLD         40.51            40.59 0.20%    $      11,216 0.01%   Still under 20 & 50 day.
SLV         13.06            13.09 0.23%    $      10,634 0.01%   POS consolidating here
SLW           8.41              8.39 -0.24%    $        8,150 -0.01%   Consolidating
SSRI         18.62            18.76 0.75%    $      10,913 0.05%   Needs back over $19.
TBT         53.19            52.00 -2.24%    $      10,359 -0.14%   Will likely buy tomorrow on this pullback
TC         11.61            11.81 1.72%    $        5,540 0.06%   Getting ready to crank one out
TCK         18.46            20.03 8.50%    $      13,318 0.68%   JUST BTFO.  Likely consolidate now.
TZA         21.28            20.35 -4.37%    $        4,100 -0.11%   Prolly get some strength tomorrow
Cash (000)  $      0.00    $    26.42 0.01%    26,420.79 0.00%   Same
AVG (daily)       0.46%    $ 173,365 0.68%    
AVG (monthly)       2.78%   Actual      
AVG (inception)       16.09%   Return 15.58%    

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Bernie Madoff, Prison Bride

Bernie Madoff, Prison Bride

So they gave Bernie 150 years in the slam. Sounds like a big deal, but I bet he doesn’t do 12… this side of the daisies, at least. Hey fugheddaboudit, he might even escape the above elaborate costume by becoming the “prison accountant” and doing Bubbah’s taxes every year. Can you see it?

Bubbalah, I have news! Yoah tax refund estimates out at 16 cahtons of Marlboro Reds and a case of Mint Jelly Spam. No, dahling, it is no trouble.  You just pay me my “dahposit” of five cartons, and we can get the ball rolling on this new “thing” right away!

He should be fine.

But enough about old Bernie.  Let’s face it, he’s getting what he deserves, and that’s what we’re all about on the Jacksonian Plan too.   Right now, it looks like the market is taking its time taking a decision.   Will she run up to the top of the hill at 960 again, or jump off the cliff righ here at 926-ish, and end it all, emo lemming style?   I admit I don’t know, as today was a veritable “stick in the mud” despite the drop in the dollar and the increase in oil prices.

Earnings are still coming out favourably (sic) in some industries, including health care and selected technologies.  Aging pension filler behemoths like Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson [[JNJ]] , Amgen, Inc. [[AMGN]]  , Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. Merck & Co., Inc. [[MRK]] and even good old staple stock Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] are starting to look like they’ves got some gusto here, and the Jackson’s seem like they want to go into hibernation.  

That doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made, however, and on top of the Jacksons I’ll be watching these nutty juniors like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] , and some key techs that The PPT has been alerting me to.   Two I purchased today were Fly’s current hot pick [[ARMH]] and perennial PPT favourite (sic) [[BIOS]] at $6.02 and $5.83 respectively.  I am also waiting on an entry for TEKELEC [[TKLC]] , perhaps tomorrow.  

In the meantime, the only Jackson that I think looks appetizing here is [[TBT]] , as I think it’s getting very cheap again.   I continue to monitor the silvers closely, however, as they’ve been volatile lately.  That said, the spot price of silver is back above $14 tonight, and gold is back over $940 again.   Good signs.

 I promise to make myself more available tomorrow, and keep you updated on the purchases and sales, if any.   Good night for now.

Name/     %    
Ticker 26-Jun 29-Jun Change   Comments
ANDE  $      30.23  $      29.91 -1.06%   Low volume pullback.  Keeping an eye.
EGO            9.40            9.45 0.53%   Plateauing.
GDX          39.20          39.15 -0.13%   Hanging on the 20-day
GLD          92.29          92.04 -0.27%   POG over $940 now.
IAG          10.48          10.30 -1.72%   Low volume pullback.  
MON          75.25          76.20 1.26%   Still a lot of work to do.
NRP          20.82          21.02 0.96%   Watch for break of bear flag here.
PAAS          19.08          18.55 -2.78%   Turned away at the 200 & 50 day
RGLD          42.07          42.97 2.14%   Low volume retrace, not trusting.
SLV          13.90          13.66 -1.73%   POS back above $14 this evening.
SLW            8.72            8.52 -2.29%   Between the 50 and 200 day EMA.
SSRI          19.52          19.16 -1.84%   Same as SLW
TBT          50.84          50.65 -0.38%   Very slight pullback… looking to add again
TC          10.44          10.57 1.25%   4th upday, on light volume
TCK          16.56          16.06 -3.02%   Low vol, still above 20, 50, and 200.
TZA          22.50          22.52 0.09%   Flat on low volume. Do or die, here.
AVG (daily)     -0.56%    
AVG (monthly)     -6.96%    
AVG (inception)     14.80%    

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Hangin’ Out in Devil Dawg’s Bunker

Yes, I’ve been down here all day stacking cans of chicken stock and chewing tobacky with the Devil Dawg, whilst we discuss Obamacare Armageddon scenarios and the influence of Frederick Heidegger on the work of the BeeGees, post-Staying Alive.

Okay, so it’s not that bad yet, but I’ve “taken some steps” ovah heah, as I mentioned I would last night.   One of them was to cut back a bit on certain plays where I had some substantial gains (in the case of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] ) or wanted to reduce some exposure due to flaccidity Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] — all in order to raise cash.  

I sold 25% each of the SLW and EGO and another one third of the TC, as it broke $9.25.    I now have just a third of my original 1,407 shares of TC purchased at $7.11 left.  This second batch was sold at quite a bit less than the first ($11.21), but still at a 30% premium.

The SLW was sold at $8.21 right before the close, and the EGO at $8.12, at 6.35% and 1.5% returns, respectively.  Ugly and the folk in the PPT will tell you how reluctant I was to part with even that much, but a necessary cash raiser for our protective [[TZA]] , of which we purchased $10,000 worth at $24.82(as mentioned this morning in the last post’s comments), similar to our other “initial purchases” in the JCHP.    I reserve the right to add more in $10k increments, and may do so tomorrow, depending on where this market is headed.

I am also looking at [[SMN]] as a possible add tomorrow, and Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] as a possible cut, again depending on what the commodity movers do.  Stay tuned.

Name 22-Jun % Change 23-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.45    $ 28.23 -0.77%    50-day @ $27.53, could “touch & go.”
EGO       7.65         8.07 5.49%   Strong launch off the 200 day today (7.64)
GDX     35.74       37.33 4.45%   Also bounced off the 200 day EMA (35.71)
GLD     90.54       90.92 0.42%   $90 seems like support/
IAG       9.04         9.58 5.97%   Nice rebound from yesterday’s plunge.
MON     78.12       79.30 1.51%   Continue to watch that $77.25 level.
NRP     20.60       20.65 0.24%   Rebounded weakly, may sell tomorrow.
PAAS     18.02       18.31 1.61%   Need some follow through tomorrow
RGLD     41.12       42.43 3.19%   Closed just about 50 day ($42.27)
SLV     13.54       13.62 0.59%   Tepid response, but POS up 15 cents tonight.
SLW       7.97         8.21 3.01%   Needs to reclaim 200 day @ 8.40, or die trying.
SSRI     17.56       17.99 2.45%   same as above, 200 day is @18.91
TBT     53.28       51.85 -2.68%   Could easily get back to 49.25 before bounce.
TC       9.40         9.42 0.21%   Sold another 1/3 at $9.24.
TCK     14.57       15.51 6.45%   Nice bounce off 200 day EMA @ 14.62
TZA     24.82       25.57 3.02%   New hedge entrant, up nominally today.
AVG (daily)       2.20%    
AVG (monthly)       -9.93%    
AVG (inception)   11.03%    
Cash ( 000’s)    $   4.14    

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Is there a Doctor in the House?

Sorry, I gotta make this one short and sweet.  I got a barfing three year old on my hands.   They don’t like to accomodate you at that age, if you’re familiar, so I have to play “moving target” ovah heah.

Anyway, the Jacksons didn’t do much today, and you can see my comments below.  The two big movers were [[TC]] — which is just a Godzillian monster ripping down ricepaper buildings in Tokyo — busted right past my 61.8% long term fib line today and proceeded to keep going.   I wanted to sell the calls only to find  — to my deep chagrin and embarassment — there were none.   So I sold one third of my position, as reported, at $11.21.   I guess we’ll find out very soon if that was a bad move, but considering I had gotten those shares in the low sixes, I could not complain.  

[[TBT]] is the other marching gorilla, responding to all kinds of distress out there in Ten Year Bond land.   Well, I just don’t think we’re going to crack 4% on the first attempt here, auction or not.   I just think that’s too easy.   I will likely sell the calls again tomorrow on any further march to $60, keeping in mind we may have seen the high water mark this afternoon at $59.79.

Only [[PAAS]] was over 2% for the rest of the Jackson’s and only [[ANDE]] — which needed a rest — was down more than 2%… so, a blah day.

I will caution you to watch the PM’s tomorrow however, as I got the feeling that this current consolidation may be coming to an end, one way or the other.  Stay alert.

On non Jacksons [[ENTR]] finally broke out a bit and [[ANV]] showed nice relative strength considering the paucity of movement in the rest of the gold sector.  That may be one to own when we start moving again.   

That’s all for now, save the list.   Be well everybody, and watch the puke flu.


{I know I keep fiddling with the format of this performance chart, but please let me know if you like this latest idea of putting the prior day’s post in for comparison’s sake.}

Name 9-Jun 10-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 31.30  $    30.48 -2.62%   Still on the trendline.
EGO       9.21          9.13 -0.87%   Would like to see it kiss the st trend line @ $8.90
GDX     41.09        40.80 -0.71%   Hanging on 61.8% long term fib.  Added 1k today @$40.88
GLD     93.83        93.86 0.03%   POG down about $2.  Waiting.
IAG     10.17        10.21 0.39%   Holding pattern.
MON     85.07        85.85 0.92%   Dropped and recovered nicely all afternoon.
NRP     24.11        24.01 -0.41%   Looking for a breakout above $24.60 to “prove”
PAAS     21.71        22.15 2.03%   Looking to get over $22.30 in the morning.
RGLD     44.37        43.90 -1.06%   Touched the trendline as expected, should go north from here.
SLV     15.03        15.01 -0.13%   PO Silver down a mere 8 cent.
SLW     10.29        10.18 -1.07%   Will it get to the trendline @ $9.90?  
SSRI     22.59        22.75 0.71%   Making a move for the top of the cup again.
TBT     57.22        58.77 2.71%   Missed $60 by fitty cent.  Waiting for auction to sell calls.
TC     10.58        11.32 6.99%   Just a freaking monster.  Took 1/3 off @ $11.21. Mistake?
TSO     15.51        15.35 -1.03%   Needs to show me something here, or buh-bye.
AVG     0.39%    

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Friends Don’t Let Friends Score FAZ

Sometimes it’s not about the money, it’s about the high.  The high you get from being right when everyone else (or most everyone) is wrong.   Let me tell you it can be a heady thrill,  as good or better than any triumphs on the athletic or academic plain.

But I implore you to forswear this high.   Do it today.   For it will turn you into a ravening frog-eyed hermit, cursing the clouds and the crowds for not bending to your superior will and your knowing…. your knowing.

This is a game of accepting defeat after all, shaking the Fly’s hand in a firm, but gentlemanly fashion and then moving on.  It’s  not a game of self incineration.   We must keep foremost in mind that a mass of blackened carbon cannot sally forth ever again.   He can only sit, and smolder and fume and smoke…. 

And curse his fate…

On alternating Mondays.


   It looks like no one will be able to keep these commodities down for very long.   Is it the dollar?  Is it our interest rates?  Looming inflation?   I don’t know.   “KISS” — not the rock group but the acronym — instructs me to “K-eep I-t S-imple, S-tupid,” and so I will.

Just follow the trend til it ends.   

Is that instruction really that tough to follow?   Yes, the Devil Dog is in the details, but then you’ve many friends here (and on The PPT) with whom to consult.   We shall not leave your side despite your sweaty palms and mild B.O..      The bio-techs are still working.  Don’t ask me why, I blame CA  for starting the conversation with a grainy haus frau in a smoke-filled bar in Washington Heights three weeks ago.

You know how the flutter of the butterflies wings in a crowded tavern leads to hurricanoes in the porcelain room?     I like [[HEB]]-rews here, and First Phillip-ians [[MO]].    Another stealthy bio-tech I’ve been mentioning is [[SVA]] which had another solid day.  Last [[BIOS]] could take off at any time.    Or not.  I like it in the low 4’s.

As well, the commodites are working their tiny little mono-muscles .   General Jackson’s [[TC]] rebounded with great vigour (sic) and newly acquired [[TIE]] (non-Jackson) looks good too.  Even the PM’swere not pulling back with the vigour I expected from this mornings sad state of affairs.  My goodness, the worst hit Jacksonian was our highest flyer thus far, Mr. Anderson [[ANDE]], down a little over 3%.    By the way, if he could see his way to $28.40 tomorrow, or close thereby, he would offer an excellent entry for all those seeking his agrarian charms.  

Let’s look at the rest of the Jacksonian Core Holdings list, with attendant commentary:

Name 8-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 29.12 -3.09%   Finally backing off a hot run. $28.40 entry.
EGO       9.27 0.32%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
GDX     41.30 -0.07%   Got our $40 target and bounced at support.
GLD     93.56 -0.16%   Hung on 20-day and 78% long term fib.
IAG     10.21 1.49%   Beautiful hammer off support, could be ready again
MON     82.79 0.99%   Still battling.
NRP     23.93 -2.33%   Still struggling with that $24 line.
PAAS     21.50 -2.63%   Another long tail doji, good EOD volume.
RGLD     44.10 0.05%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SLV     14.76 -1.67%   Tested $14.50 early, then up the rest of the day.
SLW     10.18 -1.83%   Gapped down, bounced off support & finished up.
SSRI     22.13 -1.03%   Yet another hammer doji, this time on the 38% fib.
TBT     57.29 0.61%   $60 next stop.
TC       9.74 -1.81%   $10.96 near term target.  Another hammer doji.
TSO     15.68 0.77%   Wretched, but alive for today.
AVG   -0.69%    

Let’s hang together shall we?   I’d rather not hang separately.


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