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 I’m just not certain I can take it any longer.

You know I have a theory.  The theory goes like this (and I admit, up front, it’s far fetched)…  Sometime during the Cold War, certain powers that be in the U.S. and Europe decided, in the name of keeping the West free, to innoculate their states periodically with a nasty dose of tyrannical gov’t .   They did this knowing that electoral politics would eventually usher in a balancing freedom-oriented policy regime that would relax the tyrannical restraints and allow natural markets to “flush out” the body politic as it were, and restore the “classical” economy to it’s normal value-creating state of spreading prosperity.

A lot of people think that first post-War inoculation shot came with Jimmy Carter’s inept single term.  However, I believe Carter was really just the capper of a particularly loathsome trio that started with Lyndon Baines Johnson and was followed directly by Richard “Wage /Price Freeze” Nixon and his milquetoast second veep, Gerald Ford.  Those three created a cycle of war and inflation (Nixon took us off the gold standard for good as well) and stupid economy gumming regulation that culminated in the body politic crying Uncle for a respite.

In that regard, Reagan only had to do a few things, just as Romney will only have to do a few in January of 2013.  Like Reagan did, Romney will only have to undo some of the more illogical (and unrealistically ideological) regulatory burdens thrown up over the last six years since the Pelosi-Reid wagon rolled out of the 2006 electoral winner’s box.   Too, Romney will have to dismantle Obamacare, and that might get sticky, considering it’s tar-baby-like, multi-thousand page, unfunded legal status.   Tax reform will also take some hard work and many late night battles over ideology and dollars and cents (sense?)

But our economy is a funny thing.  It’s self-repairing for one thing.  In fact, ironically, all it really needs is for the beatings to cease for morale to really improve.  Everyone who ever got past elementary economics knows that does not mean blaming regulatorily-enforced high carbon fuel prices on “speculators” instead of on a police-state-level blind ideology that won’t take even the most elementary steps (Keystone is not just a great light beer, Mr. President) toward self-preservation.  Smart citizens — and even not so smart, but just not so readily blinded citizens — eventually grasp the simple basics of supply & demand, and from that can intuit where the power to manipulate markets really resides.

But the good news is that such dunce-cap buffoonery will soon be over.  The sleights of hand, the excuses and the kabuki grow wearisome for all but the most ardent of clinging acolytes.  The counter-scams and red herrings grow less comic and more maudlin.  Soon gone.

Soon.

Gone.

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SLW under $30, RGLD under $60 and EXK under $9.00 are birthday presents like not even Midas’s daughters received on the days of their betrothal.  If I get ten seconds of meeting-less, conference call-less bliss tomorrow, I may even pick up a bail of in the money options.

Bless you for your patience with me, and with our economy, ever resilient.

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Unless you are living the hermit’s life, under a rock within a deep dark Paleozoic cave, you are aware that next Saturday’s NCAA Final Four College Basketball Championship will feature two Kentucky rivals in a battle to determine who will represent the state in the National Championship game. Despite being a huge fan of the (currently) nine-point underdog Cardinals, I am experiencing Zen-like calm and good feeling.

You see, like with my “What Me Worry?” New York Giants earlier this year, I never expected the Cards to get past the second round of the Big East Tournament, never mind the far more expansive NCAA Tourney.  But like my Superbowl winning Giants, the Cards have considerably outperformed my expectations.  Using a mixture of psychotically wearying man/zone defense and pure will power, they have won their last eight games in a row, taking not only the Big East Title (like eventual NCAA winners UConn did in 2011), but also beating all reasonable odds to arrive in the Final Four this weekend.

They took out Michigan State like they were a bunch of soft muppet Goldman clients, not the eventual Tournament Champion I had slated the Spartans for in my personal brackets.  They followed that win by beating an absolutely on-fire, can’t-miss-three-point-shooting Florida Gator team seemingly through psychological intimidation alone.  It was truly miraculous, and I am now happy to the point where my inborn Irish sense of karma has me looking out for fast-approaching meteorites.

Because I can’t lose now, really.  No one expected my Cards to do this well, just like no one expected the Giants to get into the playoffs in early December.  Or to beat Green Bay or San Francisco (and not have to play New Orleans again!).  Therefore I am playing with house money right now…

And guess who has to win it all this year or be seen as ultimate chokers?  Do you think maybe it’s that team with the five “sure fire” top ten draft picks? The Blue people from down the road, east of us, in little Lexington?

Can you feel the warmth of my smile from here, my friends?

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On a more serious topic, I was also  going to write about the possible Civil War brewing with regard to the Supreme Court’s coming decisions regarding the Commerce Clause and its relation to Obamacare.   However, I don’t wish to spoil my current mellow mood, so I will hold off, probably until tomorrow.  Suffice it to say — for now — that this may be the most important Supreme Court decision since the New Deal Era (error?).

More tomorrow.  Let tonight be about the (relative) innocence of college hoops.

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As for the stocks and other investments this blog is supposed to be about, well, I felt good enough about the state of the dollar and the silver market to add a significant portion of SSRI to my portfolio.   I think it’s inexpensive here, frankly, and likely trade bait at some point.   That was all I added however, as I am still bound by caution here as we approach the end of the month and the Ides of May.

My best to you all.

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A Short Introduction To Louisville Hoop, Circa 2012:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9UI18nq6J4 450 300]

 

Enjoy!

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By A. E. Housman

 

 

 

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I want to thank the President for the belly laughs provided in tonight’s  State of the Union speech.  It’s good to know that when his political career is finished, he can always support Michelle and the girls by opening up for Chris Rock or Lewis C K.

Still getting over the stitch in my side from this quote:

I’m a Democrat.  But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed:  That Government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more.

This claim, mind you, came after he had just laid out a bunch of additional spending promises for (yet more) “new employment training,” extending tuition assistance,  low cost refinancing for underwater mortgages, and of course,  and even more subsidization of the multiple train wreck crony-chocked “clean energy” industry.

There was even more, of course.   Remember this gutbuster?

Let’s never forget:  Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a Government and a financial system that do the same.  It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom:  No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts.  An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody.

Again, the President said this after bragging about allegedly saving the auto industry by stealing it from bondholders and handing it to the UAW.  He said this whole promising the aforementioned mortgage bailouts and further subsidies of everything from windmills to egregious college tuitions.

A famous commentator today said to watch for the President bringing up “blueprints” for the future.  He mentioned that this was the mark of the Utopian… the “grand plan” of the beloved leader that if only followed, would lead us to prosperity.  Sure enough, the President used the term… twice.

In short, the speech was filled with the same Newspeak nonsense, class warfare, and promises to increase burdens on the private sector that have been the stock of the Obama Economic Takeover since the days when he was riding herd over both houses of Congress with Madame Pelosi and Harry Reid.

Admittedly the guy can deliver a speech as well as Billy “Smoove” Clinton.   He should take this comedy gold one the road in 2013.

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Meanwhile, back in the more serious climes of Superbowl host city Indianapolis, I was greatly disheartened after the GOP Response speech of “My Main Man Mitch” Daniels.

No, not because it was a poor response.  No.  In fact it may have been one of the most powerful — and most appropriate — responses to a Statist’s “blueprint” I’ve seen since the Reagan years.

No, my loss of heart was due to Mitch himself.  He was, from the very start of Obama’s Administration, my number one choice for the 45th President of the U.S.   He’s been nothing short of magnificent as an intelligent and powerful Mayor of Indianapolis, and later, Governor of Indiana.  He’s got a big brain and an outstanding temperament.   Unfortunately, it seems he loves his crazy wife more than he feels an obligation to the country.   That’s disappointing, to say the least.

Have a look at this incredible response, and reflect with me on what could have been:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSAmkDUi4PQ 450 300]

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CRAAPL crushed after the bell tonight, so I expect we should get more and more of the more tomorrow.  What’s more important to me is that the dollar continues to struggle and silver looks to be holding up in turn.   It remains to be seen what the POTUS’s speech does to the markets tomorrow, but I think I can state that there was nothing especially market moving in the entire catalogue.  The dollar will continue to call the tune.

God Save the U.S.

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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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It’s uncanny, isn’t it?  Jakerodamus provides you, just days ago, with predictions– like Rick Santorum coming in a very close second to Romney in Iowa– and poof!, that prediction comes true!   Recall also, that I predicted the same Santorum will come in a more distant, but still surprising, second in New Hampshire.   The rubber match will be South Carolina, which will force some sort of confrontation and quite possibly a mutual detente between those two leaders through the remaining primaries.  

What else did I say?  Oh yeah, something about gold, silver and earl, right?  So far, so good.

I’m probably going to bail on the ERX trade tomorrow, however, as I think we might get one or two more days of “jack” before that thing bangs against that $55 resistance and comes back down to fill that gap at around $47-ish:

 

 

I will also shave some NUGT tomorrow, although I think there are still some very good charts out there in the gold and silver, including AG, ANV, BAA, and EXK, and RGLD.  My little coal play, PCX also looks like it has some room to run, stochastically speaking.

To summarize, I am not ready throw the towel in on this grand first day leap, but I’m also playing “tight” right now, and keeping a keen sharp and wizened eye (of the sorcerer, Jakerodamus) on the dollar.  Make no mistake, the dollar will tell our tale here, good or bad.   If the dollar drops below $79.30, or if gold breaks above $1620, I’ll be adding again.

Best to you all.

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